Connect with us

Cincinnati Reds

September Spin Zone

Jeff

Published

on

© Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

With the month of September here, and the regular season coming to an end, here are some things to look forward to with the Reds.

Billy Hamilton: He’s got his batting average to it’s annual point of “could he make the leap next year?” He sits at .244 on the season and has hit .264 since May 1st. His .312 on-base during that timeframe is nice to see. Those clamoring for a starting outfield devoid of Billy may be overruled by hope for future improvement, yet again, in 2019.

Jose Peraza: Some say he has not shown that he can be the every day shortstop for the Reds moving forward, but I disagree. While I will concede he has not shown the caliber of defense Reds fans were accustomed to with Zack Cozart, Peraza has been a revelation at the plate. He has curbed his strikeout rate to just above 10% and has the best isolated power of his career at .115 (which says he gets an extra base hit better than one out of every 10 hits. Comparatively, Joey Votto has a .133 ISO this year).

Scooter Gennett: The man just keeps on trucking. While there was a moment we thought he might hit a slump and sink below a .300 batting average, he bounced back in a big way. He claimed that average up to .320, which leads the National League and is fifth in the majors. The Reds will have a serious decision to make during the offseason, and I am not sure which way they are leaning. Gennett has proven to be a fan favorite and a good ball player. I’d bet on him receiving an extension if owner Bob Castellini makes the final decision.

Eugenio Suarez: Remember when the Reds signed him to an extension before the season and every Reds fan was just a little leery of it? How do you feel now? It is so nice to have this guy locked up long-term. I could run up the numbers, but if you’re reading this, there is a good chance you already know them. His jersey will be a target of mine this holiday season.

Joey Votto: Joseph Daniel is slightly worrisome. As I mentioned under Peraza, his ISO is at .133 which is just about half as much as it normally is. He still has the typical Vottoian OBP above .400 (currently .420) as he has finished below that threshold just once since 2008 (2014). Offseason-wise, he is under contract until 2023, so I’m pretty much penciling him in as retiring a Red.

Tucker Barnhart: His average is lower than last year’s .270 (.254, currently), but so is his batting average on balls in play (.291 this year as opposed to .312 last). That decrease in luck has not affected the rest of his numbers, though, as he sits on the precipice of 10 home runs and has a career-high walk rate of 11.4%. His defensive wins above replacement of 1.0 (a composite stat of the defensive prowess of a player) ranks second in the Major Leagues for catchers. The Reds have one of the better signal callers, in the game today.

Scott Schebler: Can he stay healthy? He has shown that he can hit well, just about anywhere in the lineup, and he has shown he is a defensively-serviceable outfielder. The problem is availability. He’s missed time on two separate occasions this year. He will be the 2019 Opening Day right fielder for the Reds, but it feels like they will need a good fourth outfielder…

Phil Ervin: …which is where my guy comes in! Despite a bit of a mini-slump, Mr. Magic has played well in his cup of coffee in the Majors. He has laid a base from which to improve on with a solid .348 OBP and, according to FanGraphs, he has produced 3.9 runs above the average MLB hitter. He’ll need to work on brining down the strikeout rate (currently at 20%) and improving his throwing accuracy, but he will be the Spring Training favorite to land the fourth outfielder spot, and may push Billy for everyday work.

Luis Castillo: Consistency, consistency, consistency. He’s still green, but looks like he will finish strong for the second-straight year. He has more quality starts (eight) than he does implosions (two) in his last 10 and has 57 Ks. He looks like the number two for next year, and may be the middle of rotation piece for the Reds (hopefully) forthcoming run of winning beginning next season.

Anthony DeSclafani: He’s been this year’s staff ace. Though not always dominant, he is mostly good, as his 3.99 xFIP will attest. He has gotten slightly unlucky with a career-high home run-to-fly ball ratio of 18.8% which is six percent higher than his last full season of pitching, in 2016. Also, a concern for him is durability. He is a solid number two, or three (depending on how active the Reds’ front office is in the pitching market, this offseason).

