Oh I’m sorry, am I supposed to write some fancy introduction here? You really didn’t want to just watch this over and over and over again?
After a rough start to the first half of the 2018 season, Castillo hasn’t looked back. Spanning back to the second half of 2018, he’s been rock solid, posting some phenomenal numbers. In 128 innings of work, he’s put up a 2.52 ERA, punching out 132 batters while only walking 32 of them.
All of this coming off the heels of that previously mentioned rough start in 2018 where an ERA of 5.70 in the first half had fans worried about his future. They thought wrong and here’s why. The xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching – basically a measure of variables a picture can control, while also replacing a pitcher’s home run total with how many homers they probably should be given credit for) states that he may have been just a bit unlucky with some home runs. Can I get a welcome to GABP anyone!? In the first half of 2018, his HR/FB% was touching an ungodly and almost unsustainable 18.4%, among qualified pitchers. That ranked 2nd worst only behind Cole Hamels. I mean it’s pretty insane to think that every fifth time Castillo turns his head around on a deep fly ball, it’s hitting the bleachers. On a side note, Sal Ramano and Tyler Mahle also pop up on the top 12. On three everybody! one, two, three, welcome to GABP!!!
This year however, the ball has bounced in Castillo’s favor. His HR/FB% is now sitting at 4.5% . Furthermore, last year his HR/9 topped out at 1.49, while this year it stands pat at 0.42, meaning he’s either found a way to neutralize the home run ball from the opposing hitter’s arsenal, or he’s getting extremely lucky after being extremely unlucky just a year before. The BABIP supports that as it stands at .245 . After all, with an ERA of 1.45, you have to be having a little bit of luck go your way.
Just about every major stat is an improvement from last year, including his strikeout rates which are also up from 8.8 to 10.4. Really, the only worry so far is his walks are slightly up from 2.6 to 3.5 . Part of this could be due to his pitching style. He really wants to bury that change-up or slider while he’s ahead and force the hitter to expand the zone. Hitters can pick up on that over time, and as a result they become more patient. Of course that isn’t always the case or else we wouldn’t be beaming over his numbers this year.
Lets talk fastballs and change-ups, because Castillo has a good combo going right now. In the perfect world, Castillo is going to use his heater, which tops out at just under 100 mph, to try and get ahead of the count.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs – blue squares indicate an average of .000
From the graph above, you can see it’s rare for a hitter to ambush Castillo on a first pitch fastball. So why not blow one past them and get ahead of the count early? After he does that, and statistics say he most likely is going to do that, he’s going to use his overpowering change-up to put the hitter away.
What makes me think that? Take a look.
Yep. According to this graph, in the 53 times Castillo has thrown a changeup while ahead of the count, no hitter has been able to turn it into a base hit. Basically at this point if you want to live, you have to keep fouling that pitch away and try and make him throw something else.
They call it the equalizer for a reason folks.
Although, he’s been gifted a little bit of luck this season, there’s no reason why Castillo can’t keep this hot streak going and make this season truly special. bWAR already has him down for 2.1 wins, which is already more than any Reds pitcher had last year (Which was also Castillo at 1.4 wins). In fact, if Castillo is able to keep up this pace, which would be extremely unlikely, but hey a man can dream right? He would tie Pedro Martinez’s 2000 season for most bWAR accrued by a pitcher in a single season (not counting dead-ball era pitchers for obvious reasons). Again, that’s most certainly not going to happen, but it does show how good Castillo has been out of the gate thus far, and how little attention it’s receiving. He’s not only been the ace of the Reds, he’s been the ace of the entire MLB. among qualified pitchers, he trails only Zach Davies and Marcus Stroman in ERA. It’s worth noting however that Castillo has more innings pitched than either of those two.
Enjoy it while it lasts Reds fans, we’ve been long overdue for a, dare I say it, ace? It seems we’ve finally found him. Thanks Miami, sorry not sorry.
Cincinnati Reds Roster Breakdown: Non Roster Invitees
Let’s take a look at the non-roster invitees trying to make the Cincinnati Reds roster during this Spring Training
WELCOME BAAAAAAACK! The Reds kick off the 2021 season on Sunday with their first spring training game. As I do each spring training, I am going to take a look at the non roster invitees (NRI) and how they could impact the team this season.
