Ahhhhhhhh finally Thanksgiving. Turkey, football, awkward distant family conversations, and naps. A top 3 holiday behind Christmas and Opening Day. I wanted to take a moment and say what Reds fans should be thankful for from 2019 (in no particular order).
Amir Garrett- What’s not to like? 78 strikeouts in 56 innings holding a 3.21 ERA and a 1.2 WAR. But numbers aside……HIS SWAG CANNOT BE TOUCHED. I love watching Amir pitch. The confidence coming out of the bullpen is much needed in the “baseball is boring” years. Fighting a bunch of punk Pirates? Check. Striking out Ohio native Kyle Schwarber and showing up the fake tough guy? Check.
The Punishers August- Name a more entertaining story to follow in the past few seasons? Aquino came on the scene and hit the cover off the ball. .320 avg. with *squints* 14 BOMBS and 33 RBI. Setting MLB records and giving fans a show. August was special because (slight) playoff hopes were alive, something we have not been able to say in recent years.
The Dodgers Trade- WE GOT MATT KEMP!!! Ok Ok sorry… BUT we did get Puig, Wood, and Farmer while getting rid of Christian Bale Homer Bailey. Man did Puig make Cincinnati buzz. His stint wasn’t long, but he provided the Reds with walk off hits, walk off runs, and taking on the entire punk Pirates team. Wood and Kemp didn’t provide much, however, Farmer did. Playing all over the field, and playing well, while also having several key pinch hits. Mostly thankful for Homer getting shipped out.
Starting pitching- Gray, Castillo, DeSclafani, Bauer. Castillo and Gray pitched at an all-star level and at times a Cy Young level. It was fun as hell to watch the movement on their pitches fool hitters all season. Disco had some great moments and I think we are excited for another offseason with the Reds pitching coaches. Bauer has tons of talent, let’s hope he can improve from last season and return to all-star form.
Suarez- What an easy player to love. One of the most underrated players in all of baseball provided some big pop in the Reds lineup. 49 dingers set a record for most of any Venezuelan player while coming up just short of the Reds season record. Signed through 2024 Suarez will be having fans smiling for years to come.
Those we might never see again- We all know that players change teams often. A look at previous year’s rosters always brings a smile to some names and PTSD to others. Two names that left an impression on the fanbase: Derek Dietrich and Jose Iglesias. Dietrich brought us early season memories delivering on Opening Day then pimping home runs and hitting 12 May home runs. Iglesias flashed silky smooth leather all season and hit well with 2 strikes. His career high 11 Homers wasn’t too shabby either. The last is @ObscureFormerRed Ryan Lavarnway! 18 at-bats with 5 hits and a 2 home run game. Brought on out of nowhere he came, he hit, he moved to another organization. But it was fun while it lasted.
Lastly- I want to thank you all. I want to thank Locked on Reds and Jeff. I have loved interacting on twitter and bouncing ideas off you all. Here’s to many more!
Thanksgiving Food Power Rankings:
Green Bean Casserole
Mac n cheese
Yuck: Pumpkin pie, stuffing, cranberry anything
What’s Wrong With the Reds Trading Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo trade rumors got you worried? Here’s the fatal flaw in the reports that will ease your mind.
Rumors have flared up, from some varying sources all stemming back to Jim Bowden spitballing on a radio show, that the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds are seriously discussing a swap that would send Luis Castillo to the Bronx. Before we get to the “What the…?” part, check out friend of the podcast Doug Gray’s thoughts as to why we shouldn’t worry about the Reds doing this, too much.
Now then…what in the world? Why would the Reds be considering the trade of an ace-caliber pitcher who makes less than half of their other ace-caliber pitcher who will make less than half of what Trevor Bauer is likely to sign a free agent contract for? Yeah, that’s a long question, but the fact that reports surged out of a passing comment by Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio leads me to agree with Doug that there isn’t much to worry about here.
