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The Bad News: Why the Reds Are Doomed for Failure Yet Again

At least we still have Derek Dietrich

Taj Simmons

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(This article is a two-parter in which we examine the reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic on the Reds so far. A “Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” take if you will)

This gif feels like it needs to be here, so I’ve added it. Yay.

The Cincinnati Reds are now fifty-plus games through the 2019 season, which is insane to think about. I can still remember what I was doing, thinking, and feeling both in and out in terms of baseball when opening day arrived. Maybe you do too, in which case I applaud you for such a vivid memory. If you’re one of those people, do you think you’ve made major life changes within that short time period? If you were to put present-day you right next to fifty-plus days in the past you, do you think you could tell any noticeable differences between the two? Perhaps you’ve set out a goal for yourself, and maybe you haven’t exactly achieved that goal yet, and that’s a major factor for your answer. Well if that’s the case, probability states you have plenty and plenty of time to figure things out, so don’t worry about it.

Unfortunately for the 2019 Reds, they don’t have that luxury, as time begins to grow shorter to flip things around this season.

What’s the point of this article you may be asking? Why Am I such a hater? Why am throwing in the towel so early? Aren’t we supposed to blindly follow our teams to the depths of Hell and back no matter what their record is?

The simple answer is it’s smarter to realize what exactly this team is made of sooner rather than later, because then we can figure out how to salvage anything from this roster through trades at the deadline, and start planning for next year. It’s to avoid the mistakes of making crucial roster moves at the wrong time (Todd Fraizer, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Cozart). Although it sounds rather cynical to say so, here’s why the season may be a lost cause for the Reds, if they want to have any sort of game plan to improve before it’s too late.

The Competition

Christian Yelich, Paul Goldschmidt, Kris Bryant, Josh Bell, Zach Davies, Marcell Ozuna, Anthony Rizzo, Trevor Williams, Lorenzo Cain, Javier Baez, Josh Hader.

It’s a good thing we have to face these guys like what, every other series right?

Against all NL Central opponents, the Reds are 10-16. That’s including a record of 4-2 against the NL Cenral leading Chicago Cubs. Let that one sink in for a moment. Do you think the Reds can sustain that pace against them?

These are the teams the Reds need to play on par with if they want any success this year, and so far they haven’t answered the call.

Looking at baseball reference’s playoff odds simulator, The NL Central is predicted to be the strongest division in baseball when it’s all said and done, with the finally over 500. Reds still sitting fifth with a projected record of 85-77. There are wild card teams who have snuck in at that record, look at the 2017 Twins for example. The cramped NL Central just isn’t the right environment for a team like this to survive.

I suppose you could argue that finishing above .500 would be a success for the Reds, even if it comes at the cost of finishing last in the Central again. Just know that doing so is celebrating over a participation trophy, which doesn’t sound so fun.

Poor Hitting

In losses for the Reds, the team as a whole is slashing a putrid .204/.270/.325 . By comparison, Chris Davis, the feared and revered Orioles slugger is pounding a similar .171/.257/.319. Not good Bob, not good.

Looking at team rankings, the Reds are 24th in batting average and on-base percentage with rates of .223 and .305 respectively, and they’re also 22nd in slugging with a percentage of .411 .

Regular names like Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Jose Peraza, Tucker Barnhart, even Joey Votto have just been tough to watch so far. Really unless your name is Eugenio Suarez, Derek Dietrich, or Jose Iglesias, chances are it’s been a tough go around for you so far.

Of course, April was a dreadful month for the team as a whole. They’ve begun to heat up recently so perhaps there’s hope? As a team in their past 7 games, they’ve slashed .328/.387/.564 . Hopefully our sluggers can tap into this short hot streak.

One Run Games

Sure, if you’ve been paying attention to the telecasts, or doing some research on your own, you already know how dreadful the Reds are in one run games, but it’s worth reiterating.

The Reds as I type away, are simply not clutch when the situation calls for it. As of publishing, the Reds are 8-13 in one run games. However, in blowout games, (5+ runs) they’re 9-5. This is partly where you get that wonky run differential the Reds have at +36, but still have a record that speaks less.

Flat Out Luck

Baseball is a sport that is depended on luck more than any other, and unfortunately for the Reds, the theoretical ball is simply not bouncing their way this year. Of course, the previously mentioned run differential is at +36, which is second best in the division to the Cubs, and second best of all the teams in the wild card hunt behind the Diamondbacks at +43. Baseball Reference’s Pythagorean W-L has the Reds pegged at 32-24, which would tie the Cubs for the division lead. It really hurt me to type that so I’m going to guess that it’s going to hurt you to read as well.