Sal Romano: Big Sal has looked, at times, like the back of the rotation innings eater that the Reds wanted out of him. He was unceremoniously moved to the bullpen after just a pair of rough starts, and may not get another chance, this year, to start. He has allowed just a run and a hit in 3.1 innings of relief while striking out a batter in each appearance.

Tyler Mahle: His exile to Louisville seems to have lasted longer than most fans thought whenever he was initially sent down. I’d expect to see him before the end of the season and hope that he gets one more start. He showed enough talent to lead me to believe that once he figures out this adjustment, he will be a fine rotation pitcher, moving forward.

Michael Lorenzen: Honestly, I think he is where he needs to be, the bullpen. Lorenzen works great as the chameleon reliever. If you need him in a tight, eighth-inning spot, he’s there. If you need him to eat up some innings after the starter falters, he can do that. Heck, if you need a home run, he can do that too. I like “Swiss army Lorenzen” and that should totally be his nickname.

Raisel Iglesias: Trade talks are sure to arise this offseason, and if they blow the Reds away, then sure, do it. But don’t just give him away. This front office needs to keep that Aroldis Chapman trade plastered to the wall as the quintessential failure of this rebuild. Thankfully, in the grand scheme of things, it was just a team trading away a closer, so it didn’t derail the rebuild, but it surely didn’t help it, either. Good closers are wasted on bad teams, but the Reds don’t figure to be bad in 2019. That needs to be take into account when it comes to deal or not to deal Iggy.

Lucas Sims: Give me more Lucas Sims!

Brandon Finnegan: Why happened to this guy? The Reds have been baffled by his sudden collapse this year and I’m not sure the light at the end of the tunnel is there. In 67.2 innings at Triple-A Louisville, he has a 7.05 ERA and has walked over five batters per nine innings. With non of his pitches eclipsing 92 MPH, I find it hard to believe he will turn things around any time soon.

I may continue this sort of post into the offseason, especially as transactions kick into gear after the playoffs. Let me know what you think! Tell me where you agree, and, definitely, tell me where I’m wrong. I’m wrong a lot.

Follow @LockedonReds and @jefffcarr on Twitter as well as @lockedonreds and @lockedonreds_jeffcarr on Instagram for more Reds content.

Jeff has spent his entire life around sports. From playing baseball and golf in high school to traveling with college softball, volleyball, and men’s basketball teams as their media relations guy, sports have always been his focal point. He’s pumped to be bringing Reds content to the Locked on Sports Podcast Network!

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Colorado Red

    September 4, 2018 at 11:29 pm

    The Offense is good.
    Disco, Lous are good.
    Mahle, has potential.
    Homer (our opening day starter) is terrible.
    No #5 to speak of.
    Overall, one of the worst rotations in baseball.
    unless something happens, we will lose 90 games for the foreseeable future.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Cincinnati Reds

Have Some Faith in The Rotation

The Cincinnati Reds are going to have eight bullpen arms on the everyday major league roster. Let’s make heads or tails of this.

Dave Pemberton

Published

on

© Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

For a large portion of the 2018 season the Cincinnati Reds carried eight relievers. While I absolutely hated it, I completely understood it. The Reds starting rotation was lucky to finish the sixth inning. Pitch counts often were creeping towards 100 pitches by the end of the fifth inning. The rotation itself, outside of Castillo and Harvey, seemed to be in constant flux due to injuries and poor performances.

On paper, the 2019 Cincinnnati Reds rotation appears to be about as middle of the road as you can get. Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Disco, Alex Wood and now Tyler Mahle are all at least middle of the rotation guys . They will eat innings for your team if nothing else. I am expecting these guys to put up 6 innings nearly every appearance. Hopefully they will add plenty of quality starts, to boot. Why would you need eight relievers to back them up?

Madison Bumgarner said it best when referring to the idea of a bullpen opener, “If you’re using an opener in my game, I’m walking right out of the ballpark.” I think it’s an insult to starting pitchers for their goal to be complete 5 innings and hand the rest off to the bullpen. This leads me to believe there will be one bullpen pitcher that is extremely under utilized when he could be getting innings in the minors.

