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Read The Room

David Bell has made some interesting choices, some that he may want to tweak his thought process on. Let me explain.

Dave Pemberton

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© David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

On Monday’s podcast my friend Jeff stated he liked the fact that David Bell was able to remove himself from the equations on many big decisions. He stated that by focusing on the analytics Bell is able to make an objective decision versus a gut decision. I won’t disagree with fact that I am loving the front office and managements use of analytics. I, like most Reds fans, love to see the organization finally joining this century of baseball thinking in full force, from an analytics stand point. However, while I do support the use of analytics in helping make decisions, I don’t feel as if it should be the sole reason for decision making.

The best managers in the history of this game are often forward-thinking and also having the right instinct at crucial points in games. I think the Reds, and even David Bell, are some of the most forward thinking in baseball right now. We have seen it in all the new positions created this offseason specifically for analytics within the Reds front office. The Reds outfielders carry cards based on each pitcher and each batter in where to align themselves. The infield is making unique shifts. Bell seems opposite of his predecessor, because he despises bunting frequently. The amazing performance by our pitching staff which has been one of the worst in recent years. I believe these things will continue to help this team as the season continues. I also believe it’s one of the main reasons we have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball right now.

On the flip side of this is the daily, head-scratching decisions Bell has made. The constant hooking of starting staff or bullpen pitchers too early. This isn’t just something making fans question his decisions, but his players as well. I have seen almost every starting pitcher this year, on at least one occasion, have a baffled look after being removed to early. Bell often pulling starters in a close game due to the “third time around the order” analytics. In regards to the bullpen often pulling relievers early who are up there throwing smoke and no one is touching them. All that started back on Opening Day when he used three relievers, each for one out in the bottom of the ninth. Then when it comes to the lineup we are often seeing players who may be crushing it that day pulled for favorable situational matchups such as lefty right or righty lefty. On several occasions I’ve seen him pull Dietrich or Winker when there out there hitting rockets just for an analytic advantage. It often causes me to yell at my television.

One of my favorite sayings is “READ THE ROOM”. Bell desperately needs to “READ THE ROOM” in more crucial situations. Leaving pitchers in to go one extra innning in a start or relief when there mowing batters over. Leaving a guy in the lineup who is on fire rather than pulling him for a analytic matchup. This shows faith in your players as well as your instincts as a manager. It’s what differentiates the best coaches from everyone else. It’s the knowledge that no amount of statistics can provide and it will ultimately be what puts this team over the top. In recent weeks I have seen signs of this coming to fruition. I hope to see more of it as the season goes on. And I promise you Reds fans when it does the most important statistic WINS will come much easier.

I grew up engulfed in baseball. My grandfather had season tickets for the Reds from 1970 until 2002. I was raised in a neighborhood that was essentially the Sandlot set in the 1990's but with even more kids. We played from the minute we woke up until it was too dark to see the ball. Then we'd spend the night at someones house playing baseball video games, talking about baseball cards, or watching it on television. I idolized Barry Larkin as fielder, hitter, and leader. I was fortunate enough to play baseball through high school. Now I am a registered nurse, married way out of my league, and have two amazing kids that will exceed anything I ever do in this life. I am fortunate enough to have a Reds season ticket package with my close friends and family. The Reds ballpark is my second home. Baseball has provided me with some of my most treasured memories shared over four generations.

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Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds Bounce Back & Break Out: Infield

Who will bounce back in the Cincinnati Reds infield, and who will break out?

Clay Snowden

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As it stands today, 1/11/2021, the Reds infield situation looks very similar to their 2020 situation. Galvis and Casali are gone, but most everyone else is back. Votto is a year older while Stephenson and Garcia headline the youth movement. Veterans Eugenio Suarez and Mike Moustakas look to rebound after average seasons. Although I think another MLB caliber middle infielder will be added, we will work with what is currently on the roster.

 

Bounce Back: Eugenio Suarez (.202/.312/.470 15 HR 102 OPS+)

The Alfredo Simon trade (lol), the HR record, the team friendly deal, the huge smile and big bubble gum bubbles are a few of the many reasons we all love Suarez. With HR numbers increasing year after year big things were in store for Geno in 2020. Sadly, I think the offseason shoulder injury played into his slow 2020.

