Cincinnati Reds
Rebuild Recap Part 1: And It Begins
It is May 7th and our beloved Redlegs sit at 8-26 on the season, tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the worst record in baseball. It’s hard for me to get excited about the actual games during another lost season and I often find myself wondering how much longer we will have to wait to see a competitive Reds team. A lot of time has passed and the club has made a number of moves, but are they the right ones? Have the Reds front office shown the competency to bring an end to this rebuild and start winning? In this three-part series I hope to shed some light on who the Reds have acquired and determine if they will be on the next competitive Reds team and try to forecast when the Reds might start winning again.
The road to recovery starts with admitting that you have a problem in the first place. If you ask me, the Reds admitted this on Sunday, July 26, 2015, the day the Reds traded Johnny Cueto to the Royals for starting pitchers Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed. What a sad day in Reds history. I will always have fond memories of Johnny pressed up against the backstop at GABP kicking any Cardinal within five feet of him. The results of that trade are not looking great. John Lamb is no longer in the organization, Cody Reed can’t seem to figure things out at the Major League level (or at AAA for that matter), and Brandon Finnegan has had injury issues and has been ineffective this season (8.27 ERA, -0.8 WAR). I think that Finnegan could still have success as a starter. He has three pitches that he throws pretty well (four-seam fastball, sinker, and slider), and his change up is still a work in progress. Finnegan could be a four or five starter on the next competitive team if he can develop his change up and limit the amount of fly balls he allows.
Our next stop brings us to the 2015 trade deadline, also known as the day the Reds traded Mike Leake to the San Francisco Giants for minor league pitcher Keury Mella and IF/OF Adam Duvall. Mella was not a super prospect when acquired in this trade, but was one of the best prospects that the Giants had to offer from their depleted minor league system. He got a cup of coffee with the Reds last year in a September call up and is currently in AA Pensacola. He has a 0.84 ERA over six starts with an impressive 32 strike outs compared to just six walks. Last year the Reds called up both Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle straight from AA and I don’t see why they can’t do the same with Mella. He could be a very interesting piece in the rotation if he can get batters out in the majors the way he does in the minors. We should all be familiar with the other player that the Reds acquired in that trade. Adam Duvall has been the Reds primary starter in left field since acquired in 2015 and was the Reds’ lone representative in the All Star game in 2016. He has shown impressive power and solid defense in left, but has really struggled as of late. This year he is the owner of a .192 batting average to go along with a .606 OPS. At this point in his career I think that he is a decent fourth outfielder at best and should not take playing time away from Jesse Winker or Scott Schebler. If the Reds are truly committed to the rebuild then they need to move on from Duvall starting everyday and let the younger, more talented hitters play. I don’t like his odds of contributing to the next competitive Reds team considering his age (30 in September) and declining bat.
The 2015 season mercifully came to an end and the Reds looked to the offseason to unload some more of their players. On December 16, 2015 the Reds sent third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox in a three team trade that also involved the Dodgers. They received infielder Jose Peraza, infielder Brandon Dixon, and outfielder Scott Schebler in return. Peraza has had mixed results during his time with the major league club. He finished the 2016 season with a .324 batting average over 256 plate appearances, had a dismal 2017 season that saw him benched at second base in favor of Scooter Gennett, and has showed signs of promise this year at short. After an 0-12 start to the season Peraza is now hitting a respectable .293 with an OPS of .713. He has also made strides on defense at shortstop and I can see him getting better and better each game. This would be huge if Jose can pan out and be an average shortstop at the major league level. It will allow Eugenio Suarez to remain at third and Nick Senzel to focus solely on playing second. I definitely think Jose can be a starter on the next great Reds team if he can continue to develop his glove at short. Scott Schebler was not thought of a as a highly touted prospect in this trade but has offered more value than expected. He has a lot of power potential and has hit for average when healthy. He got off to a great start last year but suffered a bruised rotator cuff on June 3rd which sapped him of some power until he finally went on the DL near the end of July. He still went on to hit a very quiet 30 home runs and ranked near the top in hard hit percentage amongst all outfielders last year. After a brief stint on the DL this year, Scott is hitting a solid .273 and is still hitting the ball incredibly hard. He is another player that I can see contributing to the next winning Reds team. Brandon Dixon was a throw in player that didn’t even crack the dodgers top 30 prospect list at the time. He is currently hitting .329 at AAA and has the chance to be a decent bat off the bench as well as a reliable utility infielder. Meanwhile Todd Fraizer has played for three different teams and hasn’t finished a season batting above .225. This trade is starting to look better and better as time goes by.