R.J. Alaniz, Matt Ball, Cam Bedrosian, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle, Josh Osich, Branden Shipley, Bo Takahashi
You might recognize a couple of these names. Alaniz has been around the organization the past couple of years and pitched 11.2 innings with the Reds in 2019. Biddle was a guy who was around last year, but the others are new. Carle (76.1 in), Osich (206.1 in), Shipley (100 in) have experience in the show with moderate results. Cam Bedrosian is the name to know here. The fact that he was signed on with a minor league deal is surprising. 277.2 innings with a 3.70 ERA has been a solid MLB pitcher. 2019 batters hit .207/.283/.336 and in 2020 they hit .196/.276/.255. His spin rate is gritty darn good honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a minor league deal that really is a promise on the roster. Think Jose Iglesias who was also a NRI a couple years back. This allows the Reds to delay their decision on making a 40 man roster move.
For a team that lost Rasiel Iglesias, Bradley, maybe Antone and Lorenzen to the rotation, Bedrosian will have a chance to really earn a legit role with this team. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a scenario where Shipley or Carle get innings this year.
Bittle and Osich are lefties that would have battled for the other LHP spot in the pen, but the signing of Doolittle bumps them to depth roles.
A 33 year old catcher with 37 at bats and a career .108 avg. Id say that there is not much to see here. Stephenson and Tucker are the one two punch and the offseason addition of Deivy Grullon will provide a younger depth option with a higher upside than Gale.
Cheslor Cuthbert, Dee Strange-Gordon (not listed on Reds roster yet)
Cuthbert isn’t a household name, but he does have over 1,000 at bats in the MLB. He had a decent season in ’16 with the Royals batting .274/.318/.413 and 12 HR, but he hasn’t shown enough to be a full time MLB player. Corner infield depth.
Here’s where I stand on Dee….If he is here to battle for a utility role, that’s fine with me. If he is here to be some variation of an answer at SS, we are in trouble. A 32 year old poor defender (who on the Reds isn’t at this point) who doesn’t have any power and doesn’t get on base. Yeah, he has stolen some bases. We all know speed is one of the first things to go when you age, and he still has some jump, but I don’t think it’s game changing speed at this point, and it’s useless unless he’s on base. I’m not high on Strange Gordan making an impact.
Nicky Delmonico, Tyler Naquin, Dwight Smith
I was worried about the Reds outfield depth. It’s a sneaky need, especially of Aquino doesn’t bounce back. This group of NRI is a group I am excited about. All have MLB experience and have had their moments. Delmonico had a nice (small sample size) rookie year with the White Sox in 2017, but has been worse each year since then. It’s the other two that catch my eye.
Dwight Smith has shown he has some pop in his bat. He is the type of player that you want to have in AAA ready to fill in if needed. Tyler Naquin is a guy I think could actually contribute to this team. We know 2020 was a small sample size, but look at the hard hit and exit velo. And his outfield jump/Outs above avg. fit in well with the team that doesn’t seem to care about defense.
He had a great rookie year in ’16, and has had moments since. .288/.325/.467 10 HR 19 2B in 2019 would be a good bench bat. The question is…is he better than Aquino/Heineman/Payton? Him and Payton are the two leftieis of the group. At the very least, I think he is great organizational depth, and I think his floor is a higher floor than the group listed above (maybe Aquino can make me eat crow there)
This list is different than most years. Not as many players listed, and no prospects. The number of players at Spring Training will be smaller than years past. Overall, I think theres 2-3 guys who could earn a role on the Reds 2021 roster.
Monday Morning Manager: The Snell Effect
David Bell has many things he needs to go right in order to win games and get a contract extension. One thing he can control is a decision-making process that should not be made entirely analytically.
In case you lived under a rock last year (and that might be Truer than in any other year) then you know how the World Series went down with the Rays falling to the Dodgers. You may even know about Blake Snell’s improbable removal from Game Six when he was absolutely on fire. This is something David Bell cannot mess up in 2021.
