The Cincinnati Reds (13-18) are ready for their first weekend home series of 2019 as they welcome the San Francisco Giants (13-18) to town. More importantly, Nick Senzel is here!
After languishing in the minors for what seems like a decade (he was drafted in 2016), the Reds top prospect finally gets the call. He has already been announced as the starting centerfielder and batting second, in Friday night’s lineup.
For many of us who have clamored for him to be getting everyday reps since, pretty much, last spring, this will be a day long remembered. There are numerous articles on the many outlets with which you can get Reds news, but none more telling than C. Trent Rosecrans’ piece at The Athletic. C. Trent interviewed pretty much the entire scouting department responsible for drafting Senzel and they outline how they’ve pretty much had him on their radar since 2011 when he was a sophomore at Farragut High School in Tennessee.
You can look at his minor league numbers, if you want, but it’s the scout’s grades that are best served, in this case, as rarely do minor league statistics have any predictive correlation to major league success.
|55 / 70||40 / 55||55 / 55||55 / 55||45 / 55||55 / 55||60|
As they break it down at fangraphs.com, 50 is Major League average, 60 is plus, and 70 is plus-plus.
His first big league taste will come at home against a team that is in the exact same spot as the Reds. The Giants not only share the same record, but also find themselves at the do-or-die potion of their schedule where if they do not get going now, they can about count themselves out of the race in 2019.
They even profile about the same. As a team they’re hitting .214 (second worst only to the Reds) and have an ERA of 3.72 (fourth in the National League).
On the hitting side, the Reds will need to watch out for Brandon Belt and Kevin Pillar. Both share the team-lead in homers (five) while Pillar sports 18 RBI and Belt is the only Giants hitter with an OPS+ above 100 (118).
Pitching-wise, for this four-game, wrap around series, just two Giants starters are listed.
Tonight the Reds will face Tyler Beede, a 25-year old righty pitching in just his third major league game (he pitched a pair last year). He allowed seven earned runs in 7.2 innings pitched, total, last year. He managed nine strikeouts, but also tallied eight walks and nine hits allowed. With that limited exposure, it’s worth looking at the scouting grades on him. They have a plus rating on his changeup, but everything else is at league average or below and doesn’t predict to improve much.
|55 / 55||50 / 50||55 / 60||50 / 50||40 / 45||40|
Saturday’s starter is a bit better. Dereck Rodriguez showed his potential for San Francisco last season when he finished the year with a sub-3.00 ERA (2.81) in 19 starts. 2019 has not been as kind, to start, for him, though, as he sports a 4.35 ERA in six starts and is allowing 1.45 home runs per nine innings. I got the chance to see Rodriguez pitch, in person, last season when he faced the Padres, in San Diego, and held them to one run in seven innings. Saturday may be a mixed bag for the Reds lineup.
With the other Derek on San Fran’s squad (Holland) currently on the shelf, due to a bruised phalange, that leaves two of Drew Pomeranz, Jeff Samardzija, and Madison Bumgarner to round out the four-game set. There’s one name I would like to see them avoid, there, and it doesn’t rhyme with Tomeranz or S’mores-ya?
UPDATE: Samardzija will be the Giants starter on Sunday and Pomeranz will be Monday’s starter, meaning Bumgarner will, in fact, be missed in this four-game set.
Samardzija (0.6) leads the Giants in WAR, according to baseball-reference.com, as he has a 2.53 ERA in 32 innings. In 90 career innings against the Reds, he has a 4.00 ERA, having allowed 87 hits (10 homers).
Pomeranz has pitched the least amount of innings (28.2) of any Giants starter (six starts). He has one career start at Great American Ballpark (June 25, 2016) in which he tossed seven innings of shutout ball for the San Diego Padres, allowing just three hits and fanning six.
On the bump for the Reds, will be Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Luis Castillo, and Anthony DeSclafani, in that order. I’ll be there to see Roark, in person, which I have not yet done, but I am most interested for Gray’s start. More so for how the team supports him than how he pitches. The only two games which he has pitched that the Reds have scored more than two runs, he has no decisions in.
