Who are these Reds?
They are surely not the 3-18 Reds of April 22 or the 19-37 Reds of May 29 or the 22-43 Reds of June 9.
By June 9 and 21 games under .500 we were seeing more things we liked out of this team than we saw in April. But we didn’t see a 19-8 stretch coming. That was as unlikely as Tuesday night’s seven-run, two-out, ninth-inning rally to beat the Cleveland Indians 7-4.
Today the Reds are 41-51, 14 games out of first place in the NL Central, still in last place by 1.5 games and 10 games out of the second wild-card spot occupied by the 50-40 Atlanta Braves. Yes, even getting into real contention at this point is a long shot, but at least this stretch has made us curious enough to check the standings.
For almost a month, the Reds are playing like a 90-plus win team. They now have a 1 percent chance to make the postseason according to the projections on fivethirtyeight.com. Who thought that could happen.
The past four weeks — and the four previous to that to a lesser extent — have confirmed what I thought at the beginning of the season. This teams is not half of a rebuild away from contending. This team is only a couple key pieces and more experience away from playing meaningful games in September of 2019. In April, we wondered if a rebuild reboot was needed. It is not. Add a starter or two — not three or four — and tweak the lineup.
The Reds are second in the league in on-base percentage. You can live with two or three players being below average in OBP in a lineup like that. Losing magnifies the weaker links in the lineup, and no lineup is ideal. This team can win with Peraza’s bat and Barnhart’s bat.
A better hitting center fielder would be nice. And I’m all for a move that would be a hitting upgrade that doesn’t sacrifice defense. Billy Hamilton has been a big part of this 19-8 stretch. He scores at a higher rate when he gets on base and right now he’s getting on base.
I don’t expect the Reds to move on from Hamilton yet. They are going to see how the rest of this month goes at the least. If he becomes old Billy again this month, they will trade him if anybody wants him. If not, don’t be surprised if he is the starting center fielder next year. Not saying that’s the best move, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Last week I wrote about lineups I like based on the current roster and a future one based on the assumption that Scooter Gennett and Adam Duvall will be traded to put Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel in the lineup every day.
This team can win with Hamilton being average or close to it at getting on base. Imagine a postseason series with Billy getting on base a lot.
Dick Williams is on record that the payroll will increase next year. He wasn’t specific, but if his words didn’t mean that he will go find one or two good starting pitchers then trust will be lost.
The youngsters are growing, and Anthony DeSclafani’s comeback is encouraging. But a No. 1 starter is a must. Williams should not wait to see if DeSclafani, Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle is going to become a shutdown ace. Go get one and maybe you end up with three or four above-average starters and one or two average starters.
The potential for a rotation that reminds us of Cueto, Bailey, Latos, Leake and Arroyo is possible. But to be there next year requires a big addition like the Latos move accomplished.
To get the great No. 1 requires a trade. There are too many factors in trades to speculate with any reasonable certainty. The free agent market is different. Most of the available starters are getting too old for for more than a one- or two-year contract.
But there are three pitchers who will be available at a favorable age:
Patrick Corbin: He’s making $7.5 million for Arizona this season. He was a second-round pick in 2009, is a second-time all-star and turns 29 on July 19. He has a career-low 3.09 ERA this year and is hitting the peak age range for a pitcher. Corbin could be affordable with a good upside as his 2.70 xFIP suggests.
Dallas Keuchel: He will be 31 and pushing the age level I am comfortable with for more than a two-year contract. He’s making $13.2 million with the Astros and unlikely to command much more than that unless he is World Series MVP. His only rough year since he became a full-time starter in 2012 was 2016. He’s been average this season with a 3.95 ERA and a 3.66 xFIP. He’s also been to the top personally (2015 Cy Young winner) and with his team. He would be a good mentor to younger pitchers.
Matt Harvey: Trade him and then try to sign him if he finishes the season well could be a good strategy. Harvey will be 30 at the start of next season and is making $5.6 million this year. He should be affordable. His 3.79 ERA and 4.09 FIP in 11 starts with the Reds and the way he is trending make it tempting for the Reds to keep him and sign him. That decision would be difficult to disagree with, but the trade-then-sign strategy is sound.
The 2018 roster is doing all it can to win. Now it’s up to Dick Williams, Nick Krall and the check writers to give the 2019 roster a chance to be even better.
Remembering Reds: Corky Miller
Among the Reds’ fan favorites is a man not known for his statistical achievements, but for simply how awesome he was.
