Well, the Cincinnati Reds did not become the first team to have the exact same record for three-straight years, but they did lose exactly one more game than the last two years. Despite a year of confusion and frustration, there were a few good points. Let’s do the denial thing and recap the bits Reds fans had to smile about in 2018, in no particular order.
1. That point at the end of June/early July where the Reds chances at making the playoffs went from 0.00% to 0.03%. What a time to be a Reds fan and alive, in June 2018. Everyone was hitting, everyone was pitching, and everyone was winning. June and July went down as the only months of 2018 in which the Reds had a winning record. Remember what life was like back then? You talked about the Reds, you smiled about the Reds, and you cared about the daily results. Heck, you even wanted Jim Riggleman’s interim tag removed, right then. How you feeling about that today?
Whoops, sorry, this is a positive post, back to the happy. The Reds outscored their opponents 146 to 119 in June, batting a ridiculous .281 average and compiling an equally ridiculous (for 2018) team ERA of 4.06. That’s where anyone who does math somehow came up with the one single solitary scenario in which Cincinnati could make the postseason. When I think back on this year, I will remember this stretch, and especially the next bit…
2. All those grand slams they hit. I mean, c’mon. For a hot minute, when the Reds loaded the bases, you popped open a cold one, knowing you’d be seeing four runs put up on the board with one swing. The Reds hit 11 slams this year (you probably heard that number). In fact, as a team, Cincinnati hit .299 with the bases loaded, in 2018. Here’s a list of players who hit a bomb with all the deck stacked: Joey Votto (two), Adam Duvall (two), Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler, Jose Peraza, Jesse Winker, Anthony DeSclafani, and Michael Lorenzen.
Joey was just stupid with the bases juiced. He hit .429 in 14 at-bats, with his pair of dingers, a triple, a pair of doubles and two walks. In this tiny sample, Joseph Daniel slugged 1.143 and had a .500 on-base percentage. Despite his overall down year, when it comes to counting stats, nobody wanted to pitch to Joey with the bases loaded.
3. Jesse Winker will be here awhile. Despite enduring one of the handful of “will he start or will he sit” sagas, Winker etched his name in the Reds starting lineup, in the years to come. You may have forgotten about him, since he’s been shut down for a bit, now, due to injury, but let’s take a look.
He showed extraordinary discipline, a true mark of a Votto teammate, but did you also know he had success when aggressive? Winker compiled 13 hits (.361 average) when swinging at the first pitch, including a pair of homers. That’s not to say he should approach an AB with reckless abandon, as he showed poise in three-ball counts with a ridiculous .691 OBP. He will be a valuable on-base machine, in years to come, for the Reds.
4. Votto is a national treasure. Okay, so he didn’t hit a million home runs and failed to eclipse 70 million RBIs, Joey continued being Joey, despite some unluckiness with the counting stats. He joined the inner circle of inner circles, as far as baseball, by leading the NL in OBP (.417) for a seventh time in his career. He joins his idol, Ted Williams (12), Babe Ruth (10), Barry Bonds (10), Rogers Hornsby (7), and Ty Cobb (7). If etching his name next to those legends of baseball isn’t enough, then there’s always this:
5. Scooter Gennett is now someone you hate to see traded. There are objective arguments out there, most of which I agree with, that Scooter should be traded. “He’s blocking Nick Senzel,” or “He’s due for some regression” are a few of the many theoretical headlines around Gennett. One more that some talk about, but I believe warrants more attention, is he is due a big pay day, and pretty soon. With his resume he’s put together since being waived by Milwaukee (which as much as we Reds fans like to harp on, hasn’t seemed to hurt them too much) Scooter is set to have some generous negotiating kahones. Is that risk worth taking? Sure, he’s shown with his play this year that he is no fluke at the plate, but his glove leaves a lot to be desired. Anyway, those are all questions for later posts.
Scooter’s 2018 has looked like this:
He’s a guy that most fans, I believe, will be disappointed to see go, regardless of objectively acceptable outcomes.
