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Locked On Reds January Mailbag

Clay Snowden answers your questions about the Reds.

Clay Snowden

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You’ve got questions, Clay Snowden has answers!

Who will be the 26th man? (@ztrain21)

I think it will be filled by a “specialist” position player. Read my article about it here:

https://lockedonreds.wpengine.com/reds/cincinnati-reds-26th-man/

Where do you see the Reds in 4 years? (@Dallen4122)

The 2024 Reds will look different. Hopefully, a couple new trophies are added. Votto will be in the “team option” year along with Moustakas. Suarez is signed and many other players will be going through arbitration. Other than that, who knows what the roster will look like. I think many fans are tired of looking forward to what the Reds might be and are ready to see what a playoff team looks like.

How many wins do you see if the current roster doesn’t change? Will they be NL Central champs? (@Win1SuperBowl & @MattyWane)

Projecting wins is never easy (or accurate) in early January, but let’s throw a number out. 84? 86? Too many factors remain. We must assume other teams in the division do not make another move (They will make more moves) so pinning a January champ is hard. As it stands today, 1/6/202, I do not think the Reds win the NL Central. Clear up the outfield and shortstop situation and ask me again in.

What will the Reds do with pitchers out of options? (@transredsfan)

The list: Bauer, Garrett, Reed, Romano, Stephenson. Players added to mix: Josh Smith, Justin Shafer, Jose De Leon.
We know the safe players (Bauer, Garrett, Stephenson). Reed is one to keep an eye on. A shaky start to his MLB career was followed up by a promising 2019 that ended early due to injury. A lefty spot will be up for grabs in the pen and Reed will have every shot to take it.

De Leon has the talent. Once a top prospect, has struggled with injuries will look to bounce back with Cincinnati. Romano has had opportunities at times failing to earn his long-term spot. Smith and Shafer will have a leg up on non-roster invites for a spot, but neither is a sure bet for May 26th, 2020.

Reds have 10 outfielders. How do you predict it shakes out between DFA, Louisville, and Cincinnati? (@ObscureExReds)

Locks (if not traded): Winker, Senzel, Aquino, Ervin. Akiyama Right? Still too many? Plus Reds are rumored to add more?
Siri- AAA VanMeter- Bench bat an infield depth Schebler- Baltimore Orioles AAA Payton- Gone Martini- AAA Jankowski- Makes the team if others are traded/Organizational depth AAA

Bottom line, player(s) have to go. Too many chefs in the kitchen. Feels like a trade is around the corner.

I give you $100 to bet on the Reds Opening Day starter at SS, who are you putting money on? (@Daniel_Murphy93)

I am putting money on Freddy Galvis. I want to say Lindor, I really do. The number of outfielders on the Reds roster suggests a trade is coming, but I am going with my gut here.
SS depth needs to be added. The number of games played at SS on the 40 man:

Galvis: 768
Blandino: 11
Farmer: 1
Suarez: 183

Suarez moving back to SS seems unlikely. AAA doesn’t have MLB ready SS. Look for another non-roster invite like Jose Iglesias.

If Lindor is not added, SS and catcher both feel like bridge years. Jose Garcia (SS) and Tyler Stephenson have bright futures and are not too far away. India is getting closer while his position is blocked.

These mailbags will be posted at the beginning of each month so feel free to send in questions whenever and I will answer them.

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Cincinnati Reds

Mailbag: Senzel, Winker, Votto, and More

Time for an offseason mailbag to get your focus on what the Reds need to do th be better for 2021

Clay Snowden

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It’s been a while and we have all had a chance to process that Reds playoff performance. Yuck. However, it is time for offseason talk. Let’s get into the mailbag.

 

What are the Reds going to do at catcher? The Reds and pitchers seem to like Casali and Barnhart behind plate..

The Reds once again went with the duo of Casali and Tucker behind the plate in 2020. The results were underwhelming, but not miserable. Tucker is a finalist for a gold glove while hitting .204/.291/.388 and an OPS+ of 77. Casali hit .224/.366/.500 with an OPS+ of 126. However, we all want to see the exciting prospect, Tyler Stephenson, take his reign of the position. I expect exactly that next season. Having a veteran backing him up is important so I’d imagine Tucker plays that role as he is under contract while Casali will enter arbitration.

In terms of how the pitchers like Casali and Tucker, I think that just comes with time. I am sure once the pitchers get to work with Stephenson more, they will learn to pitch well to him.

 

If there is a DH in 2021, shouldn’t #19 fill that role and let Da Wink and (place RH bat here) platoon at 1st?

The only thing the Reds have now is time (between now, and next season). So, what is their excuse for not putting Senzel at 2B, and give him regular ABs? (This makes Votto the DH, and Moose 1B)

What’s the odds of moving Senzel to 2nd, Moose to 1st and Votto to DH.

Well this is my intake everybody has one with the Outfield I guess we’re not going to have a DH going forward so Jesse Winker needs to be traded along with Nick Senzel I definitely keep Shogo, and hopefully we can keep Castellanos and let’s go try to get a productive outfielder

 

I want to clump all these together because it’s pretty much all the same gist.  So, let’s breakdown what it could look like with and then without the DH.

WITH: Votto to DH, Moose to first, Senzel STAYS in center, second is open to add speed/OBP.

Explanation: Votto’s defense is terrible. His contract isn’t going anywhere, so put him at DH. He still has something left with the bat. When Moose signed he wasn’t signing on to play second for the duration of that contract. No way. Move him to first and the defense at first likely improves. Keep Senzel in Center. Injuries and swing changes have stunted the development of Senzel enough. Asking him to change back to second after 2 years of focusing on becoming a CF just feels like something they will not do. He hasn’t done any work (that we know of ) at second since he moved to CF.

