The best part of the 2019 Cincinnati Reds lineup is for the first time since, probably, the 1999 team, they have a ton of depth and versatility. Besides maybe Barnhart there is a real possibility that all of the rest of the starting regulars have an average of .275 or greater. That doesn’t include a bench with several players likely to bat over or close to that as well. They could also bat lefty righty from the 1-8 lineup positions if they wanted to as well. I don’t think there is any fixed way you will see the lineup for the first few months of the season because it has incredible flexibility. I’m going to take a stab at what I think the Opening Day lineup will be.
There is only one guy I have even heard mentioned as hitting leadoff and that’s Winker. The guy is an on base machine. He had a .299 AVG and a .405 OBP which was one of the best in the league until he was injured. I was listening to an interview with Winker on the Reds Hot Stove league where he stated his shoulder had not been right since college. If he’s been playing his entire time with the Reds with a bum shoulder I’m interested to see what he can do with one at full strength.
The second spot seems like will be either Senzel’s or Peraza’s. Senzel is listed as one of the top-10 prospects in all of MLB. His career minor league AVG of .314 and OBP of .390 shows that he can provide consistent opportunities to be score runs. Pereza was the silent killer last year. He amounted 182 hits, 85 runs, and 23 stolen bases. Although I am not one to think much of Spring Training games the dude is on FIRE right now. Both Pereza and Senzel also help to add some speed at the top of a slow lineup.
The third spot seems to be Votto’s as usual. Although I think there is a slight chance he bats second. Votto is poised to have a bounce back year. Even Votto himself stated he was disappointed in his performance. Despite that he still led the lead in OBP and made the All-Star team. Even more important this will without a doubt be THE best lineup Votto has been apart of during his career. No longer can they simply pitch around him. Plus the two batters in front of him should consistently get on base possibly helping to boost some of Votto’s power numbers.
These spots are probably the most up in the air position in the lineup. I would have to imagine its almost locked in stone to be some combination of Gennett, Suarez, and Puig. None of them will stay the same and probably go to the hot hand from week to week.
In following the lefty righty theme, I would go with Suarez, Scooter, and Puig in that order. Most fans will tell you Puig has to bat fourth because he’s going to hit over 40 dingers and a grand slam every month if you bat him fourth at GABP. Suarez who had his breakout season last year seems like the smarter bet. He hammered 34 HR’s, 104 RBI’s, 283 AVG, and 366 OBP during the 2018 season. That was without a stacked lineup too. I expect him to continue to put up the big numbers we have seen in a Reds uniform from him. What many thought would be a regression year turned out to be even better. Gennett tied Suarez for a team best 4.2 WAR. He has stated he wants to be in a Reds uniform after this season. I’m confident he will make it difficult for the Reds not to offer him an extension. Puig has not even played a game yet and is already the most talked about player on this team. He is without a doubt the most exciting player on the field because of his antics. And I mean that in a good way. However his numbers in recent years don’t show me that he needs to be batting clean up like most fans are probably anticipating. Even if he is batting sixth I still expect him to have a career season. Puig’s playing in GABP (a hitter friendly park), playing nearly every game, the fans are behind him 100%, and most importantly a contract year.
In a recent Bleacher Report Puig was quoted saying “The last couple years, I didn’t work hard because I still have a contract to go. Now I think I’ll work hard more than any year in my life.” Everything about his introduction to Reds Country lead me to believe he’s right. As far as extending his contract that may be a different story. For the 2019 season however Puig is my friend. I’m all in on him so much so I bought a t-shirt jersey.
I would assume the seven spot has belong to either Senzel or Peraza as well. The only person that may take this spot is the person to beat out Senzel for center field like Kemp or Schebler.
Eighth spot seems to be a lock for Tucker Barnhart. While never a better than average hitter, he makes up for his lack of a bat with his gold glove defense. Barnhart also seems to provide good leadership and dependability to the pitching staff.
My Guesstimate Opening Day Lineup 1. Winker- LF 2. Pereza- SS 3. Votto- 1B 4. Suarez- 3B 5. Gennett- 2B 6. Puig- RF 7. Senzel- CF 8. Barnhart- C
I would also like to add I pray they add the DH this year or next to the National League. Having to sit people like Kemp, Dietrich, Schebler, and Ervin consistently just isn’t fair.
The Cincinnati Reds and the 20 Pitch Limit
When it comes to quirky early Cactus League season games, there’s a lot to know. One this is the 20-pitch limit a manager can invoke on an inning his guy is getting clobbered in. The Cincinnati Reds have already done this.
This Spring has seen an interesting beginning in that teams have smaller rosters than normal (though still plenty of players to go around) and they can choose to play shorter games. One other added wrinkle of differentness is the ability of a manager to “throw in the towel” whenever his pitcher reaches 20 pitches in an inning.
The Reds have already taken advantage of this twice, both during the beat down at the hands of the Athletics. Sal Romano got the curtain pulled on him in the fourth inning while Shane Carl heard the music in the fifth. These don’t necessarily paint a larger picture, as of yet, but it is interesting to note.
Carle doesn’t factor into the equation that is the Opening Day roster, but Big Sal surely does. He is out of minor league options (meaning he’d have to clear waivers to be assigned a minor league team) and he has shown some flashes of talent in the past. He could be valuable depth for the Reds bullpen, so calling it quits after 20 tosses (which frankly were all a consequence of Nick Senzel misplaying a ball early in the inning) doesn’t mean he’s out, but it is something to watch.
We’ll keep track here on the blog for more 20-pitch tap-outs.
Cincinnati Reds Roster Breakdown: Non Roster Invitees
Let’s take a look at the non-roster invitees trying to make the Cincinnati Reds roster during this Spring Training
WELCOME BAAAAAAACK! The Reds kick off the 2021 season on Sunday with their first spring training game. As I do each spring training, I am going to take a look at the non roster invitees (NRI) and how they could impact the team this season.