6. The late inning guys took shape. This was supposed to be a “set the table” year, like James has said, a lot, on the podcast. It wasn’t in many areas, but it was, in some. The bullpen is a big one. Raisel Iglesias has been and will continue to be the closer. He got to 30 saves this year and, although he allowed a dozen long balls, remained the unquestioned best arm in this bullpen. Joining him are the two free agent acquisitions the Reds made, last offseason, in Jared Hughes and David Hernandez. Now, fatigue factored in, as the bullpen just got used and abused for a third-straight year, but Hughes and Hernandez showed good return on investment. When Hughes comes sprinting out of the bullpen to the mound, I do not have a feeling of uncertainty, I do not really worry, I feel like the door will close on the opposition’s scoring chances. Past them, Lorenzen was solid and Amir Garrett even emerged as a “closer-in-waiting” type guy, should Iggy get traded. I’m not worried, beyond being forced to pitch 600 innings again, about the bullpen next year.
Now that the most exciting part of 2018 for the Reds is beginning don’t forget to check in on Locked on Reds as we will have you covered!
Read The Room
David Bell has made some interesting choices, some that he may want to tweak his thought process on. Let me explain.
On Monday’s podcast my friend Jeff stated he liked the fact that David Bell was able to remove himself from the equations on many big decisions. He stated that by focusing on the analytics Bell is able to make an objective decision versus a gut decision. I won’t disagree with fact that I am loving the front office and managements use of analytics. I, like most Reds fans, love to see the organization finally joining this century of baseball thinking in full force, from an analytics stand point. However, while I do support the use of analytics in helping make decisions, I don’t feel as if it should be the sole reason for decision making.
The best managers in the history of this game are often forward-thinking and also having the right instinct at crucial points in games. I think the Reds, and even David Bell, are some of the most forward thinking in baseball right now. We have seen it in all the new positions created this offseason specifically for analytics within the Reds front office. The Reds outfielders carry cards based on each pitcher and each batter in where to align themselves. The infield is making unique shifts. Bell seems opposite of his predecessor, because he despises bunting frequently. The amazing performance by our pitching staff which has been one of the worst in recent years. I believe these things will continue to help this team as the season continues. I also believe it’s one of the main reasons we have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball right now.
On the flip side of this is the daily, head-scratching decisions Bell has made. The constant hooking of starting staff or bullpen pitchers too early. This isn’t just something making fans question his decisions, but his players as well. I have seen almost every starting pitcher this year, on at least one occasion, have a baffled look after being removed to early. Bell often pulling starters in a close game due to the “third time around the order” analytics. In regards to the bullpen often pulling relievers early who are up there throwing smoke and no one is touching them. All that started back on Opening Day when he used three relievers, each for one out in the bottom of the ninth. Then when it comes to the lineup we are often seeing players who may be crushing it that day pulled for favorable situational matchups such as lefty right or righty lefty. On several occasions I’ve seen him pull Dietrich or Winker when there out there hitting rockets just for an analytic advantage. It often causes me to yell at my television.
One of my favorite sayings is “READ THE ROOM”. Bell desperately needs to “READ THE ROOM” in more crucial situations. Leaving pitchers in to go one extra innning in a start or relief when there mowing batters over. Leaving a guy in the lineup who is on fire rather than pulling him for a analytic matchup. This shows faith in your players as well as your instincts as a manager. It’s what differentiates the best coaches from everyone else. It’s the knowledge that no amount of statistics can provide and it will ultimately be what puts this team over the top. In recent weeks I have seen signs of this coming to fruition. I hope to see more of it as the season goes on. And I promise you Reds fans when it does the most important statistic WINS will come much easier.
Reds Catchers Now and in the Future
Let’s take a look at the catching picture for the Reds organization.
In late September of 2017, the Cincinnati Reds locked up Tucker Barnhart to a 4-year, $16 million contract. And why not? Barnhart hit .270 in 2017 and was a gold glove winner. $4 million a year for him was a steal. Fans were ecstatic about the deal, especially at the price. Don’t get me wrong, having a catcher with a career average of .248 with about 10 home runs a year and a great glove is something most teams are satisfied with. It’s more about what he does with the pitching staff and defense than the hitting. But in 2019, although only 100 at-bats in, how concerned should Reds fans be about their catching situation now and in the future?
The Reds currently have two active catchers: Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali. Barnhart has struggled mightily out of the gate. A .160/.282/.270 line is not anywhere close to his career numbers. Adding to that, he only has two hits in the past 10 games. A switch hitter with only 10 at bats versus Left-handed pitchers tells us Bell wants Casali taking those at-bats.