Morgan, Bench, Robinson, Larkin, and Miller. All names that Reds fans recog…wait, Miller? As in Corky Miller? Absolutely. Corky Miller, the minor league catcher with 539 career MLB at bats. The Miller that holds a career .193/.277/.306 53 OPS+ and a 0.0 WAR, yet everyone knows his name. And adores him. His stats won’t jump off the page, but his laid back attitude and fu Manchu leave a mark on your memory.
Signed by the Reds in 1998, Miller did not reach the show until 2001. In his 11 year career spanning from 2001-2013 (didn’t appear in 2011/2012) Miller never played more than 39 games in one season. So how did he become a household name? Well, probably because he looks more like your fun uncle than your favorite team’s catcher. Now don’t get me wrong, Corky brought value to the teams he was on. He was as much as a coach/mentor as he was a ballplayer. You will still find him in the Reds organization helping the young catchers develop. Let’s take a look at some of Corky’s highlights.
Corky steals home
When you think about baseball players stealing home you might immediately think about the great Jackie Robinson sliding in against the Yankees as Yogi Berra losses his mind at the “safe” call. Hell, you might even think about Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez pulling off the impossible feat in the last scene of the Sandlot. Well, Corky Miller joined this elite group on September 27th, 2001. As Omar Daal of the Phillies threw to first Miller showed off his wheels as his much slimmer self had a perfect slide under the tag. Miller walked back to the dugout as if he’s done this 1,000 times. Incredible swagger.
The Dancing KING
Fast forward to late June 2013. Miller finds himself back in a Reds uniform for the first time since 2010. Looking more like the Corky we know and love, sporting the fu Manchu, Miller shows off his quick footwork. Juan Uribe flies out to Jay Bruce who’s throw home took Corky off to the left of home. Hanley Ramirez, not the best baserunner himself, runs past home, retreats, dances around the grounded Miller only to be tagged on the third attempt while flailing towards home. This is so ugly that it is absolutely beautiful.
The Next Cy Young
Corky was more than a catcher and fan favorite. He was an elite pitcher. Well, maybe not elite. Over his career in the minors he pitched 7.2 innings and surrendered 14 hits, 13 earned runs and struck out 2. But in 2012 while playing for the Louisville Bats he pitched a scoreless inning. Down 13-0 in the bottom of the 8th, Miller came in to throw some rainbows in the general direction of home plate. A fly out to left, a pop out to first, and a fly out to right Miller put down the Columbus batters in order.
While his career might not stand out, Miller’s impact has. One of the beloved players in the clubhouse, he has mentored many young catchers along the way. Here’s to many more great years to Corky!
How a Shortened Season can Help and Hurt the Reds
step back and attempt to look at the way the Reds can benefit from a possible shortened season and how it could hurt them.
The world is in an obscure and unsure place. Today we were supposed to be watching a parade and cheering on the Redlegs. Instead, we are confused about the future of the 2020 season as we watch the 7th straight episode of a Netflix series, perfecting social distancing. How the 2020 season will be played has yet to be determined. I want to take a step back and attempt to look at the way the Reds can benefit from a possible shortened season and how it could hurt them.
Each day that passes without baseball is a day closer to a season without 162 games. For the sake of argument, let’s say the season is somewhere between 75-100 games. What ways can that benefit the Reds?
1. They can get healthy. Suarez, Senzel, and Galvis (amongst others) have battled some spring injuries. Extra time off only helps their recovery and could lead to a 100% healthy “Opening Day” lineup. Although Galvis is not a top ten talent at short, he is much better than the current back up options. Luckily, he should be ready to go and 100%.
2. The rotation can be a great strength. We all know how strong the current rotation is. The Reds could adjust the strategy because you won’t be worried about getting starters 32 starts and 200ish innings. With a compact season, you could let starters go deeper in games, or even go to a shorter rotation because you won’t be trying to strength out the innings over several months. Bauer and Disco are both on contract years and will be laser-focused on making the most of their fewer starts to prove their value come next offseason. If the league goes heavy on doubleheaders, Mahle and a few others could step up into the expanded rotation and stronger than many team’s depth starters.
3. How a shorten season benefits Votto? As Joey ages, he will need more days off, especially if the decline is steady. If Joey does not have to prepare himself for 162 games, it could lead to better results as he would be fresher. We all know he can get off to slow starts and avoiding that would be crucial in a shortened season.
How can the shortened season hurt the Reds?
1. David Bell is still a new manager. Fresh, unproven, inexperienced. At times in 2019, he cost the Reds some games. There is little to no margin for error in a short season. Each game means more and the lineup experimenting with playing players out of position won’t fly. Managerial experience will be extremely important in 2020 and hopefully Bell has improved after year one.
