Hi, my name is Jeff and I am a Reds-a-holic.
It’s been a problem the last few years. I bring the Reds up in conversation and people either blatantly ignore me for the rest of our time together, their eyes glaze over while they’re faking undivided attention, or they laugh and walk away. The Redlegs need to do some things, plural (because, let’s face it, if all they do is add Mike Trout, they still aren’t a playoff team), to re-insert themselves back into people’s minds as something worth their attention. As a degenerate fan who knows next-to-nothing about running a team (though I was not bad at fantasy baseball, not to brag) here are some obvious, and not so obvious ideas to get this Reds team back to the playoffs tomorrow, let alone next season.
Some people to move on from: Like I said, some are obvious and some aren’t, and some you might want me murdered for mentioning.
First and foremost, sign the check and send Homer Bailey on his way. It’s done, it’s over. He is now one of just a small percentage of pitchers who managed to throw over 200 innings in a season and somehow have a 6.00+ ERA. It’s not health, strangely. The man of many injuries did not go down for an extended period of time. And, come on, the time he missed during the summer was not an injury. That was the Reds brass saying “We need a reason not to play him, so, uh, he’s hurt, maybe.” The one thing you can say about him is he pitched the lone complete game for a Reds staff that was not good. He still lost that game. He’s due $30 mil whether he loses 20 games for you, or not, so just give him his money, and thanks for the memories.
Secondly, move on from Billy Hamilton. This one stings to admit, because, as a fan, I think he’s awesome. Objectively, though, it’s time. Listen, I know there’s this argument that on-base percentage does not apply to Billy like it applies to other players because he scores a higher percentage of runs when he is on base. Baloney. Plus, double baloney on his base-running ability as his steals took a dip this year. Call it conservative managing, or whatever you like, he stole less bases. Billy Hamilton should lead the league in steals every single year, barring a career-altering injury. He didn’t. It’s a bad sign. Find a team who will use him the way he should be used (as a late game super sub) and make a deal for a reliever or for a minor league arm.
Thirdly, and this one stings, because I love this dude, but move on from Scooter Gennett. I’ve been back and forth on this one, and believe me, if my fan heart was not sure about Billy, I’m really not loving this idea, but it has to be done. There is a caveat here, but if there is a good return to be had, do not say no. If there’s no market for him, then keep him. But if you can get a game-changing arm for Scooter and maybe a package of prospects, please don’t dismiss that idea simply because we fans like Scooter. I get it, he’s a hometown dude. He hit four homers in a game. He *almost won the NL batting title this year. He is legit, which means he should garner some trade interest. Do not slap a hypothetical no-trade tag on Scooter simply because he makes a few more fans go woo. There is a defensive upgrade, who is not a liability at the plate, who can take over in his absence, but more on that later.
Lastly, move on from Jim Riggleman. The manager is not the most important thing in a championship run, but he is kind of important, and Riggsy isn’t the guy to get the reds there. This has been said by James a lot, and by other radio personalities in the Queen City, but I’ll just pile on here. The Red Sox are the best team in the AL, with a relatively inexperienced manager. The Yankees are not far behind, with a first-year manager. The Brewers have a manager that some of their fans aren’t high on, and he’s young, but hey, that didn’t stop them from winning the toughest division the National League. Be open-minded about the next Reds manager-aka-go with Mr. Outside Hire.
Here’s who you bring in. Disclaimer, this is all hypothetical. I don’t actually know who’s available and who’s not. So, yeah, take this with a grain of salt.
Go get Jacob DeGrom. Per Baseball-Reference.com, his contract is up at the end of this year. Make a deal before Christmas, send Hunter Greene, Scooter Gennett, Tony Santillan and some other prospects and see if the Mets will add in Brandon Nimmo (can play CF, .404 OBP in 2018). If you’re reading this, you’re probably aware of the ridiculous numbers DeGrom put up this year. Some consider him in the MVP race, despite the Mets horribleness. Yeah, MVP, for a pitcher, that’s how good he is. So, maybe the Mets lock him down, or maybe they are looking to blow things up. The Reds have a top ten farm system, but no one cares about what the Reds can do in 2021, we want wins in 2019. Make it happen, captain!
Roll out the red carpet, and the checkbook, for Dallas Keuchel. Do what he wants to get him to pitch for the Reds. There’s money to spend, and he probably loves Skyline Chili, so get him here. He’s a free agent, this year, so no players will have to be traded away to get him, there will just need to be some money spent. What’s that? You are planning on spending for pitching? Well, there you go. Your money will be well spent on both DeGrom and Keuchel, and neither one will be like Eric Milton. You put these two at the top and all NL teams immediately will take notice.
