Winning solves everything.
It’s an adage that I strongly believe in and one that can be put applied to the Cincinnati Reds.
Twenty-one games into the season, everything was awful. Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler had missed a noteworthy amount of time, the Reds were 3-18, Bryan Price had been fired, Nick Senzel was still in Triple-A, fan interest was at an all-time low and the front office had serious questions that needed to be answered.
Fast forward to present-day and the Reds are 39-51 and are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Take any sample size you’d like after the 3-18 start and you’ll see the Reds are a much-improved team, one that is above .500 and one that more resembles the version that fans expected to see.
The Reds are fun again, maybe for the first extended time during the rebuild, and finally, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a contending Reds team in the future.
With that said, this version of the Reds is not a contender. As much fun as the team is, as vastly improved as they are and how promising they project to be, there are still plenty of holes to fill.
The rebuild is not done. It is in the final stages. It’s rounding the final curve and heading down the front stretch. The Reds must finish out the process rather than start patting themselves on the back. They cannot afford to be shortsighted.
There have been a couple red flags that have arisen as the Reds have begun streaking, starting at the top of the clubhouse with interim manager Jim Riggleman.
It’s easy to look at Riggleman and marvel at the job he’s done. Under him, the Reds are playing .500 baseball and have vastly improved both on the mound and at the plate. They look like a completely different team when you compare it to the one that played the first month of the season.
Suggestions of removing the interim tag from his title were premature at best and reckless at worst. Nothing Riggleman has done would indicate he’s demonstrably better than either Price or another candidate available. While he’s a generally good game manager, his fixation with bunting, for example, has cost the Reds more often than not.
More than just Riggleman himself, though, the process of removing the interim tag from Riggleman’s title would be a remarkably short-sighted move. It’s imperative the Reds go through a wide-spread search for a manager that should also include Riggleman. An added byproduct of the Reds’ recent streak of success is that more successful managers may find the Reds’ job more appealing. The franchise is on the last legs of the rebuild and is an appealing team.
Joe Girardi, for example, was a name tossed around mostly by fans as a potential hire last off-season. At the time, it seemed unlikely Girardi would go from a title contending team to one in a rebuild. Now, this upcoming winter, would a manager like Girardi more strongly consider a spot with the Reds when they go through the searching process?
If, after that process, Riggleman is the best candidate available, then that’s one thing. But skipping that process altogether would be a terrible decision.
In the same vein, the trade deadline will be a critical stretch for the Reds. While the Reds have become fun again, their horrid start to the season means that they’re still miles away from playoff contention. Because of that, it’s equally important for the Reds not to grow too fond of the assets they have and ensure they make the best move for the team to win next season and not next month.
Take Scooter Gennett, for example. He’s an All-Star second baseman who the Reds acquired for essentially nothing as a waiver claim. He’s a fan favorite who had one of the greatest moments in Reds history last season with his four-homer game.
He should be traded for a ton of reasons. His stock will never be higher. After spending much of the last year assuming he would regress this season, it appears Gennett might legitimately be one of the best offensive second basemen in the league. There’s a market for that. A large one.
More than that, second base is, by far, the deepest position in the Reds’ organization. The team moved star prospect Nick Senzel to second while fellow top-five prospect Shed Long is also a second baseman. Alex Blandino and Dilson Herrera are both on the active roster and are second basemen.
Moving Gennett could net the Reds are large return and fill one of the handful of holes left to make the Reds a contending team.
On the fringe side of the trade market, outfielders Adam Duvall and Billy Hamilton should be shopped heavily. Duvall should have been dealt two years ago in his All-Star season and his value has plummeted since. At this point, he probably has value as a bench bat and would open up the path for consistent playing time from Jesse Winker.
Hamilton, meanwhile, has been red-hot over nearly the last month. On one hand, you could convince yourself that he’s turning it around and that he’s finally figured it out. Or, it’s another hot spell Hamilton has been prone to in his inconsistent career. Instead of being sucked in once more, the Reds should capitalize on the hot streak and find a landing spot for Hamilton.
Players like Raisel Iglesias, Scott Schebler, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez and really anyone on the roster could be had for the right price. Iglesias, in particular, could bring in such a massive haul that it could bring the finishing pieces to the rebuild.
