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Cincinnati Reds

Pitching Opportunity Cost




© Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds are going to get the pitching this offseason. You may be wondering at that statement, considering some options that have been taken off the table, but let’s take a look at those no longer available to the Reds.

Matt Harvey

He is the pitcher who prompted my posting this. A lot of fans will be disappointed to see him move on from Cincinnati, but there are two reasons why this is good. The first reason is money. Now, I know what you’re thinking, baseball contracts and money are completely made up. I mean, Giancarlo Stanton makes, what, a billion dollars? Ok, it’s a bit less than that, but still a bit more than you and I will ever see in our lives. There is something to be said about value relative to production, though. My point here is, I would have been ok with the Reds bringing Harvey back, if the money made since. He is a 4.50 – 5.00 ERA-guy. Back of the rotation. Is that worth the $11-$14 million the Angels will pay him? In my opinion, no. The Reds have plenty of talent to fill the back of their rotation that costs far less. They need aces. Harvey isn’t an ace.

The second reason Harvey’s departure is good is this continues to show that the front office now has control. Would Bob Castellini really let Billy Hamilton AND Matt Harvey leave Cincinnati in the same offseason? We will never fully know that answer, but my guess is no. Dick Williams and Nick Krall looked at Harvey’s work in 2018, looked at his history of injuries and mediocre performances, and decided the number Los Angeles put on him was not worth matching/beating. Good on ya, front office, and good on ya Bob for letting them do the job you hired them for.

Lance Lynn

I wont be quite so wordy with these remaining names, as they don’t cause quite the stir that Harvey does, but Lynn was among the rabble of rumored reinforcements. Today he signed a three-year deal with the Texas Rangers. Lynn was a nice name, and some Reds fans will remember his tenure with the rival Cardinals, but he is not that pitcher anymore. Last year his ERA spiked to 4.77 and he tossed 30 innings less than 2017, despite appearing in just two-less games. projects Lynn to 138 innings with a 4.45 ERA. Not terrible, but if the Reds are looking to make a leap, that sort of performance has little chance of springing them forward. The Reds not allocating $10 million toward him made a good move.

Nathan Eovaldi

The last pitcher I’ll look at in this post got $17 million a year, on a four year deal. While age is not a factor with this 28-year old, $17 mil for, what would seem to be, one playoff performance is a bit steep. He had a 3.71 SIERA, last year, but the opportunity cost of a pitcher that doesn’t necessarily keep the ball on the ground and relied on a below-league average batting average on balls in play would have been tough. Plus, the Red Sox are not a team the Reds could win a bidding war against.

The thing that will make all of this feel great is if the Reds end up signing Dallas Keuchel. Then all of the savings outlined in this post will pay off.

Big changes are coming to Locked on Reds! Stay tuned for more details, and keep an eye on @jefffcarr and @lockedonReds on Twitter, as well as @lockedonreds_jeffcarr and @lockedonreds on Instagram!

Jeff has spent his entire life around sports. From playing baseball and golf in high school to traveling with college softball, volleyball, and men’s basketball teams as their media relations guy, sports have always been his focal point. He’s pumped to be bringing Reds content to the Locked on Sports Podcast Network!

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Cincinnati Reds

Should the Reds Sign or Trade Puig?

With the way he has struggled, and the Reds’ current pace, we may see Puig on the move before the trade deadline.

Clay Snowden



Yasiel Puig gave this team energy in December. The Cincinnati Reds haven’t had excitement in December in years. Acquired in a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, Puig came to town with a lot of buzz. You may remember him parading around town posting on social media about how much he loved Cincinnati and how excited he was to be a Red. I was thrilled. The talks of 30+ home runs and reaping the benefits of GABP had many fans following the Reds once again. Fast forward to mid- June and no one is too excited about the .213 hitter. The Reds’ chances at making the playoffs seems slim and it might be time to move some rentals. With an expiring contract the question is this: should the Reds look to trade Puig at the deadline?

One thing we all know about Puig is that he’s an emotional player and a big personality. This season, hitting and getting on base has been a struggle for the Wild Horse. A .213 average and a *squints* .256 on-base percentage are awful. 62 K’s to 13 walks is not pretty, either. Sitting at a -0.3 WAR you wonder what’s going on. 11 home runs and 9 stolen bases are positives. He has a strong arm in the outfield as well. While a walk off hit and “I am going to fight an entire Pirates’ team” were memorable moments of the season and, fun as hell, I am not sure if he’ll have a chance to make many more moments like these. So what teams are looking for a corner outfielder who is struggling and is maybe “a bit too much of a personality” for some? That might be the problem. The first corner outfielder off the market was Jay Bruce (name sounds familiar) to the Phillies. The amount of contending teams needing a corner outfield bat is not high and honestly there are simply better options available.

