Who are these Reds?
They are surely not the 3-18 Reds of April 22 or the 19-37 Reds of May 29 or the 22-43 Reds of June 9.
By June 9 and 21 games under .500 we were seeing more things we liked out of this team than we saw in April. But we didn’t see a 19-8 stretch coming. That was as unlikely as Tuesday night’s seven-run, two-out, ninth-inning rally to beat the Cleveland Indians 7-4.
Today the Reds are 41-51, 14 games out of first place in the NL Central, still in last place by 1.5 games and 10 games out of the second wild-card spot occupied by the 50-40 Atlanta Braves. Yes, even getting into real contention at this point is a long shot, but at least this stretch has made us curious enough to check the standings.
For almost a month, the Reds are playing like a 90-plus win team. They now have a 1 percent chance to make the postseason according to the projections on fivethirtyeight.com. Who thought that could happen.
The past four weeks — and the four previous to that to a lesser extent — have confirmed what I thought at the beginning of the season. This teams is not half of a rebuild away from contending. This team is only a couple key pieces and more experience away from playing meaningful games in September of 2019. In April, we wondered if a rebuild reboot was needed. It is not. Add a starter or two — not three or four — and tweak the lineup.
The Reds are second in the league in on-base percentage. You can live with two or three players being below average in OBP in a lineup like that. Losing magnifies the weaker links in the lineup, and no lineup is ideal. This team can win with Peraza’s bat and Barnhart’s bat.
A better hitting center fielder would be nice. And I’m all for a move that would be a hitting upgrade that doesn’t sacrifice defense. Billy Hamilton has been a big part of this 19-8 stretch. He scores at a higher rate when he gets on base and right now he’s getting on base.
I don’t expect the Reds to move on from Hamilton yet. They are going to see how the rest of this month goes at the least. If he becomes old Billy again this month, they will trade him if anybody wants him. If not, don’t be surprised if he is the starting center fielder next year. Not saying that’s the best move, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Last week I wrote about lineups I like based on the current roster and a future one based on the assumption that Scooter Gennett and Adam Duvall will be traded to put Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel in the lineup every day.
This team can win with Hamilton being average or close to it at getting on base. Imagine a postseason series with Billy getting on base a lot.
Dick Williams is on record that the payroll will increase next year. He wasn’t specific, but if his words didn’t mean that he will go find one or two good starting pitchers then trust will be lost.
The youngsters are growing, and Anthony DeSclafani’s comeback is encouraging. But a No. 1 starter is a must. Williams should not wait to see if DeSclafani, Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle is going to become a shutdown ace. Go get one and maybe you end up with three or four above-average starters and one or two average starters.
The potential for a rotation that reminds us of Cueto, Bailey, Latos, Leake and Arroyo is possible. But to be there next year requires a big addition like the Latos move accomplished.
To get the great No. 1 requires a trade. There are too many factors in trades to speculate with any reasonable certainty. The free agent market is different. Most of the available starters are getting too old for for more than a one- or two-year contract.
But there are three pitchers who will be available at a favorable age:
Patrick Corbin: He’s making $7.5 million for Arizona this season. He was a second-round pick in 2009, is a second-time all-star and turns 29 on July 19. He has a career-low 3.09 ERA this year and is hitting the peak age range for a pitcher. Corbin could be affordable with a good upside as his 2.70 xFIP suggests.
Dallas Keuchel: He will be 31 and pushing the age level I am comfortable with for more than a two-year contract. He’s making $13.2 million with the Astros and unlikely to command much more than that unless he is World Series MVP. His only rough year since he became a full-time starter in 2012 was 2016. He’s been average this season with a 3.95 ERA and a 3.66 xFIP. He’s also been to the top personally (2015 Cy Young winner) and with his team. He would be a good mentor to younger pitchers.
Matt Harvey: Trade him and then try to sign him if he finishes the season well could be a good strategy. Harvey will be 30 at the start of next season and is making $5.6 million this year. He should be affordable. His 3.79 ERA and 4.09 FIP in 11 starts with the Reds and the way he is trending make it tempting for the Reds to keep him and sign him. That decision would be difficult to disagree with, but the trade-then-sign strategy is sound.
The 2018 roster is doing all it can to win. Now it’s up to Dick Williams, Nick Krall and the check writers to give the 2019 roster a chance to be even better.
Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates set to Play Three
Break’s over. That’s right, you heard me, back to work. Well, for the Reds, that is. There’s been four whole days since the last baseball game for Cincinnati, and now they’re back, starting Friday, at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Reds and Pirates are separated by four-and-a-half games in the NL Central. If Cincinnati is to stop the wire-to-wire last place finish they currently have going, this series will go a long way to solving that. The Pirates hold the edge in the season series, having won four of the 10 games, so far.