We will follow up a really good trade the Reds pulled off by taking a look at a really bad one. The club traded closer Aroldis Chapman to the New York Yankees on December 28, 2015 for four players, three of which are no longer in the Reds organization. The only one left, Rookie Davis, is on the 60 day DL after having hip surgery this past offseason and isn’t expected to be back until after the All Star break. Davis posted an 8.63 ERA in six starts last year for the Reds and looked in over his head. I am willing to hold out judgment until after he returns from injury but I do not expect him to be a top five starting pitcher in the future. I think the bullpen might be his best bet and even that might be a stretch. What hurts the most about this trade is that the Yankees turned around and traded him to the Cubs for much more than what the Reds got in return. The Yankees received uber infield prospect Gleyber Torres, reliever Adam Warren, and two other players from the Cubs in exchange for Chapman. There were reports that the Reds had a deal worked out with the Dodgers prior to the Fraizer trade but it fell through when MLB learned of a domestic dispute that Chapman had earlier in the offseason. This resulted in a 30 game suspension and diminished Chapman’s value on the trade market. If they would have waited until after the suspension they could have received much more from a team still in the playoff hunt and desperate for a shut down closer to bolster their bullpen.
We will leave it there for part one. So far the Reds have acquired some players capable of helping the Reds long term, and many who are no longer in the organization. In part two we will look at events that occurred starting with the 2016 amateur draft and bring us right up to the start of the 2018 season. Part three will focus on when the Reds might start winning again and even question their commitment to the rebuilding plan.
Cincinnati Reds
How To Rebuild The Cincinnati Reds Fan Base
They haven’t won a playoff series since 1995. They haven’t won a World Series since 1990. Not many kids these days are seriously excited about the Reds. Not many kids these days want to go to the ballpark to watch at best a slightly above mediocre team. For years it had always been Mike Brown doesn’t care about winning a Super Bowl. All he cares about is making money. That is the sentiment now for most of the die hard fan base now for the Reds ownership.
Over the past few weeks it’s been a great moment to be a fan of the Cincinnati Bengals. As a die hard fan who grew up during the lost decade of the 90’s when the Bengals became the Bungals it brings me joy to see Bengals fans coming out of the woodwork to join the bandwagon. I remember being one of only a few kids that was brave enough to wear a Bengals Starter jacket to school. I remember being one of a few kids that didn’t have to be begged in order to go to a Bengals game. The 90’s were dark times us Bengals fans for a franchise that seemed to have no direction or possibility of being a serious contender.
How the tables have turned. The Reds haven’t been to a playoff (excluding the 2020 COVID season) since 2013. They haven’t won a playoff series since 1995. They haven’t won a World Series since 1990. Not many kids these days are seriously excited about the Reds. Not many kids these days want to go to the ballpark to watch at best a slightly above mediocre team. For years it had always been Mike Brown doesn’t care about winning a Super Bowl. All he cares about is making money. That is the sentiment now for most of the die hard fan base now for the Reds ownership. #SellTheTeamBob is rallying call for our current die hard fan base. This is what happens when you lose a generation of fans. All you have to rely on is die hards and nostalgia to keep people coming to the ballpark.
How do you rebuild the fan base? For starters, a plan. Dick Williams had a very transparent plan of adding the puzzle pieces to turn this team back into a contender. Then in 2020 right as the playoff contention window opened, COVID smashed the window on our hand and caused ownership to hide behind the bottom line. Dick Williams saw the writing on the wall and left. The plan now for the future of this franchise now seems to be stay the course and run the franchise based on the bottom line. That’s not a plan, that’s a joke. The Reds were maybe one or two parts away from being a contender at the end of 2020. Either through free agancy or trades the Reds could have been a serious contender last season as well as good chunk of this decade. Instead now it seems we are destined for third place with our mediocre roster this year. The ownership needs to make up it’s mind on winning a World Series and fast. Are we going to do it the traditional way of piecing together players we’ve developed, trades, and free agency? Or are we going to go full Tampa Bay Rays and put all of our eggs into player development building and trade away everyone else? Either way I don’t care because it gives a sense of direction to the fan base. Right now they seem to have us fans in a sense of being lost at sea with nothing on the horizon. At some point even the most faithful will give up hope. The simplest answer to rebuilding your fan base is winning. Winning cures all. The Bengals have made that crystal clear.
Next the Reds have to give easier access to watching the games on television. Probably the most common complaint among Reds fans is how difficult it has become to watch the games. Most of us from the younger generation have cut the cord. Using services such as Hulu Live, YouTube TV, or Sling to name the more popular streaming services for live sports. Every single one of them lost Bally Sports this past season. Even the actual Bally Sports app for streaming was not the greatest because of a poor interface and constant issues. MLB TV, MLB’s counter to the NFL Sunday Ticket, has the most outrageous blackout maps for local teams. Just another way they’ve blocked fans from enjoying and spreading their sport. There is talk of the MLB making it a la carte so you could purchase your franchises games to watch. The Reds and Major League Baseball need to figure out how to make this possible ASAP. There are not many people going the extra steps in order to watch an average baseball team right now.