Now for 2B. Bringing back the same team that barely sneaked into an expanded playoff (while maybe losing Bauer) seems like a bad idea. Changes have to be made. The Reds added plenty of HR power last offseason, now add a 2B that might be a better OBP guy. Speed and better baserunning would be welcomed as well. In theory, this could increase the defensive ability at second as well.

WITHOUT: Votto at first (with plenty of days off), Moose at 2B, Senzel in CF, Winker traded.

Explanation: Votto really doesn’t have anywhere else to go besides the bench. There is not an option at this point, when they play him he will be at first. Which leaves Moose at second. Again, not a thrilling defensive side of the infield, but Moose held his own at second but as he gets older his range will continue to drop. Senzel in CF for the same reason’s I listed above. Winker is traded. In this scenario, I am still looking to shake up the team from 2020. ( I am also assuming Castellanos is returning) An OF with Winker and Castellanos fielding would be far less than ideal. I really like Winker, but Shogo could be ready for a bigger role. Winker has trade value and could strengthen the team in other areas by moving him. If the Reds make a big trade like many fans are hoping for, they will have to move MLB talent. They do not have enough top-end prospects to trade. If they do move the top prospects, they will deplete their farm system because it lacks depth. Remember, to acquire top-end talent you have to trade high value. Prospects out of the top 5 usually aren’t considered too high by many other organizations. 

 

Goldstar or Skyline and Cut or Twirl

I have never even had Goldstar. No need to. Skyline fills my needs. Twirl

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Cincinnati Reds

Predicting the Final Stretch

Let’s take a look at what’s left for the Reds in the 2020 Regular Season and what they need to do to make it to the Playoffs

Clay Snowden

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September 18th, the weather is cooling down, football is starting (Bengals 0-2), every restaurant is putting pumpkin in everything, and the Reds have playoff hopes……wait what?! Yes, that’s right. The Reds are alive in September. Usually, these are the days of expanded roster players eating up innings as the season drags to the end. Not this year. Your Cincinnati Reds are playing for postseason baseball.

We all knew the Reds needed to get the four-game sweep of the Pirates. 4 games against one of the worst teams with so much on the line. Well, the Reds got it done. A clean sweep. This sweep, combined with the Cardinals losing a few games, leaves the Reds in sole possession of second place in the central. Now, I wouldn’t assume they will be there come September 27th. The Cardinals do have doubleheaders today (Friday) and next Friday and we know it can be hard to win twice in a day. They also play the Pirates (15-34), Royals (23-26), and Brewers (21-29) to finish the season. Favorable to say the least. The Reds have the White Sox (33-17), Brewers (21-29), and Twins (31-21).

The White Sox might be my favorite team to watch this year. A mixture of young studs and all-star vets, this team has a ton of offense. Tim Anderson might win back to back batting titles. I don’t want to sound like a southside fan, but let’s be honest, this team is likable. It’s going to be tough to win this series. They did recently clinch a playoff spot, but don’t confuse that with them “resting” starters. Reds pitching will have to be damn near flawless and the offense probably needs to give them 4 runs for a win. Prediction: Take 1 of 3 (Reds: 26-28)

We all know the Brewers. A team that has been solid the past few years lost some key players and Yelich is hitting .208. They aren’t what they thought they would be, but they won’t just fold. They will not give up on their postseason hopes until they are officially eliminated. The Reds are 4-3 vs the Brew Crew this year. An important 3 game series, the Reds could pick up ground here. We have seen how they have played the Brewers to a nearly .500 record this year, so I doubt a sweep happens. Prediction: Take 2 of 3. (Reds 28-29)

The Twins are right behind the White Sox. 1 and 2 in their division. However, I don’t find them as “scary” as the White Sox. Like the White Sox, the Twins are in the same division as the Indians, who Trevor Bauer pitched for before the Reds. Bauer will know some of these Batters and that alone could help him steal a win (assuming he pitches in the series.) The Reds will have their backs against the wall with their playoff hopes on the line. However, the Twins have a better lineup. Prediction: Take 1 of 3 (Reds 29-31).

*Keep in mind I do not have pitching matchups*

Will that be good enough to make the playoffs? Hard to tell. Many have said 30 wins gets you in. Maybe another team falls apart down the stretch. We are in the time of scoreboard watching. In that time of year where we stay up late to watch a west coast game and cheer hard for a Diamondbacks win (or some other “random” team). I love it. I love the intensity and game on the line feeling. Each win feels monumental.



Enjoy the ride.

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Cincinnati Reds

Dugout Mugs Chat with Pete Rose September 15 at 9 PM

Join our friends from Dugout Mugs Tuesday night as they chat with Pete Rose

Jeff

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Our friends from Dugout Mugs are having a chat with Reds legend Pete Rose tomorrow night, September 15th, at 9:00 PM EST. They will be promoting their new line of mugs which feature the Hit King (and look good, too) as well as holding an “ask me anything” type segment where fans are encouraged to submit questions here.

Though embroiled in controversy off the field, Rose was one of the best to ever play on the field. I’m not sure we will ever see anyone approach 4256 career hits mostly because I’m not sure we will ever see a player put together a 24-year career with a 162-game average of 194 hits. It’s not just longevity but also the consistency with which Rose played for the length that he played.

Most Reds fans would agree he is one of the best to ever wear a Reds uniform and you will have a chance to drop Rose a question that they will talk about on the Dugout Mugs Facebook live event. Make sure to also tune in at 9:00 PM!

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