Go get one more pitcher with Scott Schebler. Look, Schebs has been good, but it feels like he’s trending toward brittle, with that shoulder, and now is the time to get value out of him. Go talk to Seattle about Marco Gonzales or Wade LeBlanc, or maybe see if Detroit is willing to part ways with Michael Fullmer or Matt Boyd. It doesn’t seem that farfetched, to me, but maybe Dick Williams gets laughed off the phone in all of those examples. At any rate, I feel like there’s still a little value to be had from trading Schebler to an AL team that can DH him. I do not think he will ever have an outfield arm again, with his shoulder issues, so get him traded, while you still can.
Bring up Senzel and name him the starter immediately after trading Schebler. Don’t wait until Spring Training, or whatever you’ve been doing lately with him, give him the starting corner outfield spot as soon as you swap Schebs for a decent arm. Senzel will replace Schebler, and may even be an upgrade. Or, go the Phil Ervin route in the corner outfield spot, and put Senzel at shortstop and…
Install Jose Peraza as the everyday second baseman, upon Scooter’s departure. Look, he isn’t a plus fielder, but he is serviceable and when you move him to second base, you negate his throwing deficiencies. Plus, he took a big leap forward in the hitting department, this year, making him a top of the lineup candidate in 2019.
Lastly, and this is just my hard and fast opinion, based on nothing but a gut feeling: go get Mike Scioscia. Just a hunch, think he’ll be good.
Alright, I’ve droned on enough. Tell me what you think, @ me on Twitter (@jefffcarr) and all that jazz. Tell me I’m nuts, tell me I’m a looney. Let’s talk the 2019 Reds!
Also follow @lockedonReds on Twitter, if you haven’t already!
Cincinnati Reds Roster Breakdown: Non Roster Invitees
Let’s take a look at the non-roster invitees trying to make the Cincinnati Reds roster during this Spring Training
WELCOME BAAAAAAACK! The Reds kick off the 2021 season on Sunday with their first spring training game. As I do each spring training, I am going to take a look at the non roster invitees (NRI) and how they could impact the team this season.
R.J. Alaniz, Matt Ball, Cam Bedrosian, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle, Josh Osich, Branden Shipley, Bo Takahashi
You might recognize a couple of these names. Alaniz has been around the organization the past couple of years and pitched 11.2 innings with the Reds in 2019. Biddle was a guy who was around last year, but the others are new. Carle (76.1 in), Osich (206.1 in), Shipley (100 in) have experience in the show with moderate results. Cam Bedrosian is the name to know here. The fact that he was signed on with a minor league deal is surprising. 277.2 innings with a 3.70 ERA has been a solid MLB pitcher. 2019 batters hit .207/.283/.336 and in 2020 they hit .196/.276/.255. His spin rate is gritty darn good honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a minor league deal that really is a promise on the roster. Think Jose Iglesias who was also a NRI a couple years back. This allows the Reds to delay their decision on making a 40 man roster move.
For a team that lost Rasiel Iglesias, Bradley, maybe Antone and Lorenzen to the rotation, Bedrosian will have a chance to really earn a legit role with this team. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a scenario where Shipley or Carle get innings this year.
Bittle and Osich are lefties that would have battled for the other LHP spot in the pen, but the signing of Doolittle bumps them to depth roles.
A 33 year old catcher with 37 at bats and a career .108 avg. Id say that there is not much to see here. Stephenson and Tucker are the one two punch and the offseason addition of Deivy Grullon will provide a younger depth option with a higher upside than Gale.
Cheslor Cuthbert, Dee Strange-Gordon (not listed on Reds roster yet)
Cuthbert isn’t a household name, but he does have over 1,000 at bats in the MLB. He had a decent season in ’16 with the Royals batting .274/.318/.413 and 12 HR, but he hasn’t shown enough to be a full time MLB player. Corner infield depth.
Here’s where I stand on Dee….If he is here to battle for a utility role, that’s fine with me. If he is here to be some variation of an answer at SS, we are in trouble. A 32 year old poor defender (who on the Reds isn’t at this point) who doesn’t have any power and doesn’t get on base. Yeah, he has stolen some bases. We all know speed is one of the first things to go when you age, and he still has some jump, but I don’t think it’s game changing speed at this point, and it’s useless unless he’s on base. I’m not high on Strange Gordan making an impact.
Nicky Delmonico, Tyler Naquin, Dwight Smith
I was worried about the Reds outfield depth. It’s a sneaky need, especially of Aquino doesn’t bounce back. This group of NRI is a group I am excited about. All have MLB experience and have had their moments. Delmonico had a nice (small sample size) rookie year with the White Sox in 2017, but has been worse each year since then. It’s the other two that catch my eye.
Dwight Smith has shown he has some pop in his bat. He is the type of player that you want to have in AAA ready to fill in if needed. Tyler Naquin is a guy I think could actually contribute to this team. We know 2020 was a small sample size, but look at the hard hit and exit velo. And his outfield jump/Outs above avg. fit in well with the team that doesn’t seem to care about defense.