Th Reds will need to improve their pitching against the Pirates if they hope to make up ground. In the 10 games they’ve played against one another, Pittsburgh is getting on base at a slightly better rate than one per every three batters (.346). Chief among Cincinnati pitchers who need to improve against Pittsburgh is Tyler Mahle, Friday night’s starter.
Mahle’s first start against e Buccos didn’t go so well. In 4.2 innings pitched he was tagged for all five of Pittsburgh’s runs, allowed 10 baserunners (nine hits, one walk), and allowed a pair of home runs. In fact, his counterpart on Friday, Jameson Taillon, was his counterpart on that day. He pitched a complete game shutout against the Redlegs.
Saturday is a big day as it is the 2018 Reds Hall of Fame Induction game. Adam Dunn, Fred Norman, and Dave Bristol will all be enshrined in the best Hall of Fame outside of Cooperstown. Pitching that day is Anthony DeSclafani. His last start against the Pirates just missed being a quality one. He tossed 5.2 innings of two-run baseball and got the win. Both runs were scored on solo homers by Colin Moran and Gregory Polanco.
Pittsburgh’s scheduled starter, Nick Kingham, has never faced Cincinnati.
Sunday’s series finale will feature the Dark Knight making his first trip to the bump on the back side of the break. He’s pitched twice against Pittsburgh this year with varying success. Hist first outing he earned a win, pitching six innings of one-run baseball. His second time out turned into a Pirates win despite five solid innings of three runs allowed. Harvey has struck out seven Buccos in his eleven innings while allowing 11 baserunners.
The Pirates actually have Nick Kingham listed as their Sunday starter, too…so I’m guessing it’s actually TBD. But lets take a quick look at the Pirates young hurler.
Kingham has been around the Pirates minor leagues since 2010 and didn’t make his Major League debut until April 29th. On that day, he pitched seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit and striking out nine. Since then he has not pitched that deep into a game, though he’s grazed it. July hasn’t been as kind to him as he sports a 5.28 ERA for the month and has allowed six homers in three starts.
Fun fact, the Reds are 5-5 in the last 10 years in the first game back from the All Star Break. So yeah, that’s a completely pointless stat, but now you have something to regale your friends with as you watch the game, Friday night.
Both Friday and Saturday games begin at 7:10 pm while Sunday’s game is scheduled for 1:10 pm.
WATCH: Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto homer in the All-Star game
The National League trailed the American League 5-3 on Tuesday night, partially because a Joey Votto error led to three runs for the American League in the eighth inning. Scooter Gennett bailed out his teammate with a pinch hit two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth that forced extra innings. Gennett was the first Reds player to hit a home run in an All-Star game since Davey Concepcion in 1982. Watch the home run below:
SCOOTER GENNETT TIE GAME!
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 18, 2018
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 18, 2018
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 18, 2018
The American League hit two home runs in extra innings and ultimately won the game 8-6. Votto hit a home run in the bottom of the 10th inning. It was Votto’s first hit in an All-Star game (Votto was 1-3 on the night and is now 1-13 in All-Star games). Watch it below:
— Todd (@bitterRedsfan) July 18, 2018
JOEY HAS THE MOST BEAUTIFUL SWING ON THE PLANET pic.twitter.com/U5RFd8L8MH
— paco 🇺🇸 (@AllaireMatt) July 18, 2018
For more on the Reds, go here.
From the Beginning to the Break
We’ve laughed, we’ve cried, and there are still 66 more games to go for the Cincinnati Reds. Buckle up, though, this ride still has a few ups, downs, loops, and corkscrews.
Although, this ride isn’t as bumpy as, say, the Vortex over at Kings Island. This year feels more like the Diamondback. It took awhile to get up that first chain hill (April through the first week of May) but that’s only because it’s a really big hill. The ride has been quite entertaining since that first month.
Sure, the state of things aren’t great. Cincinnati is last in the Central at 43-53 – 13.5 games behind Chicago. They’re 10 games out of the second National League Wildcard spot. The question is, though, were playoffs the goal of 2018? If you’ve paid attention to Locked on Reds, the answer is no.
This was supposed to be a year that the Reds set the table for a contending team at Great American Ballpark, and there is some semblance of success in this arena.
The current team MVP is Joe…nope…Eugenio Suarez. That’s right boys and girls. You remember that contract extension that the front office handed out to a talented, young Venezuelan this past offseason? Yeah, looking like a great idea. According to baseball-reference.com, Suarez has compiled a 3.6 WAR up to this point.
Of course, if WAR is your thing, Fangraphs has both Suarez and Scooter Gennett at 3.3 WAR. The Reds have found their nucleus. In fact, Jose Peraza is currently sitting at a 1.8 WAR, making the entire Reds infield (Votto with a 2.8 WAR) the most valuable part of the team.