Meanwhile, the Reds are showing more roster depth on the bench than we have ever seen in the past 20 years. Rather than opting to have a fifth bench player, with a solid bat, you would rather use that position for an excessive amount of relievers. Matt Kemp, Scott Schebler, Jose Iglesias, Derek Dietrich, Phillip Ervin and Nick Senzel are all bats that could be getting significant playing time in the majors. All of which will have a significant impact on scoring runs and winning games for this team. It makes zero sense to me how you can justify using that roster spot for a player who will, maybe, pitch one or two innings a week at most. I think it also shows little faith in a rejuvenated rotation. While I don’t believe or expect this rotation to be as good as the 2012 Reds. I do expect them not to be warming up the bullpen in the fifth inning nearly every night.

Continue Reading

Cincinnati Reds

Opening Day: Cincinnati’s Holiday

Opening Day for the Cincinnati Reds means so much more to this city than, pretty much, any other day.

Dave Pemberton

Published

on

No one does Opening Day like Cincinnati.

As an adult Opening Day is the only day I get to act like a kid again. No matter how good or bad the team is going to be, Opening Day in Cincinnati is always treated the same by the fan base. The one day of every year everyone who lives in the city has there minds on one thing…Cincinnati Reds baseball.

This year in particular is marked with serious celebration. The Cincinnati Reds are celebrating their 150th season since their beginnings in 1869 playing at the Union Ground close to Union Terminal. The annual holiday is also marked by the biggest yearly parade the town has to offer in the Findlay Markey Parade. The parade itself is celebrating it’s 100th anniversary this season. For a kid this is one of the coolest things you can witness as a Reds fan. All kinds of local high schools, kids baseball teams, local celebrities, local charities, veterans, former and even current Reds players participate.

Thanks to the lovely development of the riverbank area we are now able to take place in the most exciting party of the year. The Reds Opening Day Block Party at the Banks is THE event for Reds fan. Which, if you’re a baseball fan, is a guarenteed blast. Even better, the party raises a huge amount of money for the Reds Community Fund. There you can find all your local favorite foods (Skyline, LaRosa’s) lining the Banks with the cheapest alcohol you can find all season that close to the stadium. Live music and plenty of giveaways are passed out among the crowd. If mingling in the streets isn’t your fancy there are plenty of overly crowded restaurants where you can hang out. Most of them provide an exciting atmosphere during the game just like any other packed Reds game.

I personally have many experiences with Opening Day. In 1992, Opening Day also happened to fall upon my younger brother Adam’s arrival to planet Earth. When I arrived at the hospital I had zero interest in the newest addition to our family. I was more concerned about getting home in time to watch Opening Day and the NCAA Finals. At one of the mid 90’s Opening Days I was interviewed by the local news. The interview made me feel like a celebrity at the time. In 1996 I was a infuriated when after just a few pitches the game was cancelled because the umpire keeled over and never got back up. As an adult I feel terrible about that moment because he died from cardiac arrest. In the moment all I cared about was Opening Day.

I remember in 2000 being there to witness Ken Griffey Jr. for the first time in a Reds uniform. The Reds got what seemed to be a dream come true in the best player in the MLB at the time. Junior was the guy whose video game you owned, cleats you bought, and swing you emulated. We were going to be able to see him every night instead of just the highlights on Sportscenter. The team seemed to be on it’s way to becoming a powerhouse of the NL Central for years to come with his addition. The game itself was lackluster. It’s the only recorded tie 3-3 in the teams Opening Day history. Ultimately the hype exceeded reality with Junior’s tenure in Cincinnati. However, when he walked out on the field that day you would have thought the rebirth of the Big Red Machine took place.

I was present for Aaron Boone’s sac fly scoring Larkin in 2002, Joe Randa’s walk off homer in 2005, and Ramon Hernandez’s walk off in 2011. I have awkwardly ran into teachers and ex girlfriends during this holiday. However, my all time favorite Opening Day moment took place last year.