The batting average and on base % took a dive. Around .270 avg and .360 OBP was the standard in previous years but an absolutely terrible start to the season really set things back. However, he improved his average and OBP and Slugging every month of the season.

July: .080/.258/.120

August: .213/.315/.489

September: .228/.326/.557

An entire offseason to get healthy and get right should lead to more of what we expect from the star third baseman. Getting his shoulder back to where it needs to be is crucial. He’s still only 29 years old and is in his prime. Strikeout numbers are something we’ll probably just have to live with (the case for many HR hitters). A bounce back year would help this Reds team add to what was a lackluster offense at times.

Honorable Mention: Every other starter 

Just look at the stats 

 

Breakout: Tyler Stephenson (.294/.400/.647 2 HR 17 AB 170 OPS+)

We all know the Tyler Stephenson story. His big homerun on his debut was a moment we will not forget. A 2015 first round selection, the fans have been waiting patiently for Stephenson to contribute. It always takes catchers longer and his injuries did not help. The glimpse that we saw in 2020 has us excited for what the future holds.

The Reds moving on from Curt Casali leaves the door open for Stephenson to be on the roster. Tucker is back after adding his second gold glove to the collection, but I don’t think that holds Stephenson to a reserve role. Tyler will get plenty of chances to start. His bat is something that Tucker simply cannot match and this Reds team needs more offense from the catching position. Prepare yourself for some growing pains. Not necessarily like what we saw from Jose Garcia, but Stephenson has very little experience and will take some time to adjust. We haven’t seen enough of his defense to make too strong of judgement but working with Tucker daily should help immensely.

Honorable Mention: Jose Garcia 

The talent is there, but his youth and lack of experience showed. Hopefully, another offseason under his belt will help. The Reds likely will add a veteran to help ease him along. 


Several Reds infielders had a down 2020. Hell, most of us had a down 2020. This team is better than what they showed in the shortened season. If a few of them can get back to the numbers on the back of their baseball cards, I think the Reds will be fine.

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Cincinnati Reds Bounce Back and Break Out: Starters

Who will impress us on the mound this year for the Reds that we don’t necessarily expect?

Clay Snowden

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I started this series, “A Bounce Back and a Breakout”, last season. It will be a four part series including outfielders, infielders (with catchers), starters, and bullpen. It is pretty much exactly what it sounds like. I will pick a player to break out and a player who had a down year to bounce back.

 

Let’s get things started with, well, the starters.

 

Bounce Back: Wade Miley ( 0-3 5.65 EERA 14.1 innings 86 ERA+ )

For most of his career, Miley was a *fine* pitcher. About league average. Then in 2018, at 31, he had a breakout year with Milwaukee and pitching coach Derek Johnson. This caught the eyes of many and landed him a deal with Houston in 2019 where he pitched pretty well, but nowhere near is 2018 form. Last season (his first with the Reds) was injury plagued but even when he did pitch it wasn’t very pretty. A veteran lefty could really help the rotation. His fastball velocity in 2020 was atrocious, while his fastball spin and curve spin where around average.

The hope is being reunited with Derek Johnson could help him get back to his 2018 numbers. While that didn’t happen in 2020, a healthy 2021 still leaves a glimmer of hope. At 34 years old and more mediocre baseball than good baseball shown in his career, I am not expecting Miley to fill a hole Bauer left or anything close to it. I expect him to battle for the fifth starter spot, or even a bullpen spot. Regardless of his role, he is a better pitcher than 2020 showed.

Honorable Mention: Jose De Leon (0-0 18.00 ERA 6 innings)

Once a top prospect, De Leon has struggled with injuries and consistency leading to a lackluster career so far. He wasn’t given much of an opportunity last season, but his winter ball performances this year are showing promise. 3.18 ERA in 17 innings 31 K’s and 10 BB. Walk numbers are still high, but De Leon is a long shot but someone who qualifies as a bounce back due to his poor numbers in the past.

 

Break Out: Tyler Mahle (2-2 3.59 ERA 47.2 innings 60 K’s 133 ERA+)

I know Mahle might not be thought of as a candidate for a breakout considering his success. However, I think there is an even higher level for Tyler to reach. Bauer most likely being gone hurts. Anytime you have a Cy Young walk out the door there will be big shoes to fill. Mahle has all of the talent and finally will have a chance to be a top 3 guy.