The Reds are on the brink of ending the rebuild. They’ll have to make a handful of critical moves that could morph this team out of the cellar and into a contender.
Cincinnati Reds Roster Breakdown: Non Roster Invitees
Let’s take a look at the non-roster invitees trying to make the Cincinnati Reds roster during this Spring Training
WELCOME BAAAAAAACK! The Reds kick off the 2021 season on Sunday with their first spring training game. As I do each spring training, I am going to take a look at the non roster invitees (NRI) and how they could impact the team this season.
R.J. Alaniz, Matt Ball, Cam Bedrosian, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle, Josh Osich, Branden Shipley, Bo Takahashi
You might recognize a couple of these names. Alaniz has been around the organization the past couple of years and pitched 11.2 innings with the Reds in 2019. Biddle was a guy who was around last year, but the others are new. Carle (76.1 in), Osich (206.1 in), Shipley (100 in) have experience in the show with moderate results. Cam Bedrosian is the name to know here. The fact that he was signed on with a minor league deal is surprising. 277.2 innings with a 3.70 ERA has been a solid MLB pitcher. 2019 batters hit .207/.283/.336 and in 2020 they hit .196/.276/.255. His spin rate is gritty darn good honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a minor league deal that really is a promise on the roster. Think Jose Iglesias who was also a NRI a couple years back. This allows the Reds to delay their decision on making a 40 man roster move.
For a team that lost Rasiel Iglesias, Bradley, maybe Antone and Lorenzen to the rotation, Bedrosian will have a chance to really earn a legit role with this team. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a scenario where Shipley or Carle get innings this year.
Bittle and Osich are lefties that would have battled for the other LHP spot in the pen, but the signing of Doolittle bumps them to depth roles.
A 33 year old catcher with 37 at bats and a career .108 avg. Id say that there is not much to see here. Stephenson and Tucker are the one two punch and the offseason addition of Deivy Grullon will provide a younger depth option with a higher upside than Gale.
Cheslor Cuthbert, Dee Strange-Gordon (not listed on Reds roster yet)
Cuthbert isn’t a household name, but he does have over 1,000 at bats in the MLB. He had a decent season in ’16 with the Royals batting .274/.318/.413 and 12 HR, but he hasn’t shown enough to be a full time MLB player. Corner infield depth.
Here’s where I stand on Dee….If he is here to battle for a utility role, that’s fine with me. If he is here to be some variation of an answer at SS, we are in trouble. A 32 year old poor defender (who on the Reds isn’t at this point) who doesn’t have any power and doesn’t get on base. Yeah, he has stolen some bases. We all know speed is one of the first things to go when you age, and he still has some jump, but I don’t think it’s game changing speed at this point, and it’s useless unless he’s on base. I’m not high on Strange Gordan making an impact.
Nicky Delmonico, Tyler Naquin, Dwight Smith
I was worried about the Reds outfield depth. It’s a sneaky need, especially of Aquino doesn’t bounce back. This group of NRI is a group I am excited about. All have MLB experience and have had their moments. Delmonico had a nice (small sample size) rookie year with the White Sox in 2017, but has been worse each year since then. It’s the other two that catch my eye.
Dwight Smith has shown he has some pop in his bat. He is the type of player that you want to have in AAA ready to fill in if needed. Tyler Naquin is a guy I think could actually contribute to this team. We know 2020 was a small sample size, but look at the hard hit and exit velo. And his outfield jump/Outs above avg. fit in well with the team that doesn’t seem to care about defense.
He had a great rookie year in ’16, and has had moments since. .288/.325/.467 10 HR 19 2B in 2019 would be a good bench bat. The question is…is he better than Aquino/Heineman/Payton? Him and Payton are the two leftieis of the group. At the very least, I think he is great organizational depth, and I think his floor is a higher floor than the group listed above (maybe Aquino can make me eat crow there)
This list is different than most years. Not as many players listed, and no prospects. The number of players at Spring Training will be smaller than years past. Overall, I think theres 2-3 guys who could earn a role on the Reds 2021 roster.
Monday Morning Manager: The Snell Effect
David Bell has many things he needs to go right in order to win games and get a contract extension. One thing he can control is a decision-making process that should not be made entirely analytically.
