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Cincinnati Reds

Reds Storylines that Need to Disappear

There are two narratives that need squashing, immediately.

Jeff

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© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

There are two narratives that need squashing, immediately. Fans (and sometimes broadcasters) use them to talk about the Reds and they are just garbage that proves nothing.

Narrative No. 1 – The Reds need to win more one-run games. I’ve heard this one quite bit. Whether it be national media-types talking about their failings in 2019, or fans talking about the team, they all bring up this point. Here’s the thing, winning more one-run games is a good thing. Having an improved lineup to increase the day-to-day scoring margin, and decreasing the amount of overall one-run games is better.

The best way to improve a team’s one-run record is to play less one-run games. The Reds were in the most one-run games in Major League Baseball, last season. We all have heard the record, too many times, but just once more, Cincinnati posted a 24-33 record in one-run games. The next closest in one-run losses was Miami at 28. Bet you don’t know who won the most one-run games? Well, you might have peaked, but it was the Giants with 38. Anyone know how well San Fransisco did in 2019? They won 77 games, or two more than the Reds.

The 10 playoffs teams averaged just a smidge over 42 one-run decisions, last year. The World Series champion Washington Nationals only played in 38 one-run ballgames and even had a losing record in them (17-21). Just as in life, the best course of action is to minimize stress. Time to stop talking about winning more one-run games and, instead, talk about playing in less of them, overall.

Narrative No. 2 – Bunting is a good strategy. I’ll admit, I am hearing this less from Reds Twitter and more from callers at the radio station, but it’s still worth noting. Bunting sucks. Giving up one of only three available outs to move a runner from first to second, or even second to third, is not a good strategy. The strategy should be to save as many outs as possible while scoring all the runs. Let’s look at the chart.

The values in each column are the number of possible runs you can expect based on the base running situation and the number of outs. This is math, not an opinion. I didn’t sit here and write arbitrary numbers on a table. This is created by people much smarter than me with formulas and stuff. So, the values state you can expect to score more with a runner on first and no outs, as opposed to a runner on second and one out. Likewise, you can expect more runs with a runner on second and no outs, as opposed to a runner on third with one out.

Here’s the other part of this, I am talking about position players bunting. I am fine with pitchers bunting, they can have at it. It’s the spots in the lineup, 1-8, that need to forget bunting. The playoff teams I referenced in the one-run game section all averaged 7.4 sacrifice bunts, for the season, by position players. In 162 games, the Nationals’ position players put down 19 sacrifice bunts. That was the most by any playoff team. The Dodgers had two, that’s right TWO, position players lay down sacrifice bunts for the entire 2019 season. Pitchers bunt, the rest of the lineup should stop.

For more Reds talk, make sure to check out the latest episode of Locked On Reds!

Jeff has spent his entire life around sports. From playing baseball and golf in high school to traveling with college softball, volleyball, and men’s basketball teams as their media relations guy, sports have always been his focal point. He’s pumped to be bringing Reds content to the Locked on Sports Podcast Network!

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Martino

    February 11, 2020 at 12:01 am

    I’m not at all opposed to bunting if the player in question is really good at it and can really fly. There was a reason you seldom saw Johnny Bench bunt.. He was really slow and he could hit homeruns when called to do so. Too bad Billy couldn’t bunt for squat. I do have to admit I’m having a tough time harkening back to great Reds bunters though. I’m going to chalk that up to being not quite as young as I used to be which could theoretically be the same as saying I’m old.

  2. Avatar

    Amello

    February 11, 2020 at 12:04 am

    I always liked the name of the suicide squeeze play. It does sound a bit depressing, but heck…nobody lives forever anyway.

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Cincinnati Reds

Reds vs Brewers Series Preview

The Reds begin a pivotal series with the Brewers on Friday night. Let’s break it down.

Clay Snowden

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© David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The Reds just lost 13-0 to the Indians making their record 5-8 and 5.5 game back. The same team many of us thought would contend for the division has struggled early in this shortened season. The starting pitching has been incredible. Without them, this team would be in the basement. The offense has had spurts, but some of the big names have struggled. Suarez is hitting .091 while starters like Galvis, Winker, and Barnhart are at or below .200. Luckily, 34 of the next 38 games are against the NL Central and the Reds will have a better chance to climb the standings and see how they match up against divisional foes.