Much has been said about Suarez and Scooter, so let’s take a look at an under-appreciated part of this team: Peraza.
For starters, he’s been a revelation from the leadoff spot. Peraza is hitting .333 as the leadoff hitter and has a .389 on-base percentage. Right, blink, rub your eyes, and look again at that .389 OBP. He’s scored 22 of his 53 runs from the leadoff spot, scoring just under 50% of the time he’s reached base.
Part of the explanation for his success can be explained by Peraza having a 30 point-better batting average on balls in play than last year (.293 compared to .259). Another part of the explanation comes from Peraza’s improved plate disciple. His walk percentage is up for the third-straight year to 5.5% and his strikeout rate is down to 10.9%. Diving slightly deeper, he has decreased his swing % by three points on pitches outside the zone and has a 95% contact rate on pitches in the zone. He’s made leaps and bounds in the improvement area this season.
The hitting has been what’s pushed this team through the first 96 games. The Reds have scored the third most runs in the NL, at 461. Their team on-base percentage trails the Cubs by 4 points (.341) for best in the Majors. Much has been written, of late, regarding Cincinnati’s plate discipline and their willingness to take more walks translating into success at the plate, and who could argue? It has been a huge factor in their turnaround.
While not egregiously worse, Cincinnati’s OBP was 15 points lower for the month of April. Combine that with the second worst slugging percentage in all of major league baseball, for that month (.357), and you get an offense that was unable to bail out horrific pitching.
The pitching has come a long way, since that harrowing month, in which the Reds compiled the worst ERA in the NL (5.15) and beat everyone to 20 losses. They’ve shaved over a run off that number, since April, as their team ERA in months not named April is 4.06. The bullpen has gotten a lot of work, as Reds starters average just over five innings a game, but they’ve been up to the task, thus far.
As a unit, considering some individuals that are no longer with the major league team, they re statistically at the middle of the pack in the National League. Individually, there are some pitchers that no opposing lineup looks forward to facing, late in-game. Foremost is Jared Hughes.
Hughes has a 2.3 WAR, per Baseball Reference, good for 4th best on the team. His 1.44 ERA is third best among NL relievers with at least 40 IP. When you are the key guy out of the bullpen, you’ve got to be tough when you get a bad hand dealt to you, and Hughes stands tall in those situations. He’s inherited 23 runners and stranded 15 of them. Despite tossing right handed, Hughes is toughest on lefties, allowing 16 hits in 81 lefties faced. He’s also kept the ball in the park, allowing just two round-trippers.
Amir Garrett stands tall next to Hughes. The starter turned reliever has one-upped Jared Hughes in the inherited run department. Just six of the 32 runners Garrett has inherited have crossed home plate. He is tied for eighth in the Majors with 18 holds, but his ERA has climbed each month (it currently sits at 10.13 for the month of July). Safe to say, he’s relishing this All Star break.
The winning of late has distracted us Reds fans from the big picture of this season. It isn’t necessarily the goal to make the playoffs this year, but to get the team situated for multiple years of playoff contention, beginning next year. The biggest storylines coming out of the All Star Break will not be a pursuit of a playoff appearance, but a couple of other things:
What will they do at the trade deadline?
– Will they sell off? (I hope not)
– Will they go after a staff ace? (I hope so)
– Who will be a Red after the dust settles?
Will they succumb to peer pressure and remove the interim tag from Jim Riggleman?
– Don’t get me wrong, Riggsy has done a fantastic job, but that’s just premature and needless in so many ways. They haven’t conducted an actual managerial search since they hired Bob Boone. It needs to happen at the end of this season. If Riggsy is determined to be the guy after it’s all said and done, cool, but do a search.
Will they stop bunting?
– Okay, admittedly this isn’t really a storyline, per say, but it’s worth noting. The team that has scored the most runs in the Majors, the Boston Red Sox, have compiled a grand total of three sacrifices. Three. That’s it. That’s 30 less than the Reds, who lead all of Major League Baseball in sacrifices. Their seventh in runs scored, but think of where they could be if they stop giving up outs. You know what…I’m feeling a more detailed blog about this subject, so let’s wrap this up.
The Reds need to win 38 games in their final 66 to finish the year at .500. I predicted they would, before the season, on another website. I still think they complete the 81-81 season. This is a decent team, an entertaining team, and they can play with anyone. Add in a couple of trades that are, hopefully, coming in the next few weeks, and you got yourself a contender for the next few years.
Like I said in the opening graph, buckle up, Reds fans, there’s plenty of baseball left!
(Also, shout out Locked on Reds, this is post 100!)
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WATCH: Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto homer in the All-Star game