In case you lived under a rock last year (and that might be Truer than in any other year) then you know how the World Series went down with the Rays falling to the Dodgers. You may even know about Blake Snell’s improbable removal from Game Six when he was absolutely on fire. This is something David Bell cannot mess up in 2021.
Ok, so in the grand scheme of things, I’m talking about the correct managing of the bullpen and rotation in pressure situations. Most people will look at the Game Six managing of Kevin Cash and see two things: a man sticking to his system that got him there and a man over-thinking things. Neither thoughts are incorrect.
In this day and age of baseball, most people understand statistical evaluations on pitchers favoring removing a starter before they pitch to the opposing lineup for the third time in a game. Well, maybe, because the numbers are a bit different in 2020, small sample size, and all. In fact, the Reds pitching staff held opponents to a .599 OPS in 253 plate appearances the third time through the order, last year. That may be a smoke screen, though, as the 2019 Reds pitching staff (largely similar to 2020) allowed an OPS of .892 in 799 PA. That’s a bit of a more reliable sample size, which would leave me to believe a starter pitching a third time through the order isn’t the most favorable idea.
Also something David Bell must consider is the overthinking aspect. In this Player’s Tribune post by the man, Blake Snell, himself, he points out the immense effect that simply seeing someone warming up in the bullpen had on him. Now, you can say “Well, that shouldn’t have been an issue, he should have sucked it up and pitched!” The dude is a human being. If you saw the person management was likely to replace you with if you messed something up at your job, are you going to just keep on keeping on with no thought to look over your shoulder? If you are, you might be a Jedi. Most of us mere mortals have problems with worrying about what might happen if things fall apart. Baseball players are not totally immune to this, either.
In order for Bell to garner a contract extension, he will have to adeptly manage a pitching staff that has talent, but also has human egos. Just because the numbers say that a decision should go one way, the human element must also be factored in. Last I checked, theres no button for that on a calculator, which leaves it up to his own decision-making skill.
The Cincinnati Reds Optimal Lineup
Let’s look past the Opening Day Lineup to the lineup the Cincinnati Reds could have, if everything is going right.
There will be many things said/written about the Opening Day Lineup and what that should like for the Cincinnati Reds. With the first full team workout happening Monday, let’s take a look at what the lineup should look like if things are going well for the Reds, this season. I’m going to exclude positions for this experiment and you’ll see why.
- Shogo Akiyama – Ideally, Shogo will be getting on base much closer to the clip he posted in September than the one he did in August of last year. If he does this, he will be producing what the Reds hoped he would when they made him the first Japanese-born Cincinnati Red.
- Jesse Winker – He broke out in a big way in 2020 and was the Reds best hitter. There’s no reason to think that won’t, at the very least, continue and probably will even get better.
- Eugenio Suarez – He should be the Reds best hitter and I believe he will regain that title in 2021.
- Mike Moustakas – Moose has always been a run driver-inner and, if things are going well he will continue to do so.
- Nick Castellanos – he could be the third hitter, but it would be an amazing season, indeed, if he gets on-base at a higher clip than Geno.
- Joey Votto – this isn’t meant to be an insult, just realistic. I’ve seen and heard takes putting him in the three-spot. That’s a great idea in 2017. Now, any power should be considered a bonus with the main expectation of him being an on-base catalyst for the bottom of the lineup/turning over of the lineup.
- Nick Senzel – him being down here is more a hope that the top six indeed prove worthy to be top six. This is also hoping he’s healthy enough to play everyday, or almost everyday, and build up enough momentum to produce at the level he is capable of. Also, the not labelling defensive position thing is because he should be in the running as a shortstop option, but it sure feels like that’s not the case. Before you say, “Jeff, he’s not a shortstop…” who on this roster is? Get the best eight (nine if the NL miraculously gets the DH) in the lineup and worry about defense later. That’s pretty much how this roster is built, anyway.
- Tyler Stephenson – in a few years, he should be hitting in the middle of the order. In 2021, let’s keep the pressure on low and watch him thrive in the box.
- Pitcher (again, we’ll reassess if the players and owners ever get together and figure this out before the season begins, but we aren’t holding our breath).
This lineup could be pretty good…maybe. As fans we can hope, the folks who run the Reds should not lean on that. The lineup I propose should only be if each player is performing to the level that is expected of him. More than likely, this lineup will not happen, because it is doubtful every single bat bounces back in 2021.