Brewers Series:
August 7th 8:10 Bauer vs. Lauer

BAUER LAUER matchup! The announcers will love that I’m sure. Bauer has been stellar. .68 ERA 20 K’s in 13.1 innings. He is looking like the pitcher the Reds thought he would be when they brought him over last year. Lauer is a good young pitcher who has only pitched 2.2 innings but struck out 6.
It will be interesting to see how Bell plays the lineup. In need of a spark, does he change the order? Lauer is a lefty so will Ervin play? He’s only hitting .067 (1-10 vs. LHP) but his track record versus LHP is great.

August 8th 7:10 DeSclanfani vs Anderson

Disco looked fantastic in his first and only start. 5 innings giving up 3 hits and striking out two. He was picked up where he left off at the end of last season. Anderson, another LHP, had his start ended early due to a ball off his foot. The veteran has always been a solid starter and facing a LHP two days in a row will likely be a similar lineup as the (vs) Lauer lineup. Feels like a series that Senzel can get going against LHP. He’s 1-8 against south paws this season and here’s an opportunity to get going against them.

August 9th 2:10 Gray vs Woodruff

Sonny Gray has been lights out. Cy Young level. 3-0 .96 ERA 28 K’s 8 hits in 18.2 innings holding batters to a .129 avg. We all know he’s going to bring it. Woodruff has been great in his 3 starts posting 21 K’s in 17.1 innings and carrying a 2.08 ERA. The first RHP the Brewers will start the lineup will have extra lefties in there. Although a small sample size, here’s how the Reds left handed bats have fared vs RHP:

Galvis (Switch) .259
Akiyama .242
Barnhart .235
Votto .233
Winker .214
Moose .188
Jankowski .000

So far this season has been frustrating. That start we imagined did not look like this. The offense has been struggling at times and the bullpen has been a mess. Facing NL Central teams will help us get a better idea of how the Reds matchup with the division. Hopefully facing pitchers the Reds have seen more often can help as well.

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Cincinnati Reds

Tigers Reviews & Cubs Preview

Let’s put a bow on the weekend and look forward to the series with the Cubbies.

Clay Snowden

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Friday night was incredible. After months of doom and gloom, we finally were able to sit back and watch the team that we all have been talking about for months. And they delivered. However, the following two games felt worse than your ex dating your best friend. Here is the recap and preview of the next series.

Friday: W 7-1 Vs. DET Saturday: L 4-6 Sunday: L 2-3

Friday was such a tease. The team looked determined, focused, and sharp. The bullpen went 3 hitless innings. The offense flexed its muscles for 7 runs. However, the rest of the series was painful. Disappointing. A reminder of the years Reds fans struggled to get through.

The starting pitching was second to none. Gray went 6 and had 9 K’s. Castillo went 6 with 11 K’s and Bauer went 6.1 with 13 K’s and only gave up 2 hits. Most teams that get starting pitching like that are looking at 3-0, not 1-2.

Let’s start with the bullpen. Brooks Raley, Nate Jones, and Lucas Simms did their job on Friday. Garrett and Strop came in and were effective. However, Lorenzen, Stephenson, and Iglesias all struggled, and it ultimately cost the Reds the game and series. These are the three guys you lean on to hold leads and close out games. Iglesias has not shown he can be trusted, and he should be on a short leash. Lorenzen did pick up some MPH on that fastball, but his pitches were simply too hittable.

What David Bell did was “play the numbers”. Subbing players in and out depending on match up. When it works, he looks like a genius. But often it does not, and it leads to criticism and upset players. In my opinion, players need to get in a rhythm and gets reps as quickly as possible. Taking them out after 2 AB won’t do that. What if this leads to players always worrying about getting replaced, and they struggle because of it. Bell is far from a proven manager, and the only thing shorter than this season is the patience fans have with him.