On paper, you would not see a larger return for a player with his stats. Look at his track record, a career .273 hitter that is no doubt a talented player. It might take an injury on a contending team to get his value up. A trade of “we lost a player and need to replace him” not a “let’s see if we can upgrade from our current player” type of trade. When the Reds traded Bruce to the Mets they took a flyer on an injured former high prospect Dilson Herrera. Sometimes taking a flyer on a prospect who might need a change of scenery can pay off big time. Someone did mention they could trade him and try to sign him back in the offseason. While true, I think the Reds would not trade him if they plan to sign him to an extension.

Signing Puig to an extension would pretty much set the outfield for a few years. Winker, Senzel (assuming he stays there), Puig. But with Taylor Trammell approaching quickly where would that put him? Ervin, Schebler, Sirri, Siani, and others could play a role in the future. Puig is not going to be cheap, either. What he does from here on out will give us a better idea but at only 28 years old he has many years left in him. Plenty of expiring contracts will need to be resigned and, well, the Reds don’t have Yankees-type money.

The trade deadline is coming soon and the Reds making the playoffs is very unlikely. Look for the front office to move some players for prospects and for Puig to be a prominently rumored player on the move.

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Cincinnati Reds

Locked On Reds – 6/13/2019 Reds Split with Indians

Thursday’s episode is up!





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Cincinnati Reds

Scooter Get Off The Pot

Scooter Gennett is a dude who will be hard to say goodbye to. The team’s current makeup, however, makes it seem that is coming, sooner rather than later.

Dave Pemberton



© David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Jeff has brought up a lot of talk about who we as fans would hate to see get traded this year. For me there is only one answer. Scooter Gennett.

Without a doubt it has to be him. While I completely understand if they do from a financial and bigger picture stand point, it will eat my soul. I haven’t seen a Cincinnati native this well liked since Barry Larkin.

Everything about him including his name screams a Cincinnati Reds ballplayer. You can see it in his play, character, leadership, and communication that this guy LOVES playing for his home town team. The man is already a Reds legend after smacking 4 home runs in a game. A game that, by sheer luck, I was able to witness. It was, by far, the best moment I have ever witnessed in person at GABP. He put up the best numbers of his career in 2017 only to follow it up with a better season as an All Star in 2018.

Scooter has made it clear he would like to remain a Red and loves this organization. I was really hoping the Reds would extend him to a short term deal last season after an incredible season that almost saw him win a batting title. I even tried starting the #ScooterGetOffThePot trend. Instead, like many things in recent memory with this team, good things go wrong quickly. He suffered the worst injury of his career with a severe strained groin.

Making the case for extending him even more difficult has been the off-the-wall performance by Derek Dietrich. Another free agent find who has been as wildly entertaining and likable. Dietrich has already made himself the face of the team this year with his kid like swagger for the game. Dietrich was just named second basemen of the month of May by the MLB. Per Stats by STATS Dietrich played in 55 games with a .706 slugging percentage. The only other player in baseball history to match that in there first 55 game with an organization was a HOF 2B Rogers Hornsby. The Reds also have control of Dietrich’s contract next season being an arbitration year. If you remove Dietrich from the equation it’s not any better.

Jose Iglesias is a must start for this team, currently, at shortstop. Iglesias is the best defensive infielder the team has had since Brandon Phillips. Iglesias also currently holds the highest batting average on the team nearly two months into the season. Meaning Jose Peraza has no place left to play but filling in for guys on their day off. Peraza also seems like a guy that, come next season, will more than likely be the starting shortstop simply because of his age and salary.

The Reds have their current center fielder, Nick Senzel, who has been the spark to this offense since coming up to the big leagues. The Reds have averaged nearly 2 more runs a game since Senzel has been playing for the team. Senzel definently stands a chance to be Rookie of the Year. Most importantly he seems to a guaranteed core player of this team’s foreseeable future. Senzel is a player who could, hypothetically, be the Reds starting second baseman for 2020. Plus they have Johnathan India, last year’s first round pick, quickly making his way up through the minors. He could potentially take that spot if not next season the following year.

None of this leads me to believe Scooter will be playing for this team next year. He is the perfect trading chip if they are looking to have a sale at the trade deadline or add a missing piece as well. I think what I enjoy about Scooter Gennett most is his GRIT. There is no denying the dude has GRIT. Something many of the players on this team currently do not have. More than anything that is why I will hate if he is traded.

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