R.J. Alaniz, Matt Ball, Cam Bedrosian, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle, Josh Osich, Branden Shipley, Bo Takahashi
You might recognize a couple of these names. Alaniz has been around the organization the past couple of years and pitched 11.2 innings with the Reds in 2019. Biddle was a guy who was around last year, but the others are new. Carle (76.1 in), Osich (206.1 in), Shipley (100 in) have experience in the show with moderate results. Cam Bedrosian is the name to know here. The fact that he was signed on with a minor league deal is surprising. 277.2 innings with a 3.70 ERA has been a solid MLB pitcher. 2019 batters hit .207/.283/.336 and in 2020 they hit .196/.276/.255. His spin rate is gritty darn good honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a minor league deal that really is a promise on the roster. Think Jose Iglesias who was also a NRI a couple years back. This allows the Reds to delay their decision on making a 40 man roster move.
For a team that lost Rasiel Iglesias, Bradley, maybe Antone and Lorenzen to the rotation, Bedrosian will have a chance to really earn a legit role with this team. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a scenario where Shipley or Carle get innings this year.
Bittle and Osich are lefties that would have battled for the other LHP spot in the pen, but the signing of Doolittle bumps them to depth roles.
A 33 year old catcher with 37 at bats and a career .108 avg. Id say that there is not much to see here. Stephenson and Tucker are the one two punch and the offseason addition of Deivy Grullon will provide a younger depth option with a higher upside than Gale.
Cheslor Cuthbert, Dee Strange-Gordon (not listed on Reds roster yet)
Cuthbert isn’t a household name, but he does have over 1,000 at bats in the MLB. He had a decent season in ’16 with the Royals batting .274/.318/.413 and 12 HR, but he hasn’t shown enough to be a full time MLB player. Corner infield depth.
Here’s where I stand on Dee….If he is here to battle for a utility role, that’s fine with me. If he is here to be some variation of an answer at SS, we are in trouble. A 32 year old poor defender (who on the Reds isn’t at this point) who doesn’t have any power and doesn’t get on base. Yeah, he has stolen some bases. We all know speed is one of the first things to go when you age, and he still has some jump, but I don’t think it’s game changing speed at this point, and it’s useless unless he’s on base. I’m not high on Strange Gordan making an impact.
Nicky Delmonico, Tyler Naquin, Dwight Smith
I was worried about the Reds outfield depth. It’s a sneaky need, especially of Aquino doesn’t bounce back. This group of NRI is a group I am excited about. All have MLB experience and have had their moments. Delmonico had a nice (small sample size) rookie year with the White Sox in 2017, but has been worse each year since then. It’s the other two that catch my eye.
Dwight Smith has shown he has some pop in his bat. He is the type of player that you want to have in AAA ready to fill in if needed. Tyler Naquin is a guy I think could actually contribute to this team. We know 2020 was a small sample size, but look at the hard hit and exit velo. And his outfield jump/Outs above avg. fit in well with the team that doesn’t seem to care about defense.
He had a great rookie year in ’16, and has had moments since. .288/.325/.467 10 HR 19 2B in 2019 would be a good bench bat. The question is…is he better than Aquino/Heineman/Payton? Him and Payton are the two leftieis of the group. At the very least, I think he is great organizational depth, and I think his floor is a higher floor than the group listed above (maybe Aquino can make me eat crow there)
This list is different than most years. Not as many players listed, and no prospects. The number of players at Spring Training will be smaller than years past. Overall, I think theres 2-3 guys who could earn a role on the Reds 2021 roster.
Monday Morning Manager: The Snell Effect
David Bell has many things he needs to go right in order to win games and get a contract extension. One thing he can control is a decision-making process that should not be made entirely analytically.
In case you lived under a rock last year (and that might be Truer than in any other year) then you know how the World Series went down with the Rays falling to the Dodgers. You may even know about Blake Snell’s improbable removal from Game Six when he was absolutely on fire. This is something David Bell cannot mess up in 2021.
Ok, so in the grand scheme of things, I’m talking about the correct managing of the bullpen and rotation in pressure situations. Most people will look at the Game Six managing of Kevin Cash and see two things: a man sticking to his system that got him there and a man over-thinking things. Neither thoughts are incorrect.
In this day and age of baseball, most people understand statistical evaluations on pitchers favoring removing a starter before they pitch to the opposing lineup for the third time in a game. Well, maybe, because the numbers are a bit different in 2020, small sample size, and all. In fact, the Reds pitching staff held opponents to a .599 OPS in 253 plate appearances the third time through the order, last year. That may be a smoke screen, though, as the 2019 Reds pitching staff (largely similar to 2020) allowed an OPS of .892 in 799 PA. That’s a bit of a more reliable sample size, which would leave me to believe a starter pitching a third time through the order isn’t the most favorable idea.
Also something David Bell must consider is the overthinking aspect. In this Player’s Tribune post by the man, Blake Snell, himself, he points out the immense effect that simply seeing someone warming up in the bullpen had on him. Now, you can say “Well, that shouldn’t have been an issue, he should have sucked it up and pitched!” The dude is a human being. If you saw the person management was likely to replace you with if you messed something up at your job, are you going to just keep on keeping on with no thought to look over your shoulder? If you are, you might be a Jedi. Most of us mere mortals have problems with worrying about what might happen if things fall apart. Baseball players are not totally immune to this, either.
In order for Bell to garner a contract extension, he will have to adeptly manage a pitching staff that has talent, but also has human egos. Just because the numbers say that a decision should go one way, the human element must also be factored in. Last I checked, theres no button for that on a calculator, which leaves it up to his own decision-making skill.