Having been born and raised in Cincinnati, eating Skyline Chili and rooting on the Reds have gone hand in hand. Free times are usually spent scouring the web on Reds information, playing OOTP or the The Show, and pretty much filling up a baseball addiction through any means possible. Personal favorite memories include Jay Bruce's walk-off clinching Central title, watching Joey Votto do his thing, and Jonny Gomes' at bat shenanigans

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Cincinnati Reds

Unappreciated Cincinnati Reds: Kyle Farmer

Numbers don’t tell the whole story when you look at Kyle Farmer. His value goes far beyond the box score.

Clay Snowden

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© Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports

On December 21st, 2018, the Dodgers and Reds made a splash in the offseason with a blockbuster deal. The Reds received aging all-star Matt Kemp, animated outfielder Yasiel Puig, lefty Alex Wood, and a versatile utility player named Kyle Farmer. While Kemp’s Reds career ended after 20 games and fan favorite (and now U.S. citizen) Puig’s career ended in a trade, Wood and Farmer very much could be part of the Reds future.

What Kyle Farmer brings to this team is far beyond the box score. David Bell has shown trust and confidence in Farmer and his ability to pinch-hit. Offensively Farmer has improved from his first two seasons in LA. Over two seasons with the Dodgers he only played in 59 games and had 88 at bats. A .250 hitter with no home runs his value might have seen minimal. Reds fans saw his value immediately in spring training when he would catch bullpens then play short and second. Due to injuries, he found himself on the 25-man roster to begin the season. Many thought he would be the first sent down but his pinch-hitting and versatility proved his value to be too high. Farmer has played first, second, third, catcher, and pitcher. I have to mention his pitching stat line: 1.1 innings 1 hit 0.00 ERA. Hell yeah. With Casali injured Farmer has stepped in as the team’s second catcher and Alex Wood’s “personal” catcher. As many of you all know Wood and Farmer have been teammates and friends for a long time. The familiarity they have only helps each other during the game. Farmer’s 7 home runs look good, but his other numbers could use some work. .248/.288/.438 and 45 K’s to only 5 BB are not great. Improving on the walk to K ratio would go along way for his development. If you watched the Cubs series, you saw a few great plays he made at second. He is no Jose Iglesias, but he can hold his own.

How does Farmer play into the Reds future? Well, it’s no secret that the catching depth is not the Reds strength. Tucker is under contract but Casali is on a one-year deal, with arbitration left. In the minors, Tyler Stephenson looks promising but after that it’s slim. Questions on where Jose Iglesias (if resigned), Galvis, Peraza, VanMeter, Dietrich, and even Blandino will get playing time could limit Farmer’s time at second base. Votto will get plenty of off days next season and Farmer could pick up at-bats at first. Dietrich, if brought back, might get the at bats against right handers. What if Alex Wood is resigned? You could keep Farmer as a pinch hitter/late game sub and have him catch Wood every fifth game. His ability to catch opens opportunities for Bell to pinch hit his backup catcher (Casali) and not worry about a “what if” situation when they need a catcher in late innings/extras.

While there are plenty of unknowns about this team as the offseason approaches, we do know that David Bell values versatility and Farmer brings just that. Maybe knowing that he really does deserve to be in the big leagues will help his confidence going into the offseason. Either way, he’s a fun player to watch and adds value to this Reds club.
Here’s a couple of home runs for you:

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Cincinnati Reds

Series Recap: Chicago Cubs

Here’s what we learned about the Reds, moving forward in 2019, after the weekend against the Cubs.

Clay Snowden

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© David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Reds split a series with the Chicago Cubs in August and the fans feel upset. As strange as it might sound, that’s a good sign. In recent years I would be excited about splitting with the Cubs in August. The upset feeling shows this team is different. Expectations have changed. What we saw over the past four games leads fans to believe the future is bright.

The buzz across Reds twitter Thursday was refreshing to see. Fans were more engaged and thrilled to see the Reds welcome the first place Cubs to town for a four-game tilt.

Well, the first game was not a good start. Wood had a rough start going only three innings, Gausman made his debut, Sims showed a strong outing and David Hernandez did much of what he has been doing all season; disappointing fans. Hernandez, like many announcers have said after a pitch he’s thrown, “He’s gone”. We did see Phillip Ervin deliver a 4-hit night, Aquino continues to catch everyone’s attention, and Kyle Farmer displays his versatility by pitching 1.1 innings surrendering one lone hit and throwing slightly slower than Aroldis Chapman.

Friday was a different story. Trevor Bauer gave up a homer to new Cub and new Reds killer Nicholas Castellanos then was smooth sailing as he went 7 innings. The Reds collected 6 hits with no one having more than 1 but it was enough to show they wouldn’t go away easily.