2. Lack of important experience for prospects. Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, Jonathan India, and many other prospects are missing out on developmental time. This one really stings. A couple of the Reds top prospects are projected to be on the 2021 roster but needed some time in higher levels of the minors to learn and iron out a few things. You can train and work with coaches during this time, but the actual game experience cannot be overlooked.
3. Pressure. Obviously, every game counts each season. But a shortened season stresses the importance of each game. The Reds cannot afford to go on a losing streak as they did at the beginning of 2019. The expectations for 2020 remain high, and the pressure to perform is building. The adjustment to the MLB for Shogo must happen fast. Senzel has to stay healthy. The margin of error shrinks and pressure goes up. Iglesias cannot struggle to close out games or he’ll be replaced.
The 2020 season won’t be ideal. No one wants it to be this way. Watching 162 games a year is a joy and I will miss the routine of watching the Reds every night. Let’s hope this shortened season feels and plays like a playoff series where every aspect of the game is emphasized and more important. Here’s to everyone staying safe and healthy, and the Reds winning the pennant.
Take a look at a few thoughts before we get this 2020 season underway!
What is this team’s greatest weakness and how do they go about addressing it? (@GeraldSHuber)
To me, it has to be defense. (Here’s an article I wrote about it: https://bit.ly/2wft1Bs ). Tucker and Casali are fine but not spectacular, Votto is mediocre, Moose is an unknown, and the outfield defense leaves you wanting more. Galvis is great at short, but many others could be troublesome. If defense is your greatest weakness, you probably have a pretty good team.
How many years until we see Jose Garcia? (@smoffe87)
Everyone’s new favorite prospect, and he should be. The future is bright. Garcia has yet to reach AA, where he’ll likely start this season. In high A Daytona he hit .280/.343/.436 with 8 HR and 37 (!) doubles. No need to rush the 21-year-old, but he likely is the SS in 2021 if all goes according to plan. The lack of depth at SS could rush him if injuries happen or he hits the cover off the ball.
Who will lead off? What do they do with Schebler, Reed, Mahle, and other players without options? (@StachlerJames)
Shogo Akiyama should see time as the leadoff. A career .376 OBP who has been closer to .400 in recent years (NPB league) has a chance to be a real difference maker.
Schebler, I think, will end up being traded or DFA. Reed has a tough first start, but its early and he looked great in limited time last season. Another lefty in the pen not named Peralta or Duke is welcomed. Mahle has an option and likely is headed to Louisville to get regular starts. The Reds will likely need him to start at some point during the season. Sims likely earns a pen spot, Travis Jankowski could be the final spot if injuries occur. His speed and defense are useful.
Is Senzel going to be a utility player or end up getting traded? (@GerryYnciarte65)
Being a super utility is not a bad thing. Ben Zobrist was a hell of a player in that role. However, I think Senzel will be seeing plenty of time in CF splitting with Akiyama. His bat is too good to be a true bench player. I don’t think he will be traded. It feels like he would have already been moved if that was the plan.
If Tucker or Casali get hurt do they let Farmer catch or Stephenson? (@OdeToRedsWS)
Catcher organizational depth is lacking. Stephenson could be the option if he is hitting well in AAA Louisville. I think we see him at some point this season. Only other catcher in the organization with MLB experience besides Casali and Tucker is Francisco Pena (190 AB .216/.249/.311). His stats are underwhelming at the plate but he’s a veteran and that carries value. Sadly, I doubt we see former Red great Ryan Lavarnway in 2020. Add Garcia and Stephenson to this lineup in 2021 and that team is very strong.
Over/Under….When do the Reds give up on the mix-n-match platoon ideas and have a regular lineup? Line is May 31st. (MTGPackFoils)
The days of the “same lineup everyday” are gone. And they should be. Putting out the same lineup doesn’t always mean the results will follow. Some players hit lefties but not righties and some hit righties and not lefties. Play the best players for each situation. Platooning can lead to the best results at times. So OVER. (More on that here: https://bit.ly/38cbCXD)
What are your thoughts on Shogo playing mostly center or left, if Senzel is healthy? (@Win1SuperBowl)
As it stands today, the outfield is crowded. It will play itself out. Akiyama can play all three OF positions and I could see him getting at-bats in the corner OF when Senzel is in CF. There’s true competition for at-bats this season and that’s absolutely a good thing. Players will have to earn their playing time.
Who is the backup SS? (@GebzillaG)
Kyle Famer. He ‘s such a unique player who can play all over the field. He was a college SS and has worked their early this spring. Across all levels he’s seen 76 innings at SS and hasn’t recorded and error. Blandino could also be the back up SS. Blandino has 60.2 innings at short in the MLB and is a .941 fielder there. 1692 innings at short in the minors with a .951 fielding %.