Opening Day 2018 I was interviewed by the local news. My brother was kind enough to take several still shots of my interview. Before I had even seen the footage he was kind enough to post a picture so amazing I want it shown at my funeral. Whenever they interview you on the news it usually will say your name and a short description about you. My description originally read Dave Pemberton: Reds Fan. My brother’s edited version said Dave Pemberton: Local Fat Kid. All of my close friends and family thought it was the funniest thing they’d ever seen. I loved it so much I used it as my fantasy football name. I guess this is payback for not wanting to hang out at the hospital with him when he was born on Opening Day all those years ago.

I hope all of Reds Country is able to participate and attend Opening Day at some point in their lives. Even those fair-weathered fans who have attended Opening Day will probably tell you it’s a must if you live in Cincinnati. For this Local Fat Kid it will always the best holiday of the year.

Continue Reading

Cincinnati Reds

Scooter Situation

Losing Scooter Gennett for the chunk of time they are about to, puts the pressure on the Cincinnati Reds from the word go.

Dave Pemberton

Published

on

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Scooter Gennett went down Friday afternoon with a groin injury. It was announced Saturday afternoon that he would be returning after 8-12 weeks. At best that puts him back in the middle of May and at worst middle of June.

Scooter is a vital part of this team. In his two years with the Cincinnati Reds, Scooter’s career has seen a revival. Gennett’s career in Cincinnati has totaled him a .303 AVG, .351 OBP, 50 HR, and tied a team best with Suarez for highest WAR in 2018 with 4.2. He was almost able to win a batting title last season on his way to an All-Star season. We must not also forget this guy wants to remain a Red after the 2019 season when his contract’s up. All the signs point toward Scooter putting up more amazing totals this year for the Reds. Missing Scooter for 2-3 months will have a significant impact on the teams win total.

On the surface there were three real options to replace Gennett till his return. This is in the order of how I expected the Reds to make this decision.

  1. Move Senzel to 2B for Opening Day. Get Senzel at least two months of playing time at the position he may very well start Opening Day in 2020. When Scooter returns move him back to CF.
  2. Derek Dietrich being left handed would be the second best option. Dietrich also has similar numbers to Iglesias at the plate.
  3. Jose Iglesias has played little at 2B but is a better glove than Dietrich. Move Pereza to 2B and Iglesias to SS as a temporary fix till Senzel is called up.

Dick Williams and David Bell announced today that the last option was what they are going to implement. As a part of that though they also announced Senzel will continue to play CF in Louisville and the Reds will roster Kyle Farmer on the bench to start the season. This move seems to go against the entire direction of moves the team has made this offseason. That direction being we are ready to win NOW.

This move to me says they are playing the baseball economics over winning now. On the surface this move can be justified as gaining one more year of contract control over Senzel. Schebler for what it’s worth put up stellar numbers in Spring Training. On paper he would be the better choice to start CF.

However as I said before Senzel’s time is NOW. If the Reds front office is serious about winning now there’s no reason Senzel doesn’t start in Scooter’s absence. Nick Senzel is ranked the number 6 top prospect in all of baseball. Many believe he could win batting titles in the future. Senzel has shown he’s willing to play anywhere to get himself on the roster. He’s put up a .314 AVG and .390 OBP during his minor league career. I personally think once he is given the opportunity he’s going to be the frontrunner for the Rookie of The Year. I’m a big fan of history. History shows when the Reds tried doing this last year it backfired horrendously when Senzel ended up needing season ending surgery. Why wouldn’t you want that guy on your team as soon as possible?

I truly hope this is just us getting worked up over nothing. Leading to Senzel seeing serious playing time in just two weeks as the starting 2B. While in between Iglesias, Dietrich, and Farmer are able to start out the season on fire. Otherwise the front office needs to be more up front with there plans on Nick Senzel. Finally I probably shouldn’t complain about this at all. None of these options are bad at all. After all none of the players mentioned as replacements were named Gosselin, Pennington, Kivlehan, Alcantara, Dixon, or Herrera.

Continue Reading

Trending