Ownership must get back to their old ways of fan engagement. Some of which was out of their control because of COVID. These past two years of Redsfest being cancelled has been difficult. It doesn’t matter what the team looks like because Redsfest always gets you pumped about being a Reds fan. Reds Caravan was also a great way to engage the community where they lived by visiting the entire Reds nation with bus stops, interviews, and autograph signings. I am a season ticket holder and in it’s absence they provided us with goody bag of stuff in the absence of Redsfest. This years goody bad looked like the clearance rack the day after Christmas. Kind of a slap in the face for us loyal fans. If they’re smart they go above and beyond to bring as much interaction as possible to those who attend Redsfest and the Reds Caravan this year. Another huge even I think many people forgot about was Reds Rockin’ 150. In 2019 to celebrate it’s 150 birthday ownership hosted the event at no cost to the fans. Anyone was welcome. They had 3 bands in concert. Huey helicopters were flown onto the field. Nearly all the players and coaches were present for fan activities throughout the ballpark that evening. This needs to become an annual event mid season. It shows commitment to the fans that no matter how well our record is that were dedicated to making you apart of the experience as much as possible.
There are the changes needed on a macro level from the MLB in order help get fans excited about baseball. One of the biggest has to be fixing the inequality among franchises payrolls. Part of the solution is giving baseball something it has desperately needed in a salary cap not just a luxary tax. The second part of that solution would be a salary minimum. If this could slowly be implemented over the next 10-15 years to mirror that of other major professional sports it would take away ownership’s excuse for the bottom line being the key reason for owning the team. It does seem as though the MLB Players Association wants this to be addressed in the current labor dispute. The disparity payroll has destroyed baseball. There are players earning a higher yearly salary then some teams entire payroll. The incentive for these small market teams to own the team is strictly financial. Winning is an after thought. Tanking is transparently encouraged. There is no reason that small market teams should have a small 3-4 year window if they’re lucky once a decade in order to put a competitive team on the field. Otherwise at least a third of the league is guaranteed to be tanking before the seasons stated.
Something else I would love to see the Reds celebrate is their actual fan base. The Bengals have done a tremendous job this season highlighting their die hard fan base. Characters like Bengal Jim, Tony Da Tiger, and Bengals Captain to name just a few. They give out a fan of the year award. There fans are celebrated on social media as well news media. You see just a fraction of that with the Reds fan base. Probably because we’ve grown so accustomed to losing that their isn’t much to celebrate. It would be nice to see ownership commit to celebrating their fans who’ve continued to show up and root for the Redlegs during these dark ages.
Finally they have to get creative with getting fans to come to the stadium. 2020 there were no fans allowed. 2021 was an odd year for fans. We started the first two months of the season with a 30% cap on attendance. However things will probably continue to trend down for attendance if Opening Day doesn’t start on time because of the labor strike. Regardless of which side your on, players or owners, the fans are always the ones who lose. The fans had no problem showing their disdain during the shortened 1995 season when play resumed after they stopped playing mid season in 1994. The result was a 25% drop in attendance league wide. Fans find it hard to sympathize when it’s millionaires versus billionaires. Combine that with ownership that has shown no signs of taking winning seriously, things don’t look good for drawing fans down to the ballpark. They need to be aggressive by offering discount days and free tickets to fans. Maybe a five games of a steep discount on concessions and merchandise. Perhaps even a $10-20 credit with the purchase of a ticket. The Atlanta Falcons ownership did this with their concessions and found they made even more off concessions since people were willing to buy more with the money saved. Another five games in which for every adult ticket purchased two kids 18 and younger get in free to certain sections in the ballpark. The Baltimore Orioles started doing this a few years ago. Probably because they knew people weren’t gonna show up anyway but those free tickets fill seats and the savings given to the fans are probably put towards concessions and merchandise.
I always used to tell people we were more likely to see multiple Reds World Series victories than I would ever see a Bengals Super Bowl win in my lifetime. I sadly believe we’ll be lucky to see a World Series from this franchise for the foreseeable future unless ownership decides to making winning their number one priority.
Cincinnati Reds
The Positives for the Cincinnati Reds of Keeping Nick Senzel in AAA
The Cincinnati Reds are telling us it is time to change our expectations of Nick Senzel, writes Clay Snowden
Things have not gone as planned. Nick Senzel was selected with the second overall pick in 2016 and was praised for his plus hit tool. Fast forward to now and Senzel is an often injured player who currently sits in AAA Louisville. I am not sure if I remember a player with as much frustration attached to his name, maybe Billy Hamilton? I am not writing Senzel off as a bust just yet, but things are trending that way. With him in AAA what should we make of this?