Trending Up: Casali and Galvis. Both showed patience at the plate, took walks, made solid contact. Getting plus seasons from them could go a long way.

Trending Down: Suarez/Bullpen/Injury. Suarez is sitting at 0-11. Yikes. But he could go off at any moment. Concerned, but not scared. I touched on the bullpen. Moose, Senzel, and Davidson have all missed time. Injuries could derail this season quickly. Watch out for them.






Preview: Chicago Cubs (2-1)

7/27 Lester vs Miley 7/28 Mills vs Mahle 7/29 Hendricks vs Gray 7/30 Darvish vs Castillo

Enough of that American League BS, bring on the hated Cubs. The Cubs won their series versus the Brew crew (W 3-0 / L 3-8 / W 9-1). This four game series against a divisional rival could set the tone for the rest of the season. 36-year-old Jon Lester isn’t the same threat he was a few years back, but a solid #4. Miley will have a chance to show what him and DJ have been working on. Mills posted solid numbers last September in 9 games, but Mahle is out to prove that he belongs and is more than a depth option.

Wednesday is the day you circle on the calendar. Hendricks vs Gray. Hendricks is one of my favorite pitches to watch. He also had 9 K’s on Opening Day and gave up only 3 hits. That could be a HUGE game. Darvish Struggled in his first start allowing 3 runs and 6 hits. Castillo should be able to lead this team against the aging Darvish.

What to watch for:
1) Bullpen Bounce Back
2) Suarez getting on track
3) Bell’s managerial adjustments
4) Reds injuries/ Tucker’s return(?)

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Cincinnati Reds

Reds Mailbag: 7/08/2020

Let’s brush up on a few burning questions before the season gets going

Clay Snowden

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BASEBALL IS BACK. The 2020 Reds will finally get to see the field. Sure, it will be totally different than we expected, but I’ll take it. Let’s jump into some mailbag questions.

Who will end up being the Reds MVP?

I think you have to go pitcher here. Pitching will be crucial in a shortened season, so let’s go with Luis Castillo. We all know he has the stuff of a true ACE. However, someone like Bauer/another starter playing at an MVP level would be a bigger impact to add to Gray and Castillo. Offensive MVP = Castellanos.

Will the Reds make the NLCS?

Yes. I think the Reds are set up well for a 60 game season. As many have said, the team that remains the heathiest has a huge leg up. The Reds have the starting pitching to have a chance to win each day. The offense should be there as well. Staying healthy is the most important thing to success this season.

Who will the 4 extra players be on the 30 man?

Injuries and illness could cause roster changes, but as of today: Nate Jones, Mark Payton, Tejay Antone, Alex Blandino.

I could be seeing some as locks or part of the “26” that others might see as bubble. Payton must be kept on because of the rule 5 pick or sent back to Oakland, and he shows enough talent. Blandino is the best option as a back up short (defensively) that’s had MLB experience. Jones is great when healthy, and you can’t have too many good arms in the pen. Antone is a guy I have been high on, and his increased velo stands out. He’s a back of the end rotation/Long relief guy.

Will Castellanos play for the Reds past this season?

Yes. Owners are likely to be cheap this offseason. Going into the free agent market hoping to make more than the Reds are set to pay him could be tough. I think Castellanos will love playing in GABP. This ballpark gives him an opportunity to put up big offensive numbers. I expect him to have a huge season.

Any chance Jose Garcia is on the Opening Day roster?

It would take a major injury to Galvis. Even then, I am not sure he would. He is the best pure SS of the back up options, but he hasn’t played above AA. I think if Galvis went down, the Reds might do it. But if Galvis just needs a couple of days off, Blandino/Farmer/”other” could step in.
Don’t get me wrong, I cannot wait to see Garcia take over the everyday SS at bats, but only once they feel he is ready. Who knows, a trade could still happen.

If the Reds win the WS do you think everyone will give it the same respect as a normal season?

Why not? It might even be more difficult to win this year than any other. Strategy will play a larger roll this year than any other. Managers will have to show what they are worth. Someone has to win the World Series this year, might as well be the Reds.

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