He had a great rookie year in ’16, and has had moments since. .288/.325/.467 10 HR 19 2B in 2019 would be a good bench bat. The question is…is he better than Aquino/Heineman/Payton? Him and Payton are the two leftieis of the group. At the very least, I think he is great organizational depth, and I think his floor is a higher floor than the group listed above (maybe Aquino can make me eat crow there)
This list is different than most years. Not as many players listed, and no prospects. The number of players at Spring Training will be smaller than years past. Overall, I think theres 2-3 guys who could earn a role on the Reds 2021 roster.
Monday Morning Manager: The Snell Effect
David Bell has many things he needs to go right in order to win games and get a contract extension. One thing he can control is a decision-making process that should not be made entirely analytically.
In case you lived under a rock last year (and that might be Truer than in any other year) then you know how the World Series went down with the Rays falling to the Dodgers. You may even know about Blake Snell’s improbable removal from Game Six when he was absolutely on fire. This is something David Bell cannot mess up in 2021.
Ok, so in the grand scheme of things, I’m talking about the correct managing of the bullpen and rotation in pressure situations. Most people will look at the Game Six managing of Kevin Cash and see two things: a man sticking to his system that got him there and a man over-thinking things. Neither thoughts are incorrect.
In this day and age of baseball, most people understand statistical evaluations on pitchers favoring removing a starter before they pitch to the opposing lineup for the third time in a game. Well, maybe, because the numbers are a bit different in 2020, small sample size, and all. In fact, the Reds pitching staff held opponents to a .599 OPS in 253 plate appearances the third time through the order, last year. That may be a smoke screen, though, as the 2019 Reds pitching staff (largely similar to 2020) allowed an OPS of .892 in 799 PA. That’s a bit of a more reliable sample size, which would leave me to believe a starter pitching a third time through the order isn’t the most favorable idea.
Also something David Bell must consider is the overthinking aspect. In this Player’s Tribune post by the man, Blake Snell, himself, he points out the immense effect that simply seeing someone warming up in the bullpen had on him. Now, you can say “Well, that shouldn’t have been an issue, he should have sucked it up and pitched!” The dude is a human being. If you saw the person management was likely to replace you with if you messed something up at your job, are you going to just keep on keeping on with no thought to look over your shoulder? If you are, you might be a Jedi. Most of us mere mortals have problems with worrying about what might happen if things fall apart. Baseball players are not totally immune to this, either.
In order for Bell to garner a contract extension, he will have to adeptly manage a pitching staff that has talent, but also has human egos. Just because the numbers say that a decision should go one way, the human element must also be factored in. Last I checked, theres no button for that on a calculator, which leaves it up to his own decision-making skill.
The Cincinnati Reds Optimal Lineup
Let’s look past the Opening Day Lineup to the lineup the Cincinnati Reds could have, if everything is going right.
There will be many things said/written about the Opening Day Lineup and what that should like for the Cincinnati Reds. With the first full team workout happening Monday, let’s take a look at what the lineup should look like if things are going well for the Reds, this season. I’m going to exclude positions for this experiment and you’ll see why.
- Shogo Akiyama – Ideally, Shogo will be getting on base much closer to the clip he posted in September than the one he did in August of last year. If he does this, he will be producing what the Reds hoped he would when they made him the first Japanese-born Cincinnati Red.
- Jesse Winker – He broke out in a big way in 2020 and was the Reds best hitter. There’s no reason to think that won’t, at the very least, continue and probably will even get better.
- Eugenio Suarez – He should be the Reds best hitter and I believe he will regain that title in 2021.
- Mike Moustakas – Moose has always been a run driver-inner and, if things are going well he will continue to do so.
- Nick Castellanos – he could be the third hitter, but it would be an amazing season, indeed, if he gets on-base at a higher clip than Geno.
- Joey Votto – this isn’t meant to be an insult, just realistic. I’ve seen and heard takes putting him in the three-spot. That’s a great idea in 2017. Now, any power should be considered a bonus with the main expectation of him being an on-base catalyst for the bottom of the lineup/turning over of the lineup.
- Nick Senzel – him being down here is more a hope that the top six indeed prove worthy to be top six. This is also hoping he’s healthy enough to play everyday, or almost everyday, and build up enough momentum to produce at the level he is capable of. Also, the not labelling defensive position thing is because he should be in the running as a shortstop option, but it sure feels like that’s not the case. Before you say, “Jeff, he’s not a shortstop…” who on this roster is? Get the best eight (nine if the NL miraculously gets the DH) in the lineup and worry about defense later. That’s pretty much how this roster is built, anyway.
- Tyler Stephenson – in a few years, he should be hitting in the middle of the order. In 2021, let’s keep the pressure on low and watch him thrive in the box.
- Pitcher (again, we’ll reassess if the players and owners ever get together and figure this out before the season begins, but we aren’t holding our breath).
This lineup could be pretty good…maybe. As fans we can hope, the folks who run the Reds should not lean on that. The lineup I propose should only be if each player is performing to the level that is expected of him. More than likely, this lineup will not happen, because it is doubtful every single bat bounces back in 2021.