Was Saturday the best Reds game this year? If seeing Cubs fans mad ranks high on your list than it might have been. Everyone besides Sal Romano had a hit and Aquino is now *checks notes for confirmation* the best player to ever play the game. His three homers and going back to back with Senzel gave us a glimpse into the future. Sonny Gray’s 2 hits allowed matched his 2 RBI he had at the plate. Sal Romano earned the rare 3 out save and Brian O’Grady had his first big league hit. The Reds won and momentum for Sunday was at a level we haven’t seen this season.

https://www.mlb.com/reds/video/o-grady-s-1st-big-league-hit

Having the Ace on the mound was not enough to earn the win Sunday. Castilo went 6.2 innings with 3 ER but Michael Lorenzen could not get an out. Bryant’s homer gave the Cubs the lead and they didn’t look back. A disappointing and frustrating loss to say the least. Jeff Carr said it best: “This is kinda where the Reds are in 2019. They are fun, they are interesting, they are entertaining…they are not a playoff team.”

What we learned from this series:
– Aquino is not only fun to watch but he is a legit piece for the future
– Sal Romano and Lucas Sims will get a chance to show how they can play into 2020
– Ian Happ and Nickolas Castellanos are banned for the City of Cincinnati (waiting on confirmation)
– Kyle Farmer had some great defensive plays and is very important to this team (Farmer article coming soon)
– Angel Hernandez should be embarrassed
– The Reds missed an opportunity to climb the standing but didn’t completely fall out

All in all, it was a fun series and seeing the fanbase this interested and invested in August is refreshing. Still plenty to learn about this roster and what it could look like next year. Let’s see if the Punisher can hit one to the White House.

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Cincinnati Reds

VanMeter, Aquino, O’Grady – What They Bring Now and in the Future

Theis trio of guys who have come out of nowhere, in 2019, now have a shot to stick on for the years of contention.

Clay Snowden

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© David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

As spring training 2019 rolled around you were likely excited to see the Reds new slugger Yasiel Puig. Maybe you kept tabs on Sony Gray and his bounce back from a not so ideal year. Other prospects and veterans such as Derek Dietrich and Jose Iglesias were intriguing to watch as you tried to find out how the Reds would work the few extra pieces into the opening day roster. Three names probably not on your radar were Josh VanMeter, Brian O’Grady, and Aristides Aquino. Those three names are now getting a chance to prove their talent while also trying to earn a 2020 spot on the roster.

Josh VanMeter was left off the Reds “Top 30 Prospect” list this year. He had played well in 2018 for the Bats and started the year in Louisville where he found his stroke. .348 BA 14 HR 43 RBI .429 OBP. Not bad for what many had written off as a good minor league player and not much more. What I have noticed with his time in the show is his versatility and approach at the plate. He can play a few different positions and we all know how much David Bell values versatility. VanMeter has already drawn 14 walks in 88 104 PA (take note Peraza). He had 8 steals with the Bats but has already swiped 4 bags in his time with the Reds. The trade of Scooter shows the Reds will be looking for a new second baseman next season and VanMeter will have a shot to compete to be just that.

Aristides Aquino looked like he might have gone down as one of the obscure former Reds (@ObscureExReds) after getting one at-bat last season and striking out. Removed from the 40 man roster after 2018 returning to the Reds did not look likely. Signed on a minor league deal, he returned to Louisville to show he was still the sought-after prospect he once was. A change in approach and a slight change in his swing led to Aquino having a monster season with the Bats. .299 BA was up from his .227 career average in AA. 28 HR caught the eyes of many fans calling for him to get another chance. Since being called up he has made the most of his opportunity. Only 13 PA but he does have 4 hits and a home run. Being able to cut down on strikeouts have always been his flaw. The new approach seems to be working. A strong finish to 2019 would set Aquino up well for 2020 to be an option. He has been mostly a right fielder but did appear in 5 games in center for the Bats.

Brian O’Grady is a great story. An “older” prospect at 27 many might not have had him on their radar after he hit only .185 in 2017. 2018 looked much more promising as he bounced back in a big way to hit .306 in Louisville. 2019 has shown just how far he has come since 2017. .277 BA 27 HR 70 RBI 27 doubles while also stealing 16 bags. He hasn’t made his debut yet after joining the Reds yesterday (8/5) but his skill set will help this team now and hopefully in the future. In Louisville he played mainly first and center but also logged innings at third and left. With Dietrich injured O’Grady will step in and fill his void. A lefty bat off the bench who can play multiple positions.

While none of these three players are guaranteed a roster spot in 2020, I would imagine each will get his shot. Two are lefty bats that have stolen some bases and can play multiple positions and the other is a corner outfielder with a strong arm and pop. They will have to show they belong in spring training, but their auditions have already begun.

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