This starts a stretch of 10 games that the Reds really need to win at least seven. If they can do that, they will begin the tough part of their schedule right around .500. It’s not that farfetched to think they can pull it off.
Read The Room
David Bell has made some interesting choices, some that he may want to tweak his thought process on. Let me explain.
On Monday’s podcast my friend Jeff stated he liked the fact that David Bell was able to remove himself from the equations on many big decisions. He stated that by focusing on the analytics Bell is able to make an objective decision versus a gut decision. I won’t disagree with fact that I am loving the front office and managements use of analytics. I, like most Reds fans, love to see the organization finally joining this century of baseball thinking in full force, from an analytics stand point. However, while I do support the use of analytics in helping make decisions, I don’t feel as if it should be the sole reason for decision making.
The best managers in the history of this game are often forward-thinking and also having the right instinct at crucial points in games. I think the Reds, and even David Bell, are some of the most forward thinking in baseball right now. We have seen it in all the new positions created this offseason specifically for analytics within the Reds front office. The Reds outfielders carry cards based on each pitcher and each batter in where to align themselves. The infield is making unique shifts. Bell seems opposite of his predecessor, because he despises bunting frequently. The amazing performance by our pitching staff which has been one of the worst in recent years. I believe these things will continue to help this team as the season continues. I also believe it’s one of the main reasons we have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball right now.
On the flip side of this is the daily, head-scratching decisions Bell has made. The constant hooking of starting staff or bullpen pitchers too early. This isn’t just something making fans question his decisions, but his players as well. I have seen almost every starting pitcher this year, on at least one occasion, have a baffled look after being removed to early. Bell often pulling starters in a close game due to the “third time around the order” analytics. In regards to the bullpen often pulling relievers early who are up there throwing smoke and no one is touching them. All that started back on Opening Day when he used three relievers, each for one out in the bottom of the ninth. Then when it comes to the lineup we are often seeing players who may be crushing it that day pulled for favorable situational matchups such as lefty right or righty lefty. On several occasions I’ve seen him pull Dietrich or Winker when there out there hitting rockets just for an analytic advantage. It often causes me to yell at my television.
One of my favorite sayings is “READ THE ROOM”. Bell desperately needs to “READ THE ROOM” in more crucial situations. Leaving pitchers in to go one extra innning in a start or relief when there mowing batters over. Leaving a guy in the lineup who is on fire rather than pulling him for a analytic matchup. This shows faith in your players as well as your instincts as a manager. It’s what differentiates the best coaches from everyone else. It’s the knowledge that no amount of statistics can provide and it will ultimately be what puts this team over the top. In recent weeks I have seen signs of this coming to fruition. I hope to see more of it as the season goes on. And I promise you Reds fans when it does the most important statistic WINS will come much easier.
Reds Catchers Now and in the Future
Let’s take a look at the catching picture for the Reds organization.
In late September of 2017, the Cincinnati Reds locked up Tucker Barnhart to a 4-year, $16 million contract. And why not? Barnhart hit .270 in 2017 and was a gold glove winner. $4 million a year for him was a steal. Fans were ecstatic about the deal, especially at the price. Don’t get me wrong, having a catcher with a career average of .248 with about 10 home runs a year and a great glove is something most teams are satisfied with. It’s more about what he does with the pitching staff and defense than the hitting. But in 2019, although only 100 at-bats in, how concerned should Reds fans be about their catching situation now and in the future?
The Reds currently have two active catchers: Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali. Barnhart has struggled mightily out of the gate. A .160/.282/.270 line is not anywhere close to his career numbers. Adding to that, he only has two hits in the past 10 games. A switch hitter with only 10 at bats versus Left-handed pitchers tells us Bell wants Casali taking those at-bats.
