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Cincinnati Reds

The necessity of avoiding short-sighted decisions

Jacob Rude

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Winning solves everything.

It’s an adage that I strongly believe in and one that can be put applied to the Cincinnati Reds.

Twenty-one games into the season, everything was awful. Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler had missed a noteworthy amount of time, the Reds were 3-18, Bryan Price had been fired, Nick Senzel was still in Triple-A, fan interest was at an all-time low and the front office had serious questions that needed to be answered.

Fast forward to present-day and the Reds are 39-51 and are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Take any sample size you’d like after the 3-18 start and you’ll see the Reds are a much-improved team, one that is above .500 and one that more resembles the version that fans expected to see.

The Reds are fun again, maybe for the first extended time during the rebuild, and finally, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a contending Reds team in the future.

With that said, this version of the Reds is not a contender. As much fun as the team is, as vastly improved as they are and how promising they project to be, there are still plenty of holes to fill.

The rebuild is not done. It is in the final stages. It’s rounding the final curve and heading down the front stretch. The Reds must finish out the process rather than start patting themselves on the back. They cannot afford to be shortsighted.

There have been a couple red flags that have arisen as the Reds have begun streaking, starting at the top of the clubhouse with interim manager Jim Riggleman.

It’s easy to look at Riggleman and marvel at the job he’s done. Under him, the Reds are playing .500 baseball and have vastly improved both on the mound and at the plate. They look like a completely different team when you compare it to the one that played the first month of the season.

Suggestions of removing the interim tag from his title were premature at best and reckless at worst. Nothing Riggleman has done would indicate he’s demonstrably better than either Price or another candidate available. While he’s a generally good game manager, his fixation with bunting, for example, has cost the Reds more often than not.

More than just Riggleman himself, though, the process of removing the interim tag from Riggleman’s title would be a remarkably short-sighted move. It’s imperative the Reds go through a wide-spread search for a manager that should also include Riggleman. An added byproduct of the Reds’ recent streak of success is that more successful managers may find the Reds’ job more appealing. The franchise is on the last legs of the rebuild and is an appealing team.

Joe Girardi, for example, was a name tossed around mostly by fans as a potential hire last off-season. At the time, it seemed unlikely Girardi would go from a title contending team to one in a rebuild. Now, this upcoming winter, would a manager like Girardi more strongly consider a spot with the Reds when they go through the searching process?

If, after that process, Riggleman is the best candidate available, then that’s one thing. But skipping that process altogether would be a terrible decision.

In the same vein, the trade deadline will be a critical stretch for the Reds. While the Reds have become fun again, their horrid start to the season means that they’re still miles away from playoff contention. Because of that, it’s equally important for the Reds not to grow too fond of the assets they have and ensure they make the best move for the team to win next season and not next month.

Take Scooter Gennett, for example. He’s an All-Star second baseman who the Reds acquired for essentially nothing as a waiver claim. He’s a fan favorite who had one of the greatest moments in Reds history last season with his four-homer game.

He should be traded for a ton of reasons. His stock will never be higher. After spending much of the last year assuming he would regress this season, it appears Gennett might legitimately be one of the best offensive second basemen in the league. There’s a market for that. A large one.

More than that, second base is, by far, the deepest position in the Reds’ organization. The team moved star prospect Nick Senzel to second while fellow top-five prospect Shed Long is also a second baseman. Alex Blandino and Dilson Herrera are both on the active roster and are second basemen.

Moving Gennett could net the Reds are large return and fill one of the handful of holes left to make the Reds a contending team.

On the fringe side of the trade market, outfielders Adam Duvall and Billy Hamilton should be shopped heavily. Duvall should have been dealt two years ago in his All-Star season and his value has plummeted since. At this point, he probably has value as a bench bat and would open up the path for consistent playing time from Jesse Winker.

Hamilton, meanwhile, has been red-hot over nearly the last month. On one hand, you could convince yourself that he’s turning it around and that he’s finally figured it out. Or, it’s another hot spell Hamilton has been prone to in his inconsistent career. Instead of being sucked in once more, the Reds should capitalize on the hot streak and find a landing spot for Hamilton.

Players like Raisel Iglesias, Scott Schebler, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez and really anyone on the roster could be had for the right price. Iglesias, in particular, could bring in such a massive haul that it could bring the finishing pieces to the rebuild.