Ok, so in the grand scheme of things, I’m talking about the correct managing of the bullpen and rotation in pressure situations. Most people will look at the Game Six managing of Kevin Cash and see two things: a man sticking to his system that got him there and a man over-thinking things. Neither thoughts are incorrect.
In this day and age of baseball, most people understand statistical evaluations on pitchers favoring removing a starter before they pitch to the opposing lineup for the third time in a game. Well, maybe, because the numbers are a bit different in 2020, small sample size, and all. In fact, the Reds pitching staff held opponents to a .599 OPS in 253 plate appearances the third time through the order, last year. That may be a smoke screen, though, as the 2019 Reds pitching staff (largely similar to 2020) allowed an OPS of .892 in 799 PA. That’s a bit of a more reliable sample size, which would leave me to believe a starter pitching a third time through the order isn’t the most favorable idea.
Also something David Bell must consider is the overthinking aspect. In this Player’s Tribune post by the man, Blake Snell, himself, he points out the immense effect that simply seeing someone warming up in the bullpen had on him. Now, you can say “Well, that shouldn’t have been an issue, he should have sucked it up and pitched!” The dude is a human being. If you saw the person management was likely to replace you with if you messed something up at your job, are you going to just keep on keeping on with no thought to look over your shoulder? If you are, you might be a Jedi. Most of us mere mortals have problems with worrying about what might happen if things fall apart. Baseball players are not totally immune to this, either.
In order for Bell to garner a contract extension, he will have to adeptly manage a pitching staff that has talent, but also has human egos. Just because the numbers say that a decision should go one way, the human element must also be factored in. Last I checked, theres no button for that on a calculator, which leaves it up to his own decision-making skill.
The Cincinnati Reds Optimal Lineup
Let’s look past the Opening Day Lineup to the lineup the Cincinnati Reds could have, if everything is going right.
There will be many things said/written about the Opening Day Lineup and what that should like for the Cincinnati Reds. With the first full team workout happening Monday, let’s take a look at what the lineup should look like if things are going well for the Reds, this season. I’m going to exclude positions for this experiment and you’ll see why.
- Shogo Akiyama – Ideally, Shogo will be getting on base much closer to the clip he posted in September than the one he did in August of last year. If he does this, he will be producing what the Reds hoped he would when they made him the first Japanese-born Cincinnati Red.
- Jesse Winker – He broke out in a big way in 2020 and was the Reds best hitter. There’s no reason to think that won’t, at the very least, continue and probably will even get better.
- Eugenio Suarez – He should be the Reds best hitter and I believe he will regain that title in 2021.
- Mike Moustakas – Moose has always been a run driver-inner and, if things are going well he will continue to do so.
- Nick Castellanos – he could be the third hitter, but it would be an amazing season, indeed, if he gets on-base at a higher clip than Geno.
- Joey Votto – this isn’t meant to be an insult, just realistic. I’ve seen and heard takes putting him in the three-spot. That’s a great idea in 2017. Now, any power should be considered a bonus with the main expectation of him being an on-base catalyst for the bottom of the lineup/turning over of the lineup.
- Nick Senzel – him being down here is more a hope that the top six indeed prove worthy to be top six. This is also hoping he’s healthy enough to play everyday, or almost everyday, and build up enough momentum to produce at the level he is capable of. Also, the not labelling defensive position thing is because he should be in the running as a shortstop option, but it sure feels like that’s not the case. Before you say, “Jeff, he’s not a shortstop…” who on this roster is? Get the best eight (nine if the NL miraculously gets the DH) in the lineup and worry about defense later. That’s pretty much how this roster is built, anyway.
- Tyler Stephenson – in a few years, he should be hitting in the middle of the order. In 2021, let’s keep the pressure on low and watch him thrive in the box.
- Pitcher (again, we’ll reassess if the players and owners ever get together and figure this out before the season begins, but we aren’t holding our breath).
This lineup could be pretty good…maybe. As fans we can hope, the folks who run the Reds should not lean on that. The lineup I propose should only be if each player is performing to the level that is expected of him. More than likely, this lineup will not happen, because it is doubtful every single bat bounces back in 2021.