Curt Casali has put together a great season for the Reds. Acquired off waiver last year from Tampa Bay he hit .310 before the All-Star break. In 2019 he is hitting to the tune of .293/.349/.379. When used as a pinch hitter, he’s delivered at times for the Reds. Although Casali is the better hitter so far, I do not think it is time to give up on Barnhart. 100 at-bats into a season with plenty to go. *Deep breath* He can still put together a decent season. Something needs to change though, drastically. Right now, the Reds have bigger issues than the catcher’s spot. But will Casali take reigns as the team’s number one catcher? A lot of fans are calling for it. Keep in mind Casali is a career .229 hitter. He has been streaky in the past. The Reds will probably continue to platoon and giving at-bats to Casali against left-handed pitchers. 2019 catcher situation is pretty much locked in. The depth at AAA Louisville are not “prospects” and haven’t shown to be MLB hitters either. The question is what will it look like in the future?
Tyler Stephenson is one of the top prospects in the Reds organization (#6 mlb.com) and is showing his potential this year in Chattanooga. A first-round pick in 2015, he’s struggled with injuries early in his career and is now showing his potential. Hitting .267 with 3 HR and 18 RBI while throwing out 26% of baserunners is a nice start to the first part of the season. He won’t be in Cincinnati this year, who knows where he will start next year, but he plays into the future of the Reds.
There are some other options in the minors. Chris Okey (#30 Reds prospect) was drafted in the second round of 2016 but has really struggled with the bat. Hendrik Clementina (#23 Reds prospect) is someone to watch. He was acquired in the Tony Cingrani trade and hit 18 home runs with Dayton in 2018. He has some pop and but also strikes out too much. We all know how frustrating that can be. Other than those 3, the Reds do not have another top 30 catching prospects. A thin position of depth look for the Reds to bring in more talent this year.
The Reds catching future is banking on Stephenson and Barnhart to be the guys. That could end up being just fine, but it also doesn’t leave much room for error. Casali has two arbitration year left and is 30 years old. He could be a Red past this year, sure. Good catchers are hard to find and that’s why the asking price is so high (paging JT). I would expect the Reds to try to add depth here through the draft or offseason. The quick fix would be Tucker returning closer to 2017 form but who knows if that will happen.
What The Reds Should Be
Wednesday night was a glimpse at this team’s potential.
If you were able to witness tonight’s win over the scorching hot Chicago Cubs you were probably ecstatic. It was a comeback win, in extra innings, and a one-run game. In a season clouded by early disappointment and many missed opportunities, tonight we witnessed the Reds full potential.
This game had all the markings of what was shaping up to be another Reds loss. A five-inning start by the pitcher, playing from behind almost the entire game, and constant pitching changes. Instead the Reds played together and won, as a team. The chemistry we see off the field was finally seen on the field. The bullpen stepped up when they needed to. Stephenson, Hughes, Peralta, and Garrett all providing top notch performances. Garrett making what seemed to be an impossible out at first to save a run from scoring. When providing a clutch at-bat was needed, we saw it from nearly everyone put on the spot. Senzel with 2 hits and 2 stolen bases. Iglesias continues to be the Reds MVP of position players having a double and solo home run to keep the Reds in contention. Suarez starting to catch fire with a 3-for-5 evening, 3 RBI’s, a double, and a 2 run HR in the eighth inning to tie up the game. Quietly, Joey Votto was the one who actually came up big, in the clutch, during the eighth, with a single. He then scored on Suarez’s dinger. Then again in the 10th inning with a one-out walk. For the icing on the cake the player all of Cincinnati wants to see perform comes up to seal the deal. And most importantly the extra innings walk-off hit by Puig with a bat flip for Reds highlight reels for years to come happened.
What made it most glorious was the absolute look of disappointment on Cubs fans faces as the Reds came back to pull off the comeback win. Wednesday, we saw the Reds full potential as a team. This is the Reds ceiling as a team performance. I hope we grow accustomed to this scene more often and start to see them compete in this division. There is no doubt they are in the toughest division in baseball. That being said, they can absolutely shake things up whenever they decide to get hot. I know it’s possible. I just hope it’s not too late when it does.