The Reds are on the brink of ending the rebuild. They’ll have to make a handful of critical moves that could morph this team out of the cellar and into a contender.

Jacob is a journalist and lifelong sports fan across the board. From soccer to basketball to baseball, he enjoys watching his favorite team’s break his heart. After finishing up at Indiana University and majoring in journalism, Jacob is now a sports editor during the day and an online journalist at night.

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Jeff Brantley talks Bell, new pitching coach Derek Johnson and more

James Rapien

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I discuss one free agent pitcher that should be on the Reds’ radar, plus Jeff Brantley joins me to discuss the hiring of manager David Bell and pitching coach Derek Johnson on today’s podcast. Listen and subscribe below.

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Cincinnati Reds

Bell hiring finally rings in a new century for Reds

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The innovators are often criticized. It’ll never work, they’re told.

Wind the baseball tighter to allow more home runs? Ty Cobb hated it because it took the science out of the game. But Babe Ruth loved it, so did the fans and the sport grew. Show sports on a cable channel for 24 hours a day? Nobody will watch that. The Internet? It’s just a fad.

The Cincinnati Reds love their tradition, so it’s no surprise that it has taken them this long to embrace the modern game. This is baseball, not math, the Reds have said for the past 20 years while others have proven that math matters. Not the kind of math of counting stats that says he’s a good hitter or pitcher because he has this many of this or that. But the kind of math that looks at percentages and formulas that aren’t easy to understand. They call it analytics and it makes old-timers (mostly people over 30) roll their eyes from man caves to the broadcast booth. A lack of understanding is not a reason to dismiss an idea. It’s a reason to learn before you judge.

The Reds have finally been convinced that their way doesn’t work anymore. They’ve stopped rolling their eyes, let go of the eye-rollers who blocked progress and hired a manager with vision. Those old ways once worked for the Reds — though not as much as we’d like to think— when all teams did it that way. But when smarter ways to build a good team passed them by, so did their ability to win.

To be fair, the Reds have been moving in this direction, the one Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s began following in 1997. The Reds have an analytics director and three people they call data scientists. The problem is that too much of that information was stopping at the field manager’s door. The guys running the dugout weren’t doing enough with it. They were baseball men, after all, and they only trusted their eyes and tradition more than a spreadsheet or report they probably didn’t take the time to understand.

And the front office allowed the dysfunction to fester through Baker, Price and Riggleman. Finally, there is reason to believe that the Cincinnati Reds aren’t stuck in the 20th century.

There’s a new guy in the dugout named David Bell who has caught this vision since he left the Reds organization after managing in the minors. He’s worked for the Cardinals, Cubs and Giants, teams that have obviously done a lot more right in recent seasons than the Reds have. Yes, Bell had to leave the Reds to learn a better way.

When Bell was introduced as the new manager he said things that were an indictment of the front office and on-field dysfunction. He talked about how all of the information had to be considered from upstairs to downstairs. He asked for an offseason office upstairs and will live in Cincinnati in the offseason.

He has this crazy idea that the front office and manager’s office ought to actually work together and have shared leadership instead of a top-down model that didn’t work. Remember Jesse Winker from odd-man out to everyday right fielder in a 24-hour period? Then there was the indecision about what to do with Homer Bailey. Who’s in charge we wondered? Does this team have a strategy?

Bell surely interviewed the Reds as much as they interviewed him. He discovered the lack of communication between the front office and the dugout. He must have told Dick Williams he’s ready to listen to them, and it appears they’re ready to listen to him.

This is good for the Reds. A true strategy that teaches on-field fundamentals and has an appreciation for complex data will have a chance to develop and flourish. Players will come up from the minors and maybe not sit the bench. They won’t hear a different message from the one they’ve heard in the minors.

Now this is going to take some getting used to if you don’t buy all this analytics mumbo-jumbo. The in-game moves and strategies won’t be what your used to:

  • The lineup might not be predictable.
  • You won’t agree with a lot of pitching changes.
  • You’ll wonder why Winker isn’t playing tonight.
  • Why not bunt in this situation, you’ll wonder.

And the offseason moves:

  • Why did they sign that guy?
  • Why didn’t they sign that guy?
  • Who are these all these prospects we just got for a proven player?
  • Those aren’t the pitchers we should have gone after?