I think it is time to change expectations. Once thought of as a potential building block of the Reds rebuild and future, Senzel has proven he cannot be that. Injury after injury has limited his time on the field, but even when he has played he has not been very good. Definitely not second overall good. Hell he’s a negative WAR player. He’s still young(ish) and has not had enough at bats to really determine what he will become. If I was a betting man, I would bet he wouldn’t reach the potential we once though he had. A lot of the blame falls on….well….bad luck. Injuries stunting development is not something I like to blame on players. The organization has not exact made it easy on him. Changing his positions several times including a drastic change to center to fit team needs was not easy on Senzel. Changing his swing/stance during his rookie season was crazy. And here we sit on August 16th, 2021 with Senzel playing for the Louisville Bats. You can debate if it’s the right move or not, but its where we are. What positives can come from this move?
Let’s go back to expectations. It’s time to shift from all star build block to useful utility player. We can be mad about it all we want, but it won’t change anything. My hope is Senzel is used all over the field in Louisville. He’s played some SS down there which makes things interesting. We know he can play second, third, and center. Adding short to that resume makes him a very useful piece. If the plan is to transition him to a utility role, he could get plenty of starts at multiple positions, cover pinch running, defensive subs late in the game, and be a back up shortstop (especially in 2022).
Bottom line, Senzel needs a role and they need to stick to that role. I think the utility role with more playing time than an average bench player is the best role for him. No, it’s not the role we all expected when the Reds selected him in 2016, but it could be the best role for him and the Reds going forward.
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds July Reds Mailbag
The Cincinnati Reds are battling to retake first place in the NL Central, here in July, and questions abound. Clay has some answers for you!
Here we are, a few days before the deadline and more than a couple spots outside of first place. The Reds are looking less and less like a playoff team, and have yet to make a move (7/27/21 2:24 pm). Let’s get to some questions.
Miguel Rojas and Yimi Garcia for Allen Cerda and Alejo Lopez?
These are the caliber of players the Reds seem likely to get. I think World Series contenders are more likely to overpay for some all star caliber players than the scratching and hoping for playoff Reds are. I do think the Reds will get someone, but not a splash move. I would love to add Rojas and Garcia. However, I think the Marlins say no to this. Lopez projects to a bench bat and Cerda has been good, but not a high profile prospect. I think the Marlins could get someone in the 8-11 range plus another top 30 from a team. OF course, each team ranking is different, but you get what I am saying.
What do you see in the future for Castllanos? Do you think the Reds will sign him to another deal?
I hate to say this, but I do not think Castellanos will be a Red next season. His agent, Scott Boras, is tough. An he loves to have his clients test the market. Castellanos will opt out, as he is worth more than the $16 million option. Once he hits free agency, another team will outbid the Reds. This isn’t me being some grouch, this is me being realistic. One of the best bats hits free agency at age 29, he will be looking to get locked up to a big money/term deal into his mid-late 30s.
Will Alejo Lopez get a chance? Does Jose Barrero get called up? What about Phil Diehl?
Lopez has been mostly up and down from Louisville and Cincinnati, and has received a spot start here and there but mostly has been a bench bat. I’d like to see him play some third and give Suarez time on the bench. However, that doesn’t seem likely. To me Diehl is a classic example of a AAAA player. I don’t expect him to come up and make an impact but with the way he’s pitched in Louisville and the current state of the bullpen, he’s earned a shot.
Jose Barrero has been outstanding this season. He was recently moved to the number 20 overall prospect for Baseball America. The deadline will determine the rest of his season. If a SS is acquired, he will stay down. If not I think he would be their “deadline addition”. For the record, I would keep him in AAA the rest of the year and go acquire a SS. Bringing him up as the answer is a lot of pressure. Also, he has less than 250 at bats above single A. If his lack of experience was the issue less than 12 months ago, 245 at bats isn’t a huge amount to prove otherwise. But the way he’s hitting…I would understand if he’s brought up.
What should the Reds do with Shogo? Does he stay or go?
He stays. Too much money with another year left for an older outfielder with zero (proven at MLB level) hit tool. I doubt there’s much of a market for that. Maybe he “needs more playing time” to get comfortable, but he has done nothing to earn that. I love Shogo, but it’s getting harder to justify playing him. Keep him on the roster for a defensive replacement/pinch runner.
Will the Reds do anything to strengthen the bullpen? Will the starters be stretched out to go 7 innings?
I think the Reds will add a bullpen arm. I don’t think it will be some all star closer, but an above average guy. Givens/Bard from Colorado come to mind.
The issue with a lot of these starters isn’t David Bell *not* letting them go deep, but instead, they are throwing too many pitches. It’s on them more than Bell most of the time. We need to advance past thinking every starter should go 7 or 7 plus innings.