Curt Casali has put together a great season for the Reds. Acquired off waiver last year from Tampa Bay he hit .310 before the All-Star break. In 2019 he is hitting to the tune of .293/.349/.379. When used as a pinch hitter, he’s delivered at times for the Reds. Although Casali is the better hitter so far, I do not think it is time to give up on Barnhart. 100 at-bats into a season with plenty to go. *Deep breath* He can still put together a decent season. Something needs to change though, drastically. Right now, the Reds have bigger issues than the catcher’s spot. But will Casali take reigns as the team’s number one catcher? A lot of fans are calling for it. Keep in mind Casali is a career .229 hitter. He has been streaky in the past. The Reds will probably continue to platoon and giving at-bats to Casali against left-handed pitchers. 2019 catcher situation is pretty much locked in. The depth at AAA Louisville are not “prospects” and haven’t shown to be MLB hitters either. The question is what will it look like in the future?
Tyler Stephenson is one of the top prospects in the Reds organization (#6 mlb.com) and is showing his potential this year in Chattanooga. A first-round pick in 2015, he’s struggled with injuries early in his career and is now showing his potential. Hitting .267 with 3 HR and 18 RBI while throwing out 26% of baserunners is a nice start to the first part of the season. He won’t be in Cincinnati this year, who knows where he will start next year, but he plays into the future of the Reds.
There are some other options in the minors. Chris Okey (#30 Reds prospect) was drafted in the second round of 2016 but has really struggled with the bat. Hendrik Clementina (#23 Reds prospect) is someone to watch. He was acquired in the Tony Cingrani trade and hit 18 home runs with Dayton in 2018. He has some pop and but also strikes out too much. We all know how frustrating that can be. Other than those 3, the Reds do not have another top 30 catching prospects. A thin position of depth look for the Reds to bring in more talent this year.
The Reds catching future is banking on Stephenson and Barnhart to be the guys. That could end up being just fine, but it also doesn’t leave much room for error. Casali has two arbitration year left and is 30 years old. He could be a Red past this year, sure. Good catchers are hard to find and that’s why the asking price is so high (paging JT). I would expect the Reds to try to add depth here through the draft or offseason. The quick fix would be Tucker returning closer to 2017 form but who knows if that will happen.
What The Reds Should Be
Wednesday night was a glimpse at this team’s potential.
If you were able to witness tonight’s win over the scorching hot Chicago Cubs you were probably ecstatic. It was a comeback win, in extra innings, and a one-run game. In a season clouded by early disappointment and many missed opportunities, tonight we witnessed the Reds full potential.
This game had all the markings of what was shaping up to be another Reds loss. A five-inning start by the pitcher, playing from behind almost the entire game, and constant pitching changes. Instead the Reds played together and won, as a team. The chemistry we see off the field was finally seen on the field. The bullpen stepped up when they needed to. Stephenson, Hughes, Peralta, and Garrett all providing top notch performances. Garrett making what seemed to be an impossible out at first to save a run from scoring. When providing a clutch at-bat was needed, we saw it from nearly everyone put on the spot. Senzel with 2 hits and 2 stolen bases. Iglesias continues to be the Reds MVP of position players having a double and solo home run to keep the Reds in contention. Suarez starting to catch fire with a 3-for-5 evening, 3 RBI’s, a double, and a 2 run HR in the eighth inning to tie up the game. Quietly, Joey Votto was the one who actually came up big, in the clutch, during the eighth, with a single. He then scored on Suarez’s dinger. Then again in the 10th inning with a one-out walk. For the icing on the cake the player all of Cincinnati wants to see perform comes up to seal the deal. And most importantly the extra innings walk-off hit by Puig with a bat flip for Reds highlight reels for years to come happened.
What made it most glorious was the absolute look of disappointment on Cubs fans faces as the Reds came back to pull off the comeback win. Wednesday, we saw the Reds full potential as a team. This is the Reds ceiling as a team performance. I hope we grow accustomed to this scene more often and start to see them compete in this division. There is no doubt they are in the toughest division in baseball. That being said, they can absolutely shake things up whenever they decide to get hot. I know it’s possible. I just hope it’s not too late when it does.