Some good numbers, and some elite numbers. I think so many people, myself included, wrote Mahle off at times. He was still so young when he was brought up and then his usage was kind of funky. He is 26 now and ready to take over a bigger role and I cannot wait to see what 2021 has in store for him.

Honorable Mention: Tejay Antone

To be honest, I would have had Antone has the breakout player for 2021, but I am not 100% sure what his role would be. I want him to be in the rotion, but we will wait and see. Either way, what we all saw in 2020 left our jaws on the floor. Antone’s spin rates are off the charts. The former 5th round pick from 2014 will have a big role with the Reds team, but what exactly that role will be is unknown.

 

In conclusion, the Reds are still looking like they will have a good rotation even without Bauer. If they keep Gray and Castillo that leaves Mahle, Miley, Antone, De Leon, Hoffman, Greene, Lodolo, Lorenzen (?) and others to fill out the 5 spots. These things always work their way out, but I like the options this team has.

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Jose Garcia and the 2021 Cincinnati Reds SS Plan

What is going on at shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds?

Clay Snowden

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Take us back to March. You know, before the world ended. An aggressive offseason of adding in free agency, the excitement of spring training with legit playoff hopes, and the breakout of the big-time prospect Jose Garcia. Oh man did he come on the scene with a BOOM. He contributed four spring training bombs, 7 hits, a double, and sky-high Barry Larkin like expectations.

Many were high on the Cuban shortstop, but they understood where his development was. He needed more time. He needed AA and AAA adjustments. Without minor league baseball, the small glimpse of spring training excellence was used by many (myself included at times) as a cry for help. A hero to save the lifeless Reds. Well, on August 27th fans got their wish. And Garcia delivered with a hit, walk, and a stolen base. He had a 3 game hitting streak to start his career. However, Garcia did not save the Reds. In fact, his .194/.206/.194 and 7 OPS+ (100 in MLB average) left many fans asking “What happened?” “ Is this really the guy going forward?” Let’s dive in.

At 22 years old, the jury is still out on Garcia. No one has ever doubted his talent, but I think he was just not ready for MLB baseball. I get the move at the time. The Reds needed something and two headed monster of Galvis and Farmer at short was in need of an upgrade. Bring up your SS of the future and let him learn on the fly. You’ll never know what will happen until you try it. And I tip my cap to the Reds for actually doing it. It did not turn out how we all wanted it, but they did something to try to spark the team.

In terms of development, I am not sure how it will change Garcia. MLB talent was overwhelming for him, but maybe it was better than just playing in Prasco all year. If there was a minor league season, obviously Garcia would have been playing in it. That would have been best case scenario for 2020. But there wasn’t a season so plan B happened. Now we just wait and see how he develops. But what’s the plan for SS in 2021?

As it stands today, Garcia, Blandino, and Farmer are the only rostered players with SS experience. I can tell you right now, that will not be the case come Opening Day. The direction that most, including myself, think the Reds go is adding a veteran to fill in for a year or two. This allows Garcia to develop and not have all the pressure on him while also having a proven (and hopefully above average) veteran to hold down the position. The consensus top 3 available FA are : Semien, Didi, and Simmons. Of the three, I want the Reds to go Semien here. Semien had a monster year in 2019 (3rd in MVP) while putting up a 139 OPS+, his only season over 100 OPS+. He came back down to earth in 2020, but at 29 years old he can do a one year prove it deal to still land one last big contract, or take a 2-3 year deal for good money and eventually give up the starting spot in a year or two and be a solid back up infielder. With Didi taking the prove it deal last year, and performing well, I think he is looking to get longer term at 30 years old. Simmons is the oldest of the 3 at 31, but he is still productive. He seems to have a good offensive season every once in a while, but his glove carries him most years. I am not sold on any of these 3 being high level players, but I think Didi has the best shot at that. I just don’t think the Reds are a fit with what he will want/get.

Bottom line, I still think Garcia is the future. The Reds have struggled to lock down the SS spot since Larkin, and Garcia seems like the most talented of the bunch to get a shot. We know the Reds cannot go into 2021 with the Freddy Galvis’ of the world and expect this team to improve. Let’s hope Garcia explodes onto the scene in 2021, and SS becomes the least of our worries.

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