The weirdest part has been the reported return that the Reds require:
Or maybe this is more extrapolating by Yankees-focused sources that are looking at something small. Both of those players make little sense for the Reds. Andujar is woeful in the field. If he were to put on a glove, it would be in the outfield. Frazier is also an outfielder. The Reds have Shogo Akiyama, Nicholas Castellanos, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, and even Aristides Aquino already on the roster. Why on earth would key return pieces be outfielders? That helps the Reds very little, if at all.
To expound on the inequity of these trade rumors, we have this beautiful website Baseball Trade Values (shout out to Obscure Former Reds for introducing me to this site). I find that I am extremely biased in matters of evaluating Reds players’ trade values, so a site that does math and applies objectivity to such an endeavor is very intriguing. Let’s take a look at how this website values Castillo and then how it values the rumored return.
I get how reported returns work. When a report says “key pieces” that means there are more pieces. But if you look at that value discrepancy, there is going to need to be lots more value in the remaining pieces, which means the reported “key pieces” don’t objectively move the needle.
Per Baseball Trade Values, Luis Castillo is the ninth-most valuable player in all of baseball. Yup, you read that right, Castillo is top-10 in all of Major League Baseball in trade value. They figure that out by taking what they call “adjusted field value,” which takes several performance factors into account, and subtracts the salary from that to come up with the trade value. They explain it more, here.
The most valuable player on the Yankees, per Baseball Trade Values, is Gleybar Torres at 69.2. In other words, the most valuable Yankee is still little more than half as valuable as Castillo. Now, it’s not as if these numbers drive every trade discussion. In fact, the folks at Baseball Trade Values admit this is just them creating formulas and basing values on their formulas…but it’s better than a Reds fan and a Yankees fan screaming at each other.
Overall, this website shows the herculean task that Nick Krall would have of getting back even comparable value for Luis Castillo, if he even thought of actually trading the talented La Piedra. It’s not being overly biased to say the Yankees can’t put together a trade that keeps them contending and meets the Reds demands, at the same time. So why is it even being talked about? For that, I invite you to take a look at the rabid Yankee fan base on Twitter that is beside themselves that the Bombers have only resigned Dj Lemahieu and added Corey Kluber. They’re pining for more and they’re stretching to find any rumor that brings more to New York, no matter how farfetched.
Cincinnati Reds Bounce Back & Break Out: Infield
Who will bounce back in the Cincinnati Reds infield, and who will break out?
As it stands today, 1/11/2021, the Reds infield situation looks very similar to their 2020 situation. Galvis and Casali are gone, but most everyone else is back. Votto is a year older while Stephenson and Garcia headline the youth movement. Veterans Eugenio Suarez and Mike Moustakas look to rebound after average seasons. Although I think another MLB caliber middle infielder will be added, we will work with what is currently on the roster.
Bounce Back: Eugenio Suarez (.202/.312/.470 15 HR 102 OPS+)
The Alfredo Simon trade (lol), the HR record, the team friendly deal, the huge smile and big bubble gum bubbles are a few of the many reasons we all love Suarez. With HR numbers increasing year after year big things were in store for Geno in 2020. Sadly, I think the offseason shoulder injury played into his slow 2020.
The batting average and on base % took a dive. Around .270 avg and .360 OBP was the standard in previous years but an absolutely terrible start to the season really set things back. However, he improved his average and OBP and Slugging every month of the season.
An entire offseason to get healthy and get right should lead to more of what we expect from the star third baseman. Getting his shoulder back to where it needs to be is crucial. He’s still only 29 years old and is in his prime. Strikeout numbers are something we’ll probably just have to live with (the case for many HR hitters). A bounce back year would help this Reds team add to what was a lackluster offense at times.
Honorable Mention: Every other starter
Just look at the stats
Breakout: Tyler Stephenson (.294/.400/.647 2 HR 17 AB 170 OPS+)
We all know the Tyler Stephenson story. His big homerun on his debut was a moment we will not forget. A 2015 first round selection, the fans have been waiting patiently for Stephenson to contribute. It always takes catchers longer and his injuries did not help. The glimpse that we saw in 2020 has us excited for what the future holds.