Not every move will work, but you have to play the percentages. Not every move (not even close to it) worked the old way. It’s a new world in Cincinnati. If you still have a Big Red Machine hangover, get over it. Rose, Morgan, Bench and Perez would have been free-agent eligible by 1975. In today’s market, there is no way all of them (if any of them) would have been teammates that deep into their careers.

The Reds can’t compete with big payrolls. They must copy what other small-market teams like the A’s are doing. It’s the only way to have more good seasons than bad ones like the A’s have. And maybe they’ll find that year like they did in 1990.

That’s the promise of the Bell hiring. Not because he’s necessarily destined to be a great manager but because his hiring has signaled a fundamental change in the way the Reds intend to do business. Maybe Bell will preside over the next playoff team, maybe he won’t.

But at least we can finally welcome the Reds to the 21st century.

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Cincinnati Reds

Reds Tab Johnson to Lead Pitching Renaissance

Jeffery Carr

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© Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The second big move of the offseason for the Cincinnati Reds came last night with the signing of a new pitching coach, Derek Johnson. The Reds nabbed him from Milwaukee, a team that largely outperformed expectations to finish 6th in pitching.

Johnson has been the Brewers pitching coach for four seasons and is highly regarded by the league and pretty much everyone. Those who are around the Reds organization are 100% on board with this hire.

His departure, while the third Milwaukee assistant to jump ship, drew the ire of those around the Brewers organization.

Sometimes reactions are evidence enough, but let’s look into Derek Johnson. He was a college pitcher, but never toed the rubber in the major leagues. Doesn’t seem to have hindered him in the coaching arena, where he has a ton of experience. He began coaching in college, and even coached at Vanderbilt for a bit, who happen to be pretty good at baseball. He even coached Sonny Gray, there, who is a possible target to bring into the Reds rotation.

His foray into professional coaching began with coordinating the Cubs minor league pitchers 2013 through 2014. That’s when the Brewers hired him onto their pitching coaching staff. Once with the Brew Crew, he immediately got to the developing of guys like Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, Jhoulys Chacin, and other overachievers. Heck, the guy wrote the book on pitching, back in 2012 (see The Complete Guide to Pitching).

Another key factor, which has been the theme pf the Reds offseason, is he’s a coach who embraces analytics. He doesn’t go only analytics, though, and tends to use what will best aid a pitcher, without over-informing him. One thing that has been prevalent in interviews with David Bell is that there is a happy medium with analytics, and Johnson is on board with that.

Johnson also had a quote, in an interview with the Journal Sentinel, that I found interesting, and it just continues to excite me about this hire. On the question of if his personality is that of anonymity, he said this:

“I would say for sure. First off, this game is never about a coach. It’s always about the players. Players play, coaches coach. For me, we’re grinding away in the bullpens and we’re working on stuff in the games and trying to figure out what to do next and, really, that’s my main job and my main focus. The interviews, and all that kind of stuff, that’s for the players.”

I found this to be of interest, too:

Journal Sentinel: “The sentiment outside the organization coming into the season was that Brewers needed to sign or trade for 1-2 established starters in order to contend. Instead, Jhoulys Chacín was signed to a smaller, shorter deal and you’ve relied on your holdovers to fill out the rotation with Jimmy Nelson out and Chase Anderson and Zach Davies not pitching as well as they did in 2017. How satisfying is that?”

Derek Johnson: “I’m very proud of them. I’m very proud of how they’ve gone out and competed and stuck with some of the things that we’ve done in the bullpen and where we’re trying to go. I think a big part of my personality and the way I think of things is, ‘These are our guys – they’re Brewers.’ And right now, the other guys who aren’t Brewers, they don’t concern me at all, and they won’t until they become Brewers. That’s above my pay grade. What I have are 13 guys and we’re doing the best we can with them. They’re our guys right now, and I like it that way. I don’t want for anything else. It’s what we are and who we have and these are the guys that are putting the uniform on every day. I think it’s really important and honorable for us to think of it that way. I don’t care about other pitchers; I care about them.”

From what I gather from all the sources and people I’ve read, this is a good hire. Welcome to Cincinnati, Derek Johnson.

Follow @jefffcarr and @lockedonReds on Twitter for more content.

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