The Reds moving on from Curt Casali leaves the door open for Stephenson to be on the roster. Tucker is back after adding his second gold glove to the collection, but I don’t think that holds Stephenson to a reserve role. Tyler will get plenty of chances to start. His bat is something that Tucker simply cannot match and this Reds team needs more offense from the catching position. Prepare yourself for some growing pains. Not necessarily like what we saw from Jose Garcia, but Stephenson has very little experience and will take some time to adjust. We haven’t seen enough of his defense to make too strong of judgement but working with Tucker daily should help immensely.
Honorable Mention: Jose Garcia
The talent is there, but his youth and lack of experience showed. Hopefully, another offseason under his belt will help. The Reds likely will add a veteran to help ease him along.
Several Reds infielders had a down 2020. Hell, most of us had a down 2020. This team is better than what they showed in the shortened season. If a few of them can get back to the numbers on the back of their baseball cards, I think the Reds will be fine.
Cincinnati Reds Bounce Back and Break Out: Starters
Who will impress us on the mound this year for the Reds that we don’t necessarily expect?
I started this series, “A Bounce Back and a Breakout”, last season. It will be a four part series including outfielders, infielders (with catchers), starters, and bullpen. It is pretty much exactly what it sounds like. I will pick a player to break out and a player who had a down year to bounce back.
Let’s get things started with, well, the starters.
Bounce Back: Wade Miley ( 0-3 5.65 EERA 14.1 innings 86 ERA+ )
For most of his career, Miley was a *fine* pitcher. About league average. Then in 2018, at 31, he had a breakout year with Milwaukee and pitching coach Derek Johnson. This caught the eyes of many and landed him a deal with Houston in 2019 where he pitched pretty well, but nowhere near is 2018 form. Last season (his first with the Reds) was injury plagued but even when he did pitch it wasn’t very pretty. A veteran lefty could really help the rotation. His fastball velocity in 2020 was atrocious, while his fastball spin and curve spin where around average.
The hope is being reunited with Derek Johnson could help him get back to his 2018 numbers. While that didn’t happen in 2020, a healthy 2021 still leaves a glimmer of hope. At 34 years old and more mediocre baseball than good baseball shown in his career, I am not expecting Miley to fill a hole Bauer left or anything close to it. I expect him to battle for the fifth starter spot, or even a bullpen spot. Regardless of his role, he is a better pitcher than 2020 showed.
Honorable Mention: Jose De Leon (0-0 18.00 ERA 6 innings)
Once a top prospect, De Leon has struggled with injuries and consistency leading to a lackluster career so far. He wasn’t given much of an opportunity last season, but his winter ball performances this year are showing promise. 3.18 ERA in 17 innings 31 K’s and 10 BB. Walk numbers are still high, but De Leon is a long shot but someone who qualifies as a bounce back due to his poor numbers in the past.
Break Out: Tyler Mahle (2-2 3.59 ERA 47.2 innings 60 K’s 133 ERA+)
I know Mahle might not be thought of as a candidate for a breakout considering his success. However, I think there is an even higher level for Tyler to reach. Bauer most likely being gone hurts. Anytime you have a Cy Young walk out the door there will be big shoes to fill. Mahle has all of the talent and finally will have a chance to be a top 3 guy.
Some good numbers, and some elite numbers. I think so many people, myself included, wrote Mahle off at times. He was still so young when he was brought up and then his usage was kind of funky. He is 26 now and ready to take over a bigger role and I cannot wait to see what 2021 has in store for him.
Honorable Mention: Tejay Antone
To be honest, I would have had Antone has the breakout player for 2021, but I am not 100% sure what his role would be. I want him to be in the rotion, but we will wait and see. Either way, what we all saw in 2020 left our jaws on the floor. Antone’s spin rates are off the charts. The former 5th round pick from 2014 will have a big role with the Reds team, but what exactly that role will be is unknown.
In conclusion, the Reds are still looking like they will have a good rotation even without Bauer. If they keep Gray and Castillo that leaves Mahle, Miley, Antone, De Leon, Hoffman, Greene, Lodolo, Lorenzen (?) and others to fill out the 5 spots. These